I was wrong

[Fizzzzle]

I didn't expect the sudden explosion of support for Kamala Harris. I fully expected Biden to lose to Trump, but I thought Kamala would do worse. Maybe I'm just a pessimist.

 

I was wrong. She's fucking killing it. 

 

We'll see how she carries the Midwest, which has become the battleground that decides everything

[finaljedi]

Hey, me too.  I figured it was too late to swap and didn’t expect the democrats to get their shit together in a way they hadn’t ever before.

[Spork3245]

As I said many times, “I hope I’m wrong”. I never expected Dems to actually unite as overwhelmingly as they have.

[S3xB0t]

As the great Michael Scott once said, “It takes a big man to admit his mistake, and I am that big man.”

[Greatoneshere]

1 hour ago, Spork3245 said:

As I said many times, “I hope I’m wrong”. I never expected Dems to actually unite as overwhelmingly as they have.

 

Yeah, same. Also, I thought the Dems would do something stupid like chaos and an open convention in August with only 2 months to go by then before the election. Surprisingly, so far Dems have handled this great by sticking with Harris and uniting aggressively. Let's hope it holds.

[finaljedi]

1 minute ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

Yeah, same. Also, I thought the Dems would do something stupid like chaos and an open convention in August with only 2 months to go by then before the election. Surprisingly, so far Dems have handled this great by sticking with Harris and uniting aggressively. Let's hope it holds.

 

It didn't help that you had powerful dipshits talking about "blitz primaries" to the press.  But once it happened all the other contenders all lined up behind Harris to kill that "dems in disarray" story.   The Republicans were caught unprepared because "he's old" doesn't quite work when Biden is gone and they're stuck with a 78 year old moron.  Then the Democrats hit the ground running with trickling out the weird things Vance said when he was running for Senate coalescing around the surprisingly effective "He's weird" label that has stuck.  Just as that had run its course Trump serves up a nice hot bowl of racism, because they have to circle the wagons you now have a bunch of white people letting America know who's black and who isn't.

 

Even if you had faith that it would work, I don't think anyone could have seen this coming.

[Firewithin]

3 hours ago, Fizzzzle said:

, but I thought Kamala would do worse.

this can still be true

 

/doomer

[Reputator]

I think this is one of those times we're all happy to be wrong.

[Best]

While I agree with everyone here, I still think everyone is still in the honeymoon phase. Everyone was just so glad to get Biden out and then Harris came in strong giving life back to the dems. We were really down and out after the debate meltdown.

 

But still, I think the reaction is still better than everyone was anticipating. She is going strong while Trump completely fucked up the assassination attempt to gain more ground. 

 

The recent convention in Chicago was a complete disaster and will have a big impact in November. Trump is making life for Harris easier. 

[finaljedi]

4 minutes ago, Best said:

While I agree with everyone here, I still think everyone is still in the honeymoon phase. Everyone was just so glad to get Biden out and then Harris came in strong giving life back to the dems. We were really down and out after the debate meltdown.

 

But still, I think the reaction is still better than everyone was anticipating. She is going strong while Trump completely fucked up the assassination attempt to gain more ground. 

 

The recent convention in Chicago was a complete disaster and will have a big impact in November. Trump is making life for Harris easier. 

 

I think they kind of needed the assassination attempt not to be one of their own that had tipped over to proper psycho.  If it had been some left wing radical with shitloads of Antifa posts and whatnot then they would never ever shut up about it.

[Massdriver]

She has done far better than I thought. I'm still wrapping my head around this. I question whether or not she can keep it up, but she doesn't have to for very long since her campaign will be so short. 

[Massdriver]

It would be a mistake to start believing Harris is going to win. I am still expecting a Trump victory. As good as Harris is doing, it's basically statistically tied right now and polling is not reliable enough when it's this close. Psychologically prepare for a Trump victory. 

