~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

[Guest]

2 hours ago, osxmatt said:

 

I’ve seen a lot of people talking about this and I think misunderstanding it. Correct me if I’m wrong! Note that Oz says total mortality, not mortality rate.

 

Assume with schools remaining closed that 100,000 die in the US as a result of Covid, Lancet is saying 102,000-104,000 will die if we send kids back to school earlier.

 

The question is then is there a worse consequence to the generation wrecking education situation we are creating and may not recover from than the 2-4,000 additional lives lost, especially when those are primarily going to be old folks? 

[Firewithin]

9 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

lets get those tallies going for the blue govs coming out and saying fuck off and the red govs bootlicking to own the libs 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, JPDunks4 said:

 

As someone that has gotten all our SBA Loans approved and funded pretty easily, we are using it to keep our roughly 500 employees employed during all this.  Using the funds to give extra pay as well as additional paid time off when its all over.

 

Small businesses vary so much in business models and everything else, that no matter what he gov't came up with, there would be issues.  Honestly the best way would be based on a P&L instead of just strictly Payroll costs.  Businesses with low Payrolls, this doesn't work that well for.  The restaurant industry, which is what I am in, this works out pretty well for us since Payroll costs are a huge portion of our costs.  

 

As long as things don't drastically change in the next few months, we should be using essentially 100% of the loan on payroll costs, so it should essentially all be forgiven.  

Not all businesses will be able to use it in the same way though.

 

 

 

 

Correct, the main problem is that the SBA themselves chose an implementation (the 75% rule)  that cuts out a ton of businesses from being in a position to get forgiveness. They could have just required that your ratios stay the same as your 12 month average, so if the forgivable expenses were 40/40/20 payroll/rent/utilities, you just needed to stay in that 40/40/20 ratio.

 

Hope you and your fam are hanging in there! I know a lot of my restaurant friends are struggling more and more with each passing week  

[PaladinSolo]

Safer in numbers isn't just a coastal elitist strategy.

[69los]

7 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Safer in numbers isn't just a coastal elitist strategy.

 

 

Did the numbers and that's almost half the population in 17 states. I hope the DMV follows suit.

[osxmatt]

2 minutes ago, 69los said:

 

 

Did the numbers and that's almost half the population in 17 states. I hope the DMV follows suit.

 

A collection of states, working together as one.

 

There may be something to this.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Bolsonaro fires popular health minister after dispute over coronavirus response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister

Quote

Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro has sacked his popular health minister Luiz Mandetta after a weeks-long standoff between the two men over radically different views of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

[Nokra]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

 

I can just see Trump requiring the networks to air this conference and then later bragging about his excellent ratings.

[Jason]

 

[Jason]

20 minutes ago, 69los said:

 

 

Did the numbers and that's almost half the population in 17 states. I hope the DMV follows suit.

 

It seems like it makes the most sense for DC, Maryland, and Virginia to join in on the northeastern group and make it the Northeast Corridor (as in Amtrak) coalition.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

It seems like it makes the most sense for DC, Maryland, and Virginia to join in on the northeastern group and make it the Northeast Corridor (as in Amtrak) coalition.

ABSOLUTELY NOT!

 

THE SOVEREIGNTY OF THE IMPERIAL COMMONWEALTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED!

[skillzdadirecta]

1 hour ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

ABSOLUTELY NOT!

 

THE SOVEREIGNTY OF THE IMPERIAL COMMONWEALTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED!

I thought Maryland already threw in with the North Eastern Alliance?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

4 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

I thought Maryland already threw in with the North Eastern Alliance?

That's the infidels in Delaware.

[PaladinSolo]

DMV is already working together.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

ABSOLUTELY NOT!

 

THE SOVEREIGNTY OF THE IMPERIAL COMMONWEALTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED!

 

Fine, the Northeastern Hegemony will just sever the Amtrak tracks at the Delaware/Maryland border.

[Jason]

He's doing his "my meany pants aides are making me read this bullshit" low energy voice right now.

 

 

[Jason]

Meanwhile, a press conference from a real leader:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Totally normal plutocracy:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Never waste a good crisis:

 

 

[skillzdadirecta]

Chris Coumo just said on CNN that he wouldn't be surprised if this thing has been floating around in The States since October. It could be his frustration talking since he himself has had it for awhile and his wife just got diagnosed but... damn.

