Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Comparisons are typically made between the interests rates of the Treasury's 2-year note and the 10-year note to determine the future direction of the economy. Normally, the interest rate on the 10-year note is higher than that of the 2-year note. This is logical because the longer time horizon to maturity means greater risk which requires a greater return in the form of a higher interest rate. However, in the last few months, these yield curves have begun to converge and are very close to "inversion" whereby the yield on the 2-year note exceeds that of the 10-year note. What this means is that the 2-year note is "riskier" than the 10-year one, a situation that really only occurs when the bond market expects an economic contraction or a recession. Right now the yield curve is the flattest its been since 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just in time to hamstring another Democratic president! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said: Just in time to hamstring another Democratic president! One isn't getting elected in 2020 so you don't have to worry about that! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Just in time to hamstring another Democratic president! I still think the bigger timing issue is that Trump can tell people the downturn is the fault of the Dems because everything was great until they won big in the midterms. And people will fall for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 58 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: One isn't getting elected in 2020 so you don't have to worry about that! There's literally no one who can appease the large progressive wing and the spineless, mushy centrist wing. Add in the racial and gender tinderbox that is the Democratic party and the general stupidity and susceptibility to dumb social media propaganda by the American electorate, we're in for 8 years of trump, should we be so unfortunate that his cheeseburger diet doesn't take him first Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Dems just won the midterms vote by the largest percentage in a century with the highest turn out in decades, "dems in disarray" though. The president always takes the blame for the economy BTW, always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The lags have varied, so it could take over a year after inversion for the official recession to start, but definitely count on some pain in 2019/2020 if it inverts soon. And, yes, Trump might get stuck with the blame, but that doesn’t mean the Dems won’t, too. Recession rage knows no political allegiances amongst the populace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: The lags have varied, so it could take over a year after inversion for the official recession to start, but definitely count on some pain in 2019/2020 if it inverts soon. And, yes, Trump might get stuck with the blame, but that doesn’t mean the Dems won’t, too. Recession rage knows no political allegiances amongst the populace. Electorally it doesn't bode well for the president and his party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not that I know what the fuck I am talking about, but the NYC/JC housing market has suffered a pretty steep decline over the last 9 months. I wonder if it's a sign of things to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nokra Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 17 hours ago, sblfilms said: I still think the bigger timing issue is that Trump can tell people the downturn is the fault of the Dems because everything was great until they won big in the midterms. And people will fall for it. Out of curiosity, what would be your Cliff-Notes-version, serious answer to someone arguing this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The markets are off to a fine start this morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwinIon Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jason said: I'm so tired of all this winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 MAGA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 500 would be a good thing at this point, now down 650. Quote of the day from CNBC, lol. "There's concern that the trade deal is not as good as [President Donald] Trump said it was," said Mark Esposito, CEO of Esposito Securities. "Recession fears are also settling into the market." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 This is going to puts significant pressure on the Fed's plans for more rate hikes, more so than the Imbecile's tweets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I was told there would be winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 hours ago, osxmatt said: I was told there would be winning. We got tired of it so we stopped, as it was foretold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: 500 would be a good thing at this point, now down 650. Quote of the day from CNBC, lol. "There's concern that the trade deal is not as good as [President Donald] Trump said it was," said Mark Esposito, CEO of Esposito Securities. "Recession fears are also settling into the market." It recovered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Jose said: It recovered. It recovered because of a report in the WSJ that the Fed may pause its planned rate hikes in 2019. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Oh hey the stock market rebounded nicely today. TAKE THAT LIBCUCKS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: Oh hey the stock market rebounded nicely today. TAKE THAT LIBCUCKS! Huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Our trade war with China isn't helping, even though I am tired of China stealing IP. It would be nice if Trump lifted all our tariffs on everyone else. We are overdue for a recession. The bond market is starting to show it. Higher rates are going to start hitting all these companies that borrowing a bunch for dividends and buybacks. I just don't think our economy can handle rates going up much more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Fell to a new low for 2018 today, and is on pace for largest December drop since 1931 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Fell to a new low for 2018 today, and is on pace for largest December drop since 1931 Alternative take: DOW down only 800 points on the year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Fell to a new low for 2018 today, and is on pace for largest December drop since 1931 And remember, tariffs were a huge contributor to making the Great Depression happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: Fell to a new low for 2018 today, and is on pace for largest December drop since 1931 And December is normally a very good month for stocks. Only 25 December’s have posted a loss since 1931. That’s 87 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 This seems long overdue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 At this stage, the Fed really does appear to be raising interest rates simply with the intention of cutting them when the slowdown finally arrives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, SFLUFAN said: At this stage, the Fed really does appear to be raising interest rates simply with the intention of cutting them when the slowdown finally arrives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Exactly - there are no "economic fundamentals" reasons for a rate hike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, SFLUFAN said: Exactly - there are no "economic fundamental" reasons for a rate hike. We must raise rates now so that we can cut rates when a recession hits in part due to our rate hikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: We must raise rates now so that we can cut rates when a recession hits in part due to our rate hikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: Every fed chair who came of age in the late 70s/early 80s needs to resign. This isn't the age of the inflation boogieman. We're losing a generation to student debt and out of reach high asset prices, and they're single-mindedly focusing on something that isn't there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted December 19, 2018 Author Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Every fed chair who came of age in the late 70s/early 80s needs to resign. This isn't the age of the inflation boogieman. We're losing a generation to student debt and out of reach high asset prices, and they're single-mindedly focusing on something that isn't there It's essentially a residual cognitive holdover from the days of the gold standard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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