Is polling broken, or is America shifting right?

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

Not snarking in the title.  I think the election is going to tell us if we’re really seeing the type of demographic shift that polls are showing, and whether polling is a broken science or not.

 

The Pew National Public Opinion Reference Survey was just released , and this year it shows party ID nationwide has gone from D+2 to R+1, with a huge swing to the right amongst under 40s (especially 18-29 year olds), and additional rightward lurches by the Hispanic and Black populations.

 

Elliot Morris of post-Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight thinks it’s possible that there’s some weird selection bias going on in polling now due to methodological issues with getting polls to capture accurate data, but at the moment it’s just speculation.

 

So what do you all think?  In your experience, have you seen a move to the right (or maybe just a defection from the left) by a lot of people?  Or does the polling smell funky?  I’m kinda skeptical that so many people are embracing the right when the right’s gone MAGA, but I do think that there is a global backlash against liberalism which is being driven by technology and social media, plus the aftereffects of the inequality created by globalization and the Reagan era of neoliberal capitalism—and don’t think it’s out of the question that it’s filtered into American youth, particularly through the mechanism of social media algorithms.

 

I’d like to be wrong and find out on Election Day that polling is undercounting Democratic voters by 10 points though lol.

[SuperSpreader]

I think both Zoomers tend to be a lot more like Boomers and are more conservative. Mainly because they're a little sheltered and don't know how bad it can be.

 

But I also think pollsters have a vested interest on making things seem tighter than they are. So if you pick 80 ppl from a redder area and 20 from a blue area you can manipulate the results.

[finaljedi]

How many weird texts with polls in a hidden shortened link do you get that you never click and how many calls do you get a day from obviously fake numbers?  I feel like people who are younger or more tech savvy aren't caught by polling as much.

 

Especially if you support the Democrats and ever donate to Act Blue.  You get punished for your generosity with a neverending flow of texts and emails from politicians in states a thousand miles away.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Of course there has been a rightward shift, especially among working class Latin and black populations who have seen their relative economic positions eroded due to the inflationary environment.

[TUFKAK]

I think with certain demographics, cis straight white etc, there is a shift to the right whereas women are shifting further to the left.  

[Massdriver]

Polls are having issues, but America is shifting to the right. You also see this in Europe some. 

[Fizzzzle]

How many times in the last 10 years have you answered the phone when you don't know the number that's calling you? I don't know about you, but I could probably count it on two hands. That's true for every single person I know.

 

... and we still think asking random people to answer polls is somehow representative of the general public.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

4 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

Polls are having issues, but America is shifting to the right. You also see this in Europe some. 

 

If anything, it's more pronounced in Europe than the United States.

 

And it's not merely a "First World Situation" either - this shift is evident in the developing world where even ostensibly "leftist" governments have adopted social policies that would impress even the most conservative Republican.

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

1 hour ago, Fizzzzle said:

How many times in the last 10 years have you answered the phone when you don't know the number that's calling you? I don't know about you, but I could probably count it on two hands. That's true for every single person I know.

 

... and we still think asking random people to answer polls is somehow representative of the general public.

 

Pollsters recognize this issue and have some other methods, but the ones I've seen mentioned don't seem like they'd be much better in terms of accuracy.

 

And then there are weird results we've gotten recently, with cases like Marilyn Lands, the Democrat in Alabama getting elected by a huge margin despite being in a district that was like R+20.

[Mr.Vic20]

This doesn't surprise me. Constant communicating has kept people in a state of constant anxiety and worry for well over a decade now. When people are chronically anxious or afraid they tend to regress and do so along very specific cultural and economic fault lines. #politicalpucker

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

19 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

If anything, it's more pronounced in Europe than the United States.

 

And it's not merely a "First World Situation" either - this shift is evident in the developing world where even ostensibly "leftist" governments have adopted social policies that would impress even the most conservative Republican.

