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Rock the Vote '24: update (10/14) - Harris to be interviewed by Fox News on Wednesday

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Spork3245

Spork3245

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Those people don’t have actual power.


County and state election officials can potentially stop/delay the certification of votes to allow for the claim of “fraud” to grow. Physical power of the military won’t matter during a challenge at the state and federal level like that. If it were just idiots violently rioting again, sure.

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PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

Posted
Posted

General election poll 

 

🔵 Harris 48% (+3)

🔴 Trump 45%

 

Ipsos #B - 3307 LV - 10/21

 

General election poll 

 

🔵 Harris 50% (+4)

🔴 Trump 46%

 

Morning Consult #C - 8570 LV - 10/20

 

General election Tracking poll 

 

🔵 Harris 48%

🔴 Trump 48%

 

Tipp #A+ - 1268 LV - 10/21

 

General election poll - New York 

 

🔵 Harris 58% (+19)

🔴 Trump 39%

 

Congress - 04

🔵 Gillen 53% (+12)

🔴 D'Esposito (Inc) 41%

 

Siena #A - 872 LV - 10/17

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Signifyin(g)Monkey

Signifyin(g)Monkey

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, mclumber1 said:

I voted today.  Well, I voted a few days ago, but I turned my ballot in today.  The mall here in Henderson (suburb of Las Vegas) had a voting station, and there were several hundred people in line to vote in-person and maybe even register to vote.  Luckily, I didn't have to wait in line, I just dropped my ballot in the box and was on my way.  

Mind if I ask if you're a crossover-ish voter?  Or a true independent? (not 'independent but only vote for one party' independent)  Typically vote Republican or for other parties (like the libertarian party, etc.) but couldn't stomach a vote for Trump?  You never struck me as a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat partisan.  More of a classical liberal guy who could be persuaded in a number of directions depending on the candidate.

 

Or if you don't want to say, can you give us a sense of which way Nevada is leaning?

 

Asking because I'm trying not to doom too hard about the early voting numbers we're seeing coming out of Nevada right now. (particularly Clark county) If they represent what the national voting trends are, and there isn't a decent helping of voters who are registered Republican but voting Democrat, or non-affiliated voters breaking for Harris...:s  

 

We won't know until the votes are counted on election day, of course, and Nevada might not be representative of what happens in the other swing states, or Democrats might have a stronger turnout on the actual day of the election versus early voting than usual, but ugh this is going to be a long two weeks...

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Xbob42

Xbob42

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Mind if I ask if you're a crossover-ish voter?  Or a true independent? (not 'independent but only vote for one party' independent)  Typically vote Republican or for other parties (like the libertarian party, etc.) but couldn't stomach a vote for Trump?  You never struck me as a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat partisan.  More of a classical liberal guy who could be persuaded in a number of directions depending on the candidate.

 

Asking because I'm trying not to doom too hard about the early voting numbers we're seeing coming out of Nevada right now. (particularly Clark county) If they represent what the national voting trends are, and there isn't a decent helping of voters who are registered Republican but voting Democrat, or non-affiliated voters breaking for Harris...:s  

 

We won't know until the votes are counted on election day, of course, but ugh this is going to be a long two weeks...

As much fun as it is to stress about early voting, literally all I can find on early voting is that, despite it being actual data, it's absolute junk for predicting anything at all and is basically reading tea leaves. Apparently polling, despite its obvious high-profile misses, is generally much better for this, although with a huge wave of junk polls coming out, who knows. Everything must be obfuscated! Certainty is not allowed!

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Chairslinger

Chairslinger

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Posted
53 minutes ago, S3xB0t said:

Good news! I visited the city clerk this morning to find out that my son’s faint scrawl will not affect my ballot. Time to finish it up and get it turned in!

 

 

Famous last words before you somehow get sucked into a 5 year saga of Trump, Giuliani, and all the rightwing ghouls blaming you and your smudge for single handedly stealing the election from him :rose:

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mclumber1

mclumber1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Mind if I ask if you're a crossover-ish voter?  Or a true independent? (not 'independent but only vote for one party' independent)  Typically vote Republican or for other parties (like the libertarian party, etc.) but couldn't stomach a vote for Trump?  You never struck me as a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat partisan.  More of a classical liberal guy who could be persuaded in a number of directions depending on the candidate.

 

Or if you don't want to say, can you give us a sense of which way Nevada is leaning?

 

Asking because I'm trying not to doom too hard about the early voting numbers we're seeing coming out of Nevada right now. (particularly Clark county) If they represent what the national voting trends are, and there isn't a decent helping of voters who are registered Republican but voting Democrat, or non-affiliated voters breaking for Harris...:s  

 

We won't know until the votes are counted on election day, of course, and Nevada might not be representative of what happens in the other swing states, or Democrats might have a stronger turnout on the actual day of the election versus early voting than usual, but ugh this is going to be a long two weeks...

