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Rock the Vote '24: update (10/24) - Harris to appear on on Shannon Sharpe's "Club Shay Shay" podcast next Monday

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Xbob42

Xbob42

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3 minutes ago, CastletonSnob said:
GettyImages-2171274143-2048x1313-1.jpg

Survey reveals potential tapering of Kansas gap between GOP, Democratic presidential candidates • Kansas Reflector

KANSASREFLECTOR.COM
The Docking Institute survey of Kansas shows Donald Trump is favored over Kamala Harris, but Trump's advantage in 2016 and 2020 may dwindle in 2024.

 

Donald Trump potentially losing significant ground (8 points) compared to 2016 and 2020 in a safe red state... but it's a toss up!

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1 minute ago, Xbob42 said:

Nah. I well and truly believe it's not. Nothing about the toss up narrative aligns with reality in any meaningful way. 

 

Well yea I know you made good points with the polls yesterday. But I'm being spoon fed it's a toss up. So I honestly don't know what to think. 

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Xbob42

Xbob42

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Just now, Best said:

Well yea I know you made good points with the polls yesterday. But I'm being spoon fed it's a toss up. So I honestly don't know what to think. 

Better to think it's a toss up rather than it being in the bag, 100%. Always the smarter move to keep people from getting complacent. But I think it becomes even more obvious that the truth is a little different, especially with pollsters clearly hedging to minimize reputation damage; like how they're now saying the most likely outcome is a narrow landslide for either side. Weird how it's a toss up but also now they're certain there could be a small landslide one way or the other. :hmm:

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this shit stinks. 

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Jason

Jason

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6 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

Always the smarter move to keep people from getting complacent. But I think it becomes even more obvious that the truth is a little different, especially with pollsters clearly hedging to minimize reputation damage; like how they're now saying the most likely outcome is a narrow landslide for either side.

 

If were out canvassing for the presidential race I'd 100% be telling people it's a tight race no matter what's actually happening. We're doing this in my local city council race too, playing up the (factual) big money advantage the other side has even though we all think getting the two open seats is guaranteed and that's all we need to get a majority.

 

Two gets us to a 4-3 majority, although there's a few things we'd like to do that require a fifth vote. The consensus is winning three seats is the likeliest outcome but the other two are incumbents. 

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ShreddieMercury

ShreddieMercury

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Despite my entire politically aware life being defined by despising conservatives and everything that they stand for, somehow the MSG rally is the most vile and disturbing thing that I've witnessed from the right.  I've always known who these people are, what views they hold, and what they want, but to see it spewed this brazenly and openly has been genuinely difficult for me to process today.  It's quite simply not the same world that I recognize; even as a complete cynic, when I step outside I see people caring for each other, I see kindness and compassion, and I see in my daughter a reverence and wonder for the natural world that's inspiring.  The history of humanity is an endless cycle of self-inflicted tragedy, but there is so much good if you look.  To witness an entire movement that craves nothing other than the complete destruction of these values, and then to witness said movement's growing popularity amongst our ignorant and mentally feeble populace is infuriating and disturbing.  Fuck all of these people, now and forever. 

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Greatoneshere

Greatoneshere

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I'll just leave this here, as the election tampering process ramps up. It's not like the Supreme Court has ever decided an election before in favor the the Republican candidate in recent history, nope, can't think of one time. 

 

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A new Supreme Court case could change the result of the presidential election

WWW.VOX.COM
Republicans ask the Supreme Court to disenfranchise thousands of Pennsylvania voters.

 

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Signifyin(g)Monkey

Signifyin(g)Monkey

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34 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

Nah. I well and truly believe it's not. Nothing about the toss up narrative aligns with reality in any meaningful way. 

IMO there are too many conflicting indicators.  Both campaigns have things they can point to that might qualify as 'encouraging signs'.  One can only hope their 'encouraging signs' are the ones that augur the actual outcome, and white-knuckle the chaos of uncertainty for another 8 days...or more.   

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Xbob42

Xbob42

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9 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

IMO there are too many conflicting indicators.  Both campaigns have things they can point to that might qualify as 'encouraging signs'.  One can only hope their 'encouraging signs' are the ones that augur the actual outcome, and white-knuckle the chaos of uncertainty for another 8 days...or more.   

I'd like to think hosting a Nazi rally in New York isn't going to give Trump much of a boost over his 2020 numbers, but I'm an optimist. 