 

Economically left-wing/culturally right-wing seems to be the increasingly common pattern.  People essentially rejecting the cultural left, but also rejecting neoliberal economic policies.

 

If it's well and truly becoming entrenched in the US I think the Dems could effectively fight back by running more Sanders-ish types (minus the baggage of the 'socialist' label):  old-fashioned social democrats who aren't MAGA, but also aren't 'woke'.

[Spork3245]

27 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said:

I think both Zoomers tend to be a lot more like Boomers and are more conservative. Mainly because they're a little sheltered and don't know how bad it can be.

 

But I also think pollsters have a vested interest on making things seem tighter than they are. So if you pick 80 ppl from a redder area and 20 from a blue area you can manipulate the results.

Counterpoint: Gen Z who actually answer their phones for pollsters are super lonely weirdos.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Alienation, decades of deliberate destruction of public education, and right wing capturing of social media algorithms all contribute to making people more accepting to right wing beliefs. Add in economic hardship due to decades of under producing housing (thus driving rental and home purchasing costs precipitously upward) and general inflation, then add or subtract racial animus to varying degrees and yeah I can see a rightward shift in people younger than me, especially in men. 
 

But it is hard to measure this for younger folks due to non response bias and while there is some things you can do statistically to make up for this you still need to make a lot of assumptions about the cohort 

 

finally, this:

31 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said:

I think both Zoomers tend to be a lot more like Boomers and are more conservative. Mainly because they're a little sheltered and don't know how bad it can be.

 

I went to a concert with my wife a couple of weeks ago and some zoomers were complaining that “people” were too close to them. No one was touching them, but it was a sold out show. But They were at the center of the stage, about 20 feet back, no seating, all GA. Like no shit you don’t have a ton of personal space you are near some of the best places to stand! Very boomer behavior 

[finaljedi]

43 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

How many times in the last 10 years have you answered the phone when you don't know the number that's calling you? I don't know about you, but I could probably count it on two hands. That's true for every single person I know.

 

... and we still think asking random people to answer polls is somehow representative of the general public.

 

When I'm applying for jobs I answer to weird numbers, that's it, other than that if you're not on my contacts list I'm not picking up.

 

As far as text messages, there are the scams and there are the political spam, I've gotten texts about polls, but I trust that link about as much as the "post office" that can't deliver my package.

[CitizenVectron]

29 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

 

Economically left-wing/culturally right-wing seems to be the increasingly common pattern.  People essentially rejecting the cultural left, but also rejecting neoliberal economic policies.

 

If it's well and truly becoming entrenched in the US I think the Dems could effectively fight back by running more Sanders-ish types (minus the baggage of the 'socialist' label):  old-fashioned social democrats who aren't MAGA, but also aren't 'woke'.

 

Optimistically, the smartest path for Democrats (speculating) is like you say, to campaign on populist economic issues, and to basically ignore equality and social issues. Then, when you win, you can still enable those things, but you just do it more quietly. Unfortunately, Gen Z does appear to be shifting right (and when I say that, I mean Gen Z men) in terms of misogyny, homophobia, transphobia, etc. 

 

Unfortunately, leftist Gen Z (which are still the majority of that age range, just not as dominant as before) are like young people always have been, which is to say they want purity in their party's positions. So they want the campaigns on social equality, etc, even if it means losing. Leftist parties need to really hammer home on anti-rich messages and helping the middle/lower classes (expanding child tax credits, free healthcare, etc) and ignore social issues (but still be strong on them once in power).

[SuperSpreader]

25 minutes ago, finaljedi said:

much as the "post office" that can't deliver my package.

 

They just need some info from you bro

 

help U.SP.S. out

[AbsolutSurgen]

In Canada, there has been a large shift to the "right-of-centre" parties according to polls.

Younger Canadians and men are the groups that, according to polling,  are a group that have changed their allegiance the most.