 

I've never been a member of a political party, but I most closely align with small (L) libertarianism. I voted for Biden in 2020, and I voted for Harris in 2024.  My vote for Harris is not so much in support of her policies, but as a rebuke of Trump's.  If Harris wins, and I hope she does, I'll likely oppose many of the things she attempts to enact or advocate for.  Further, I hope that if Trump loses, the Republican party finally sheds him and his style of politics and policy.  

 

As far as the way Nevada is leaning?  I don't know.  The crowd at the mall waiting to vote seemed to be quite diverse.  It's really difficult to determine the outcome of the election in this state based on my very small sample size.  I was just happy to see so many people taking the election seriously. 

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Reputator

Reputator

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Xbob42 said:

As much fun as it is to stress about early voting, literally all I can find on early voting is that, despite it being actual data, it's absolute junk for predicting anything at all and is basically reading tea leaves. Apparently polling, despite its obvious high-profile misses, is generally much better for this, although with a huge wave of junk polls coming out, who knows. Everything must be obfuscated! Certainty is not allowed!

 

What I will say is that if even 10% of Republicans break for Harris, then the EV numbers are looking really good for her.

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Xbob42

Xbob42

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

What I will say is that if even 10% of Republicans break for Harris, then the EV numbers are looking really good for her.

I really hope at least some do. If our candidate was talking the kind of crazy shit Trump is, about enemies within and using the military to "deal with" political opponents, and the Republican candidate was a relatively normal "whatever" politician, I'd be voting for that candidate 100 times out of 100. As much as I understand wanting to destroy the status quo and the apparent dislike our government has for its people, we already fucked around and found out with Trump, and it didn't magically fix anything. If we want truly substantial (POSITIVE) change, we will need to do a lot more than just vote for a single person.

I've never been happy with any presidential administration, at most I've thought "well, they did some ok things on top of the terrible shit" -- but it's important to remember that things can always get worse, and there is no bottom to the barrel.

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Reputator

Reputator

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

I really hope at least some do. If our candidate was talking the kind of crazy shit Trump is, about enemies within and using the military to "deal with" political opponents, and the Republican candidate was a relatively normal "whatever" politician, I'd be voting for that candidate 100 times out of 100. As much as I understand wanting to destroy the status quo and the apparent dislike our government has for its people, we already fucked around and found out with Trump, and it didn't magically fix anything. If we want truly substantial (POSITIVE) change, we will need to do a lot more than just vote for a single person.

I've never been happy with any presidential administration, at most I've thought "well, they did some ok things on top of the terrible shit" -- but it's important to remember that things can always get worse, and there is no bottom to the barrel.

 

I like to think that if the reverse were true as in your hypothetical, the Democratic party would be pretty cognizant of it. I mean we pressured Biden out of the race and he's actually a good president, just a few years too close to the grave.

 

And look, if Nikki Hailey were the nominee instead of Trump, she'd probably win it in a landslide just because of Biden's massively low approval rating which Harris is saddled with. Her more moderate stance on abortion would definitely help as well. And at least if she won, I wouldn't be terrified about the country ending. She'd have bad policies but they wouldn't be world-ending policies* -- she'd at least keep the engine running.

 

*well... on the climate issue, that's debatable

 

But a 2028 race with Harris vs Hailey? That would be an interesting race. Assuming with 100% certainty that Harris' four years will be marked with disasters and world crises she'll be unfairly dinged for, going up against a more "normal" Republican candidate who has some centrist views will be a much harder challenge. You can't run on this being the most important election of our lifetimes....every time, and especially when it isn't Trump running anymore.

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Reputator said:

And look, if Nikki Hailey were the nominee instead of Trump, she'd probably win it in a landslide just because of Biden's massively low approval rating which Harris is saddled with. Her more moderate stance on abortion would definitely help as well. And at least if she won, I wouldn't be terrified about the country ending. She'd have bad policies but they wouldn't be world-ending policies* -- she'd at least keep the engine running.

 

As I've said before, if the GOP candidate was anyone other than DJT, then this election would've been over ages ago rather than what is effectively a coin flip.

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Xbob42

Xbob42

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

As I've said before, if the GOP candidate was anyone other than DJT, then this election would've been over ages ago rather than what is effectively a coin flip.

Them going with Trump again is mind-boggling to me. We would've had our asses thoroughly handed to us and would've damn well known it by now.

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Kal-El814

Kal-El814

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Posted

I feel like "anyone other than Trump would clear" to be a weird vibe. None of the "normal" Republican candidates (grading on a curve of course) came close to unseating the god emperor and the notion that Trump would support another Republican candidate and not actively try to sabotage their campaign is bananas. We're not that far removed from credible takes on the 2024 ascendence of Ron DeSantis which is insane to contemplate now.

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Reputator

Reputator

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kal-El814 said:

I feel like "anyone other than Trump would clear" to be a weird vibe. None of the "normal" Republican candidates (grading on a curve of course) came close to unseating the god emperor and the notion that Trump would support another Republican candidate and not actively try to sabotage their campaign is bananas. We're not that far removed from credible takes on the 2024 ascendence of Ron DeSantis which is insane to contemplate now.

