b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 all within the MoE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 538's House Forecast is LIVE 2020 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest forecasts and polls for the 2020 House elections by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Democrats are "clearly favored" to keep the House. This also, like 2018, has a cartogram that shows who is favored in each seat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 40 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: all within the MoE The poll with MJ 1 point away is an outlier, but it is neat to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, Massdriver said: The poll with MJ 1 point away is an outlier, but it is neat to see. Possible that it's movement toward Hagar? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Possible that it's movement toward Hagar? It's possible, but we need more polls showing it: 2020 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest forecasts and polls for the 2020 Senate elections by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 How Did Lindsey Graham End Up In Such A Close Race? | FiveThirtyEight FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Recent polls of the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina have found third-term Sen. Lindsey Graham effectively tied in his contest against Democrat Jaime Harrison… Why Democrats regularly get a large percentage of votes in South Carolina despite rarely winning: Quote South Carolina is not that Republican-leaning The polls suggest that at least 45 percent of voters in South Carolina back Harrison, and that’s not an usually high number for a Democrat running in the Palmetto State. Forty-five percent of South Carolinians voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and 44 percent did in 2012.1 In 2018, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in South Carolina received 46 percent of the vote, and the Democratic attorney general candidate 45 percent. Joe Biden seems likely to get at least 45 percent of the state’s vote too. The reason: The makeup of South Carolina’s electorate is relatively good for Democrats (up to a point). Graham is polling behind Trump: Quote Recent polls show Trump near or above 50 percent in South Carolina, but the state’s senior senator only in the mid-to-high 40s. So there is almost certainly a small bloc of South Carolinians currently backing Trump but not Graham. ... A recent Morning Consult survey found that 84 percent of South Carolina Republican voters backed Graham, compared to 93 percent who supported the president. Similarly, according to a recent Data for Progress poll, 95 percent of South Carolina Republicans supported Trump, compared to 89 percent who backed Graham. Why Republicans are still suspicious of Graham: Quote Indeed, Jordan Ragusa, a political science professor at the College of Charleston, said that some voters skeptical of Graham, including Republicans, might view him as an “opportunist.” “The joke in South Carolina is Lindsey Graham can count to six … His voting behavior changes when he is up for reelection,” Ragusa said. (Senators are up for reelection every six years.) "Most white voters in South Carolina don’t vote for Democrats … ever" Quote White voters in the South also tend to be consistently Republican. That is, they don’t really swing between the two parties as they do in a state like Iowa, where Biden could do 6 to 9 percentage points better than Hillary Clinton did four years ago. At FiveThirtyEight, we call this phenomenon “elasticity” — basically, how many voters in a state are persuadable vs. always vote for one party or the other. And South Carolina is one of the most inelastic states. I learned a while ago that South Carolina is "inelastic." The last quote is important on that one -- it's why Michigan voted for Trump after voting for Obama by 16 points in 2008, but why South Carolina gave Obama 44/45 percent of the vote and Hillary around 40/41. Harrison can win, and I wouldn't be shocked. I also wouldn't be shocked if he lost with 48%. Hope your S. Carolina friends vote Harrison in droves! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_MH Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Graham must be really hurting for money. I do believe this is the first time I've ever seen a donation request from an out of state senator wind up in my mailbox. Emails from campaigns? All the time. Letters? Ha. That's some postage going straight in the trash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 Harrison says take a COVID test or no debate today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Graham won't take a test because if he's positive then they will have to delay the ACB hearings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just your daily reminder that the whole party is fucking insane. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Kinda cute doe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 hours ago, mclumber1 said: Kinda cute doe Never stick your dick in crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amazatron Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Lindsey tried strong arming, it didn’t go well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Healthcare is still the issue dems should be hammering these morons on over and over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 When you're in the booth voting for Joe Biden, vote for me so he can't do anything! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Lady G talking dirty 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Jason said: Lady G talking dirty I got rock hard reading that. Does that make me gay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Sen. Lindsey Graham says Black people are free to 'go anywhere' in South Carolina so long as they're conservative WWW.MSN.COM "You just need to be conservative, not liberal," Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said. Jesus christ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 The tweet with the video isn't loading for me. Is it as bad as it sounds or does he mean "going places" in the metaphorical sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jason said: The tweet with the video isn't loading for me. Is it as bad as it sounds or does he mean "going places" in the metaphorical sense? I assume he means the latter. Still a very awkward way of putting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricofoley Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Getting back to the House stuff further up, as it shows, Dems could make a run at that Alaska seat, and something I didn't realize until I saw it pointed out a few days ago is that if they win Alaska then the GOP would no longer have a state-by-state advantage in delegations if we somehow got to the nightmare 269-269 electoral college scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ricofoley said: Getting back to the House stuff further up, as it shows, Dems could make a run at that Alaska seat, and something I didn't realize until I saw it pointed out a few days ago is that if they win Alaska then the GOP would no longer have a state-by-state advantage in delegations if we somehow got to the nightmare 269-269 electoral college scenario. Why do you guys do this to yourselves? A tie isn't going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 9 hours ago, Jason said: The tweet with the video isn't loading for me. Is it as bad as it sounds or does he mean "going places" in the metaphorical sense? It sounds literal to me. It's like if the word uppity had a video example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finaljedi Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 16 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: Healthcare is still the issue dems should be hammering these morons on over and over. I worked in health insurance for a few years and that shit is mostly regulated at the state level and it can vary pretty wildly from state to state in just the areas I worked in. I've always wondered what selling across state lines really meant from a regulatory perspective. Is it incredibly strict like California or some anything goes shit like a good chunk of the midwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 6 hours ago, finaljedi said: I worked in health insurance for a few years and that shit is mostly regulated at the state level and it can vary pretty wildly from state to state in just the areas I worked in. I've always wondered what selling across state lines really meant from a regulatory perspective. Is it incredibly strict like California or some anything goes shit like a good chunk of the midwest. Yeah, I think its just one of those things that they think sounds good till they actually have to figure out how it works, cause selling across statelines is meaningless if that insurer still has to conform to the states regulations meaning they'd have to create a separate group for that state anyways and you're back where you were. The other option is you strip a states right to regulate it and create a national standard and then you're stuck with wtf does that look like, and could literally change on a whim when federal control changes parties, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Yeah, I think its just one of those things that they think sounds good till they actually have to figure out how it works, cause selling across statelines is meaningless if that insurer still has to conform to the states regulations meaning they'd have to create a separate group for that state anyways and you're back where you were. The other option is you strip a states right to regulate it and create a national standard and then you're stuck with wtf does that look like, and could literally change on a whim when federal control changes parties, lol. Third option: you prevent states from stopping sales of insurance issued access state lines, so it becomes a race to the bottom for business friendly regulations, kinda like how many credit cards are/were (?) Issued from like south dakota because of their usury laws allowed the issuance of high interest cards on favorable terms for the issuer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 24 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Third option: you prevent states from stopping sales of insurance issued access state lines, so it becomes a race to the bottom for business friendly regulations, kinda like how many credit cards are/were (?) Issued from like south dakota because of their usury laws allowed the issuance of high interest cards on favorable terms for the issuer Thats option 2, and like i said could change simply because a different party took power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finaljedi Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Third option: you prevent states from stopping sales of insurance issued access state lines, so it becomes a race to the bottom for business friendly regulations, kinda like how many credit cards are/were (?) Issued from like south dakota because of their usury laws allowed the issuance of high interest cards on favorable terms for the issuer It still applies to the state where the person resides or the claim is filed. BCBS plans are already sold across state lines. Like if you work for Walmart you’ll have a BCBSAR plan no matter what state you’re in and the provider file with the local BCBS plan and it gets transmitted to whatever plan company you hold. But that’s because the BCBS Association set up that whole plan to plan infrastructure. I just think it’s a “solution” that will just lead us back to shitty useless health plans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 24 minutes ago, finaljedi said: I just think it’s a “solution” that will just lead us back to shitty useless health plans That's it right there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 GOP better start hoping for shy senate voters at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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