[Reputator]

31 minutes ago, Best said:

While I agree with everyone here, I still think everyone is still in the honeymoon phase. Everyone was just so glad to get Biden out and then Harris came in strong giving life back to the dems. We were really down and out after the debate meltdown.

 

But still, I think the reaction is still better than everyone was anticipating. She is going strong while Trump completely fucked up the assassination attempt to gain more ground. 

 

The recent convention in Chicago was a complete disaster and will have a big impact in November. Trump is making life for Harris easier. 

 

Without question this is still the honeymoon period, but events like what you mentioned in Chicago are making that last a bit longer.

 

Tuesday we'll have the VP pick (supposedly) which may or may not spur on the momentum for a little bit longer depending on who it is.

 

And then just two weeks after that is the DNC and there probably be another bump in excitement there.

 

But THEN there’s eleven weeks of the same talking points from either side over and over, and that's when we might see the end of the honeymoon period, after, you know, five weeks.

[SuperSpreader]

This is what they have right now

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/s/CydPxMaxw2

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Is Kamala ahead in any of the models that forecast the electoral college?

Is she experiencing something akin to a "convention bump"?

 

Time will tell.

[Spork3245]

Stop. Obsessing. Over. Polling. In. July/August.

[Best]

20 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

Without question this is still the honeymoon period, but events like what you mentioned in Chicago are making that last a bit longer.

 

Tuesday we'll have the VP pick (supposedly) which may or may not spur on the momentum for a little bit longer depending on who it is.

 

And then just two weeks after that is the DNC and there probably be another bump in excitement there.

 

But THEN there’s eleven weeks of the same talking points from either side over and over, and that's when we might see the end of the honeymoon period, after, you know, five weeks.

 

Yea I agree. This momentum will most likely ride into the election which is fantastic. 

[sblfilms]

I didn’t know what would happen with a change, but I did know that ditching Biden gave the Dems the opportunity to generate actual excitement for their candidate. Biden was a sinking ship, fairly or not, and doing *something* was the only real route to a potential win.
 

The media also now has an angle that can compete with the circus of a Trump II regime, which is the first female president. The media sucks, they aren’t for the people, but they want something that will bring attention and viewership. The first female president would do that.

[finaljedi]

20 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

The media also now has an angle that can compete with the circus of a Trump II regime, which is the first female president. The media sucks, they aren’t for the people, but they want something that will bring attention and viewership. The first female president would do that.

 

I hadn't considered that angle and it seems really obvious now that you put it out there.  The media was for Trump for the hate views he generates, the Harris neutralizes that and gives the Democrats less of the shitty coverage than they were getting.

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

Yeah, I thought there would be a sudden downturn. I think this was a change many really wanted. Had there been a real primary earlier this year maybe Kamala would have run away with support too. I thought they’d need more time to get her message out. 
 

maybe it’s just been a perfect storm. Part of that perfect storm is the Republicans getting more and more unhinged. 

[Reputator]

28 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

Stop. Obsessing. Over. Polling. In. July/August.

 

Meanwhile, me after every half-point change:

 

[Littleronin]

I always thought this was the plan in 2020. Then Biden pulled the whole, "You don't understand what is it like having this power, and it is all mine." Deciding to run again in 2024. But I could have sworn the plan was Biden stabilizes the country and Kamala gets to race bait the Republicans in 2024.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

44 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

I didn’t know what would happen with a change, but I did know that ditching Biden gave the Dems the opportunity to generate actual excitement for their candidate. Biden was a sinking ship, fairly or not, and doing *something* was the only real route to a potential win.
 

The media also now has an angle that can compete with the circus of a Trump II regime, which is the first female president. The media sucks, they aren’t for the people, but they want something that will bring attention and viewership. The first female president would do that.

Wait wait wait she’s a woman too?? So she’s either a woman, or black, or Indian??? MAKE UP YOUR MIND KAMALA!!!

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Also I would not be shocked if behind the scenes Biden was telling some high profile dems that he’d step down but only on the condition that they rally behind Harris

[Best]

1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Wait wait wait she’s a woman too?? So she’s either a woman, or black, or Indian??? MAKE UP YOUR MIND KAMALA!!!