Men of all ages overwhelmingly support our conservative parties, but surprisingly, Millenial/GenX women do as well.  (Boomer/Silent Gen women support the Liberals in general, Gen Z women the NDP).

 

I suspect it's more of a reaction to the present economic environment and a rejection of the ruling Liberals, rather than a long-term ideology shift.  [To be fair, all of the parties have moved further to the left over time, so it could be that the party ideologies have moved faster than those of the general population.]

Of course, the right-of-centre mainstream parties are not like the Republicans in most of Canada (with the Prairies being a notable exception).

[CitizenVectron]

4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

In Canada, there has been a large shift to the "right-of-centre" parties according to polls.

Younger Canadians and men are the groups that, according to polling,  are a group that have changed their allegiance the most.

Men of all ages overwhelmingly support our conservative parties, but surprisingly, Millenial/GenX women do as well.  (Boomer/Silent Gen women support the Liberals in general, Gen Z women the NDP).

 

I suspect it's more of a reaction to the present economic environment and a rejection of the ruling Liberals, rather than a long-term ideology shift.  [To be fair, all of the parties have moved further to the left over time, so it could be that the party ideologies have moved faster than those of the general population.]

Of course, the right-of-centre mainstream parties are not like the Republicans in most of Canada (with the Prairies being a notable exception).

 

Yeah, I think the current polling, which is roughly below, is wanting to vote out the current Liberal government more than anything (Canada generally votes against parties more than for them):

• Conservative (conservative) - 41%
• Liberal (centrist) - 26%
• NDP (left) - 18%

I suspect around 50-60% of the country would still vote Liberal/NDP in future elections. I would guess the Conservatives win a majority next year, and then likely another majority/minority after that. Then when the housing crisis has still only gotten worse (since it's driven by provincial/city policies, not federal), the pendulum will swing back.

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

58 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

Counterpoint: Gen Z who actually answer their phones for pollsters are super lonely weirdos.

facts. I too am a lonely weirdo, but I’m fine with that and I don’t answer the phone if I don’t recognize the caller. Nor will I click on links texted to me by random numbers. 

[SuperSpreader]

Just now, Spawn_of_Apathy said:

Nor will I click on links texted to me by random numbers. 

 

 

C'mon man please click me

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

I answer most phone calls I get

[PaladinSolo]

Harry Enten CNNs polls guy. 

 

"Kamala Harris is doing SIGNIFICANTLY better than Joe Biden is among Black and Hispanic voters. Why is that important? It means that while Biden had really one path to win the electoral college, Harris has multiple. Specifically, she can win in the Sun Belt (AZ, GA, NC, & NV)."

 

 

Candidates do matter, but we'll see how things shake out going forward. 

[TheBladeRoden]

One problem is when a Democrat gets too economic populist then the billionaire donors that they also need and the billionaire-owned media go *hiss!* and start putting out hit pieces.

[SuperSpreader]

3 minutes ago, TheBladeRoden said:

One problem is when a Democrat gets too economic populist then the billionaire donors that they also need and the billionaire-owned media go *hiss!* and start putting out hit pieces.

Shortening the campaign season is one way to reduce their influence.

[unogueen]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

In Canada, there has been a large shift to the "right-of-centre" parties according to polls.

Younger Canadians and men are the groups that, according to polling,  are a group that have changed their allegiance the most.

Men of all ages overwhelmingly support our conservative parties, but surprisingly, Millenial/GenX women do as well.  (Boomer/Silent Gen women support the Liberals in general, Gen Z women the NDP).

 

I suspect it's more of a reaction to the present economic environment and a rejection of the ruling Liberals, rather than a long-term ideology shift.  [To be fair, all of the parties have moved further to the left over time, so it could be that the party ideologies have moved faster than those of the general population.]

Of course, the right-of-centre mainstream parties are not like the Republicans in most of Canada (with the Prairies being a notable exception).