[CitizenVectron]

1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Chris Coumo just said on CNN that he wouldn't be surprised if this thing has been floating around in The States since October. It could be his frustration talking since he himself has had it for awhile and his wife just got diagnosed but... damn.

 

Based on what we know of hospitalization rates, if it was in the US since October we would have seen hospitals inundated in January, so I don't think it's been there that long.

[skillzdadirecta]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Based on what we know of hospitalization rates, if it was in the US since October we would have seen hospitals inundated in January, so I don't think it's been there that long.

One possible reason, is that like the flu, this virus is more transmissible in dry cold weather. I believe we had a warmer than normal fall in 2019 so if the Coronavirus is like the flu, the peak transmission season for it would have been December and January. That doesn't mean that it wasn't around, that just mean the rate of transmission could have been lower.

 

I'm not saying that it WAS around in the Fall... I'm saying given how little we know about this virus, nobody should be making any definitive statements regarding it.

[Jason]

11 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

One possible reason, is that like the flu, this virus is more transmissible in dry cold weather. I believe we had a warmer than normal fall in 2019 so if the Coronavirus is like the flu, the peak transmission season for it would have been December and January. That doesn't mean that it wasn't around, that just mean the rate of transmission could have been lower.

 

I'm not saying that it WAS around in the Fall... I'm saying given how little we know about this virus, nobody should be making any definitive statements regarding it.

 

Isn't it still spreading in Australia though? Where it was summer a couple of months ago.

[skillzdadirecta]

14 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Isn't it still spreading in Australia though? Where it was summer a couple of months ago.

Australia has had low instances of Coronavirus compared to other Western countries... they've jumped on it early and implemented social distancing and are testing aggressively but they aren't taking their foot off the gas.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-australia-handled-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-4

 

Quote

Australia, which has a population of nearly 25 million people, has had 6,468 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and just 63 deaths. At least 380,000 people — 1.5% of the population — have been tested for the virus.

 

It's spreading in Ecuador and Africa too where it's been warm but they are moving into their Fall/Winter as we move into our Spring/Summer  and people are worried that it's going to explode there as they move into their flu season.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/africa-covid-19-time-bomb-defuse/

 

Here is an article discussing how weather may affect the transmission and infection rate of Coronavirus.

 

https://www.livescience.com/warmer-weather-slow-coronavirus-spread.html

 

Quote

Like some other respiratory viruses such as the flu, is there a chance that the new coronavirus will spread less as temperatures increase? 

A new study has found that the new coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, didn't spread as efficiently in warmer and more humid regions of the world as it did in colder areas. Though the early analysis, published in the journal Social Science Research Network, is still under review, it provides a glimpse into what we might expect in the warmer months to come. 

 

 

[Jason]

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said:

I'm not saying that it WAS around in the Fall... I'm saying given how little we know about this virus, nobody should be making any definitive statements regarding it.

Genome sequencing does definitively tell us the path of the virus though. The cases we are seeing in the US are further down the chain from cases from China in December. If you have a mutation down stream of a case from mid December in China, you couldn't have had it earlier than mid December. We would need to find evidence of somebody with the a virus that is earlier in the chain than the mid December cases in China to show that it was around earlier than that.

[skillzdadirecta]

We haven’t tested anywhere near the amount of people to say “we definitely know the path of the virus” Right now only people who show symptoms are getting tests. We don’t know how many asymptomatic carriers are out there or how many folks have had it and are carrying the antibodies. We don’t know. Until there’s widespread testing, we won’t know how widespread this thing is or how many people have been exposed to it or when...  again this isn’t me saying this. It’s the doctors and scientists 

[Ricofoley]

Oh.

[Kal-El814]

I don’t think there’s any credible data at this point suggesting covid was going around the US in October 2019. 

[CitizenVectron]

41 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

We haven’t tested anywhere near the amount of people to say “we definitely know the path of the virus” Right now only people who show symptoms are getting tests. We don’t know how many asymptomatic carriers are out there or how many folks have had it and are carrying the antibodies. We don’t know. Until there’s widespread testing, we won’t know how widespread this thing is or how many people have been exposed to it or when...  again this isn’t me saying this. It’s the doctors and scientists.

 

I don't think anyone is saying it's impossible, just that all of the evidence we have points to it coming to NA sometime in Jan or Feb, whereas we have no evidence that it was earlier.