 

Well Hailey got the closest, which admittedly isn't saying much given the margins, but she held on a lot longer than anyone else. DeSantis/Pence/Ramaswamy don't have any general electorate appeal, personality wise.

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

I feel like "anyone other than Trump would clear" to be a weird vibe. None of the "normal" Republican candidates (grading on a curve of course) came close to unseating the god emperor and the notion that Trump would support another Republican candidate and not actively try to sabotage their campaign is bananas. We're not that far removed from credible takes on the 2024 ascendence of Ron DeSantis which is insane to contemplate now.

 

It's not a weird notion in the least to consider it in a theoretical vacuum where Trump doesn't have a stranglehold on the party.

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sblfilms

sblfilms

Posted
Posted

Hopefully this is the last time I’ll have to vote against Trump (and Cruz). Voted for one of my buddies for drainage commission because he’s a top shelf civil engineer who has rightly predicted pretty much all of the flooding issues cause by improper development planning in our district. I voted against the local ISD bond prop as I refuse to support the reckless spending of this administration that spent $70 million dollars on football stadiums in the last 10 years.


There were about 15 judges up for election from county all the way up to state levels. I’m glad I brought my list as I would not have been able to remember each one.

IMG-1530.jpg

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Kal-El814

Kal-El814

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

It's not a weird notion in the least to consider it in a theoretical vacuum where Trump doesn't have a stranglehold on the party.

 

Yeah but that doesn't happen with Trump merely not being the candidate, he has to not exist.

 

To be clear I'm also not claiming that Biden would have cruised to victory against Republican Candidate X, just that even as a Presidential candidate Trump is also hamstringing the GOP on issues like abortion, immigration reform, etc.

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sblfilms

sblfilms

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

It's not a weird notion in the least to consider it in a theoretical vacuum where Trump doesn't have a stranglehold on the party.


I also don’t think Biden gets coup’d by the party if the GOP candidate is Haley, even if it were just as obvious he was going to lose. Trump fundamentally changes the contest in myriad ways.

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Reputator

Reputator

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sblfilms said:


I also don’t think Biden gets coup’d by the party if the GOP candidate is is Haley, even if it were just as obvious he was going to

lose. Trump fundamentally changes the contest in myriad ways.

 

Yeah bringing in Harris after Hailey gets the nomination wouldn't have looked like an 8D chess move anymore. It's hard to be the fresh-faced, glass-ceiling wrecking ball candidate of change if the GOP got there first.

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Kal-El814

Kal-El814

Posted
Posted
Just now, sblfilms said:

I also don’t think Biden gets coup’d by the party if the GOP candidate is is Haley, even if it were just as obvious he was going to

lose. Trump fundamentally changes the contest in myriad ways.

 

Yeah I agree with this as well.

 

Any election where polling has candidates tied within the MOE makes after the fact results so easy to overanalyze. Clinton lost to Trump on a razor's edge, something like the weather being different in key states could have swung things in her favor and everyone's take on her and Trump's campaigns would be radically different. 

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5timechamp

5timechamp

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

Well Hailey got the closest, which admittedly isn't saying much given the margins, but she held on a lot longer than anyone else. DeSantis/Pence/Ramaswamy don't have any general electorate appeal, personality wise.

 

We shall see if the GOP is dumb enough to try the Trump clones route again or if there is a legitimate purging of MAGA.. admittedly they will still exist but they will realize they have to keep the smarmy below the surface

 

 

32 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

As I've said before, if the GOP candidate was anyone other than DJT, then this election would've been over ages ago rather than what is effectively a coin flip.

 

Should Harris win this will be the one thing I wont stop pointing to..

 

 

Honestly the larger concern/point of interest is as to where the Dems go post Harris (hopefully a years down the line problem)…there are a ton of folks waiting in the wings.. id hate to have their ambition force them to cannibalize each other and inadvertently open up another populist window

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Fizzzzle

Fizzzzle

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Posted

It's kind of a wild take to say the Republicans would have won if they had anyone other than Trump because we literally have no idea what the party would be without him at this point. It's been basically 9 years of Trump as the Republican god-emperor, what the hell would the Republican party even be without him? It's like saying the Bulls would have been better without Michael Jordan in the 90's, it's hard to even fathom what that would even mean. Michael Jordan WAS the Chicago Bulls in the 90's.

 

Trump winning in 2016 caused both parties to shift to the right (Democrats learning the wrong lesson as per usual) to the point that currently the Democrats' border policy makes Reagan look like a commie libcuck, it's kind of hard to imagine what would have happened if Hillary won. Donald Trump would have faded away, for sure.

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Reputator

Reputator

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, 5timechamp said:

Honestly the larger concern/point of interest is as to where the Dems go post Harris (hopefully a years down the line problem)…there are a ton of folks waiting in the wings.. id hate to have their ambition force them to cannibalize each other and inadvertently open up another populist window

 

It's really up in the air for me if Harris can win a second term.

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