This is just part of the regular boom-bust cycle of my memories' Canadian politics. Tired of getting robbed by one party, so people switch just for kicks.

[GoldenTongue]

Anecdotally, I've been shocked by the a number of shifts rightward in NYC.  Several local districts in the NYC area, and in what I still struggle to believe, multiple major construction unions have publicly endorsed Trump.

 

I'm refusing to feel much encouragement from the enthusiasm I'm seeing from some over Harris' early fundraising successes and such - at this point I still firmly believe that we will see Trump elected come November.  I maintain a distant hope that I end up surprised.

[CitizenVectron]

1 minute ago, GoldenTongue said:

Anecdotally, I've been shocked by the a number of shifts rightward in NYC.  Several local districts in the NYC area, and in what I still struggle to believe, multiple major construction unions have publicly endorsed Trump.

 

I'm refusing to feel much encouragement from the enthusiasm I'm seeing from some over Harris' early fundraising successes and such - at this point I still firmly believe that we will see Trump elected come November.  I maintain a distant hope that I end up surprised.

 

Centre and centre-left parties in the US/Canada have utterly failed to protect the middle/lower class over the last 30+ years (in terms of housing, education prices, etc), so they are looking at the other side to fix those things (and of course are getting big promises that will never be fulfilled). But it shouldn't surprise anyone that if Democrats (and Liberals in Canada) say they are for working people but then do nothing to address the biggest concerns that those voters would look elsewhere.

[S3xB0t]

14 minutes ago, unogueen said:

This is just part of the regular boom-bust cycle of my memories' Canadian politics. Tired of getting robbed by one party, so people switch just for kicks.

Isn’t that just humanity in general? If they’re not locked down by a dictator the public’s memory tends to be short and likes to switch to whoever gets good or promises to.

 

1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I answer most phone calls I get

A couple years ago I spent a lot of time removing my information from public info websites and databases. Combined with Google Fi’s spam filter it cut down significantly on the spam calls/texts for about 3 years. Now the political stuff is creeping back in.

 

I do like the calls asking me if I’m interested in selling my house. For some reason they are never willing to entertain my $5 million asking price.

[unogueen]

2 minutes ago, S3xB0t said:

Isn’t that just humanity in general? If they’re not locked down by a dictator the public’s memory tends to be short and likes to switch to whoever gets good or promises to.

Yeah it's fucking annoying.

[AbsolutSurgen]

31 minutes ago, unogueen said:

This is just part of the regular boom-bust cycle of my memories' Canadian politics. Tired of getting robbed by one party, so people switch just for kicks.

Partially.  The last time Liberal support collapsed (in 2011) they hadn't been in government for 5 years -- and that was probably a vote against Ignatieff more than anything.

Normally you see people tending to vote more right-wing as they get older.

Look at the support among for the Conservatives among Gen-X/Millennial women.  They have arguably been the ones hurt the most by the affordability crisis in Canada.  While, older women who are less impacted by it (or have strongly benefitted from higher housing prices) don't support them. 

One could argue it is less the electorate being concerned about being robbed, and more a statement on the government's economic policies that have resulted in negative productivity grown combined with housing unaffordability (which is orders of magnitude worse than the US).

[unogueen]

Because Toronto is currently in the find out phase of infra scams line the condo apocalypse. Who'd have thunk?

[MarSolo]

For some reason young men gravitate towards clowns like Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, and ANDREW TATE.

 

We need to get young men laid so they don’t see those dorks as “alpha males”.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

5 minutes ago, MarSolo said:

For some reason young men gravitate towards clowns like Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, and ANDREW TATE.

 

We need to get young men laid so they don’t see those dorks as “alpha males”.

 

The reasons they do so have been pretty well-identified in this thread and they have nothing to do with sexual activity.

[TwinIon]

Quote

Is polling broken, or is America shifting right?

 

Yes.

[Reputator]

Goes to show how effective boogeyman politics is.