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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The rally going viral is happening at the absolute worst time for Trump. You can't get worse timing than a week before the election. A day before, and you've already got half the vote in, and people might not near. A month before, and you have time to bounce back or get other news out there. But a week before, it's just enough time for late-breaking voters who cast on election day to think "wow, that's bad, I'm not voting for X."

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CastletonSnob

CastletonSnob

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R Poll has Trump TIED in Pennsylvania.

 

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Pennsylvania Headed for a Photo Finish, New American Greatness Polling › American Greatness

AMGREATNESS.COM
The latest American Greatness poll shows Donald Trump tied Kamala Harris in battleground Pennsylvania, with both candidates at 47%, in a survey of likely voters conducted by North Star Opinion…

 

 

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CastlevaniaNut18

CastlevaniaNut18

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Just now, Best said:

I don't know. I've seen a ton of feedback from the right who absolutely loved the Madison Square rally yesterday. I honestly don't think it hurts Trump in anyway. 

Those people were already lost. You’re not convincing Trump supporters to abandon ship. They’re with him because they love what he represents. 
 

 

The people this will affect are people sitting on the fence, the people apathetic to voting. 
 

That rally didn’t gain any new support for him. 

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Xbob42

Xbob42

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6 minutes ago, Best said:

I don't know. I've seen a ton of feedback from the right who absolutely loved the Madison Square rally yesterday. I honestly don't think it hurts Trump in anyway. 

Nobody is talking about the existing Trump base, who gives a shit about that? They've been established and have not grown. And that's Trump's problem: he has no way to expand his base. Or rather, nothing he's done has been a way to expand his base, but he's done a helluva lot to grow the opposition's base. Cleetus McSisterfuck might get a real good hoot n' holler at calling Puerto Rico a floating dumpster island, but he'll be writing Trump's name on ballots long after Trump's death no matter what, Cleetus is a known quantity. 

 

For the significant amount of Puerto Ricans in almost every swing state, however...

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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5 minutes ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:

Those people were already lost. You’re not convincing Trump supporters to abandon ship. They’re with him because they love what he represents. 
 

 

The people this will affect are people sitting on the fence, the people apathetic to voting. 
 

That rally didn’t gain any new support for him. 

 

Yeah, the key to if this impacts him will be easier to determine after the election, especially as people research precinct-level data of swing states and areas with a high Puerto Rican population. 

 

But the main point is that any impacts will be seen toward undecided voters, non-MAGA Republicans who want a reason to vote for Harris and against Trump, and people who are less likely to come out to vote, not from people within his base.

 

The Comey letter in 2016 did not impact Hillary with her base, but it did with late deciders. Will this have an impact? Or John Kelly's statement of Trump being a fascist (which Trump's MSG rally reinforced)? We'll see. I certainly hope it does, and I hope Harris/Walz don't fall into any traps and keep doing what they're doing.

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5timechamp

5timechamp

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4 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

Your last birthday before being conscripted into the Space Force to program self-piloting starfighters!

 

Its happening either way.. its just that with Kamala you become:

 

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and with the 4th Reich..(figures the mission would be comb overs)

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Jason

Jason

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28 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Voted this morning! 25 minute line, which in kind of crazy for where I live. 

 

In and out for me but it was 7 on a Saturday evening in Los Angeles. Most people vote by mail or drop off their mail ballots. I was able to report my original mail ballot stolen to get it invalidated and a new mail ballot issued but decided to go vote in person since they invalidate your mail ballot when you do that and just wanted to make absolutely sure there couldn't be any issues with the thieves trying to turn in my stolen mail ballot. 

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atom631

atom631

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36 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Voted this morning! 25 minute line, which in kind of crazy for where I live. 

 

I went by early voting spot around 3pm. The entire lot was full and cars were parked a good 1/4-1/2 mile down the road in either direction. Must've been 100 people online outside before even getting into the building. 

 

Not sure what this all means, but I've never seen anything like that before around here (which I'm on LI - I live in die-hard MAGA country). 

 

Anecdotally, I'm seeing a significant increase in Harriz/Walz (and locally, Avlon/Anker) signs in this election cycle than I recall seeing in 2020 and even 2016. I drove up this one road the other day and there was easily 20 Harris/Walz signs to maybe 2-3 Trump signs. It was like a little liberal stronghold. 

 

I was telling this to my mom, who is a huge maga cultist that lives down in The Villages, FL. She also said she even noticed a massive uptick in dem presence in her otherwise safespace echo chamber she moved to, specifically for that reason. 

 

Certainly, gives me hope...but the anxiety is starting to kick in. 

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