[SilentWorld]

49 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

We haven’t tested anywhere near the amount of people to say “we definitely know the path of the virus” Right now only people who show symptoms are getting tests. We don’t know how many asymptomatic carriers are out there or how many folks have had it and are carrying the antibodies. We don’t know. Until there’s widespread testing, we won’t know how widespread this thing is or how many people have been exposed to it or when...  again this isn’t me saying this. It’s the doctors and scientists 

What scientists? 

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

We haven’t tested anywhere near the amount of people to say “we definitely know the path of the virus” Right now only people who show symptoms are getting tests. We don’t know how many asymptomatic carriers are out there or how many folks have had it and are carrying the antibodies. We don’t know. Until there’s widespread testing, we won’t know how widespread this thing is or how many people have been exposed to it or when...  again this isn’t me saying this. It’s the doctors and scientists 

You’re confusing things. Genomic testing doesn’t need to be wide spread, not at all. The purpose of it is to track how the virus mutates as it moves through time. 
 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/coronaviruss-genetics-reveal-its-global-travels-67183

 

We can very easily see the path a virus took by doing genome sequencing on just a few cases of the virus to see which strain birthed the next. 

[skillzdadirecta]

26 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

You’re confusing things. Genomic testing doesn’t need to be wide spread, not at all. The purpose of it is to track how the virus mutates as it moves through time. 
 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/coronaviruss-genetics-reveal-its-global-travels-67183

 

We can very easily see the path a virus took by doing genome sequencing on just a few cases of the virus to see which strain birthed the next. 

The genome sequencing you keep referencing only goes far back as the known cases that they confirmed in the US in March. They can't sequence the genome of anything earlier than that because they weren't looking for cases back in December or earlier. WE DON'T KNOW how far back this thing goes.

 

31 minutes ago, SilentWorld said:

What scientists? 

Besides the articles I've already posted describing the possibility of COVID infections in The States prior to the first confirmed case? There's this one...

 

Quote

Experts say it's plausible that coronavirus came over to the U.S. from China before that first January case, but more testing is needed to be sure. 

"Anecdotally, we've heard about some influenza-like illnesses in December and January that were a little bit atypical," said Dr. Luis Ostrosky, a professor of infectious diseases at McGovern Medical School at UTHealth in Houston. "But the thing we need to solve that puzzle is when we actually start doing testing of antibodies, not just detecting the virus." 

Ostrosky said that would include taking a look at blood samples from December and January to see if the virus was already in circulation. 

 

Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said he believes when researchers do more testing, they will probably find the disease was in the U.S. earlier than first believed. 

"I believe at the end of this, when we do look back – and we will – we will probably find that this disease was here earlier than we thought," he said. "We also know that when we closed our borders, it was very, very leaky." 

However, Benjamin said it's "plausible but not likely" that the coronavirus was in the United States in November and December. If it were in the U.S. before the end of the year, the case would also have likely been connected to travel from China, he said, and likely not widespread. 

 

That's two scientists there in that article. Again I'm not saying that beyond a shadow of a doubt that the virus was here prior to the first confirmed cases. I'm saying WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE and until we do more widespread testing we won't know. 

 

 

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

The genome sequencing you keep referencing only goes far back as the known cases that they confirmed in the US in March. They can't sequence the genome of anything earlier than that because they weren't looking for cases back in December or earlier. WE DON'T KNOW how far back this thing goes.

That is false. The first known case in the US in the genome sequences on Nextstrain is from January. But that’s not the point, the earliest case they know of is in the region where Wuhan is, and there are no variants of the virus genome that predate that anywhere in the world, but you can directly trace the mutation from that point to the US cases in January. There are no strains of the virus that don’t come from the origin point in Hubei province.

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

That is false. The first known case in the US in the genome sequences on Nextstrain is from January. But that’s not the point, the earliest case they know of is in the region where Wuhan is, and there are no variants of the virus genome that predate that anywhere in the world, but you can directly trace the mutation from that point to the US cases in January. There are no strains of the virus that don’t come from the origin point in Hubei province.

 

This is the key thing - all tested cases in the US (for genome tracing) show the Wuhan version as a predecessor from December. If there were cases that appeared in the US earlier than that (and spread), then some percentage would show the Dec Wuhan strain as a non-predecessor.