 

Well Trump said she "turned black"...

 

I guess she is like a chameleon.

[Reputator]

2 minutes ago, Best said:

 

Well Trump said she "turned black"...

 

I guess she is like a chameleon.

 

I heard she went to a Star Trek convention and claimed she was Klingon.

[AbsolutSurgen]

The "she identifies as black" vs. "she has always been Indian" argument is one of the stupidest in the history of politics.  Both sides come off as crazy nut jobs.

[finaljedi]

4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The "she identifies as black" vs. "she has always been Indian" argument is one of the stupidest in the history of politics.  Both sides come off as crazy nut jobs.

 

Did I miss something?  I thought the two sides were "She's Indian or black whenever she feels like it" and "She's biracial so she's both".

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

My biggest surprise is just with how much better Harris became as an orator when they kind of turned her loose and let her run on her own terms.

 

At the Atlanta rally, you can kind of identify a touch of Obama in her.  She’s not as adept at the soaring ‘hope and change’ register, but if you watch that rally you’ll see she’s pretty good at channeling Obama’s other, more informal register, which leaned into a lot of the rhetorical tropes of the black sermonic tradition.  If she can keep that up for a whole campaign it’s going to be a very effective contrast to Trump’s meandering attempts at dark standup comedy, and I think will play quite well in the current media environment.

 

So I’m becoming hope-curious…but I’m still not officially hopeful yet.  Give me Harris up by five or six points and I might officially change my mind.

 

Edit: I’ll also add that watching her very effectively emasculate Trump on the stump while he’s openly talking about bailing on the debate in interviews is among the sweetest flavors of schadenfreude I have heretofore tasted.

[SaysWho?]

58 minutes ago, Littleronin said:

I always thought this was the plan in 2020. Then Biden pulled the whole, "You don't understand what is it like having this power, and it is all mine." Deciding to run again in 2024. But I could have sworn the plan was Biden stabilizes the country and Kamala gets to race bait the Republicans in 2024.

 

I think you're referring to the "transitional" president thing.

 

I've read a bunch of different articles about this, so I'm actually not sure which ones are accurate, or if there's a little truth in a bunch of them, or what. My feeling from what I've read is that he was planning to serve one term, but even after Jan. 6, Trump came back as the presumptive frontrunner. Since Biden had beaten Trump before, he thought it was imperative to run for reelection and beat Trump again.

 

I don't think I've seen that spelled out, though, so that's more my interpretation of stuff I've read over the past several months. 

[Reputator]

33 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The "she identifies as black" vs. "she has always been Indian" argument is one of the stupidest in the history of politics.  Both sides come off as crazy nut jobs.

 

Yeah, Trump for acting all confused and making offensive comments, and Harris for existing.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

34 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The "she identifies as black" vs. "she has always been Indian" argument is one of the stupidest in the history of politics.  Both sides come off as crazy nut jobs.

The only “side” that truly cares exactly what she is or identifies as and when is Trump 

[Best]

2 hours ago, Massdriver said:

It would be a mistake to start believing Harris is going to win. I am still expecting a Trump victory. As good as Harris is doing, it's basically statistically tied right now and polling is not reliable enough when it's this close. Psychologically prepare for a Trump victory. 

 

While this is a safe perspective to have I'm honestly thinking Harris takes this in November. Especially if Trump keeps having performances like he had at the Chicago convention. 

[SaysWho?]

Just now, Best said:

 

While this is a safe perspective to have I'm honestly thinking Harris takes this in November. Especially if Trump keeps having performances like he had at the Chicago convention. 

 

Look at it this way: a month ago, Democrats always wondered if Biden was going to have a verbal slip that made him sound too old. Now only Trump has that problem.

[Link200]

She can win as long as she has a good debate performance against Trump. Like I have said many times already. The fly won the VP debate in 2020.