Jump to content

Rock the Vote '24: update (10/14) - Harris to be interviewed by Fox News on Wednesday

CitizenVectron
 Share

Recommended Posts

PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The same NYT/Siena poll released today indicates that Harris is +4 in PA and -5 in AZ (AZ is completely gone for Harris at this point).

 

The PA data implies that Harris is doing extemely well in the white suburbs.

Saying AZ is gone is a bit of a stretch, its no more out of Harris' reach than PA is out of Trump's.

  • True 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

An NYT/Siena poll released today confirms the challenges the Harris campaign faces in consolidating its Black voting base in an election that will be decided on the margins.  It's better than where it was when Biden was running, but it's still far short of 2020 and 2016.

 

2024-10-08-polls-black-voters-index-face

Black Voters Drift From Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid, Poll Shows - The New York Times

WWW.NYTIMES.COM
Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to win a majority of Black voters, and has brought many back to her party since taking over for President Biden. Still, a significant gap in support persists.

 

Gender:
Men
70% Harris
20% Trump
Women
83% Harris
12% Trump

 

Age:
Under 45
77% Harris
14% Trump
45+
79% Harris
15% Trump

 

Education:
College
79% Harris
14% Trump
No college
78% Harris
15% Trump

 

Of this data, the one that gets the most "shock" from me is the 12% support for Trump from Black women.

I think we're looking at yet another year with an overestimation of the GOP's black vote, polls have overestimated Trump's black support in 16 and 20, and its probably just a hard group to poll.  Cohn has already put a caveat on this poll by saying it relies on Trump turning out low turn out members.

  • stepee 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fizzzzle

Fizzzzle

Posted
Posted

Like I've said, if you assume the general MOE as roughly 3% (though I've seen one expert say it's closer to 6), polls are functionally useless in swing states. Neither candidate is going to win by more than 3%.

 

There is no path to victory for Trump if he doesn't win both Georgia AND Pennsylvania. Arizona won't do it for him.  That's why his spending is thus:

Expected campaign spending between Labor day and Election day:

Pennsylvania - $70.6m

Georgia - $38.7m

Arizona - $9.9m

Michigan - $6.6m

Wisconsin - $3.5m

North Carolina - $2.8m

Nevada - $1.4m

 

You can see Trump's campaign is spending more on PA than every other state combined, with GA being a distant second while still being leagues above any other state. Trump HAS to win both of those states. Kamala only has to win one to drastically alter the election in her favor. The odds of Trump winning without Georgia or Pennsylvania are ridiculously small. He would have to get Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, AND Arizona. All 4. Nevada actually doesn't really matter that much.

 

Also, I've seen many indicators that Iowa may actually be in play. That only helps Harris.

  • Halal 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
legend

legend

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Fizzzzle said:

So, what do we do? Honestly, the answer is simple. Get involved in local politics. Go to your next city council meeting. Become a voice that elected officials are forced to hear. Get involved in local organizations (if your city has a Strong Towns organization, that's a great place to start)

 

 

I'm afraid this probably isn't a solution with significant leverage. I'm not saying people shouldn't do it, it helps, but I don't think the foundational issues are going to go away with it. Local politics is just as corrupt, if not more corrupt, than the federal level. Some truly gross and ethically repugnant people are involved and much like Trump, they still get votes.

 

I don't know what the answer is. People vote against their own interests because they are easily manipulated. I think the only way we dent this thing is having a cultural revolution, and I have no idea how to do that for something this big and interconnected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fizzzzle

Fizzzzle

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

There may be GOP-held House seats that are in play, but the state as a whole is absolutely not in play for Harris.

In June, Biden trailed Trump by 18 points. Now, according to Axios, Trump's lead over Harris in Iowa is well within their 3.8% MOE. Again according to Axios, they're basically saying Democrats might actually show up to vote.

 

 

Just now, legend said:

 

I'm afraid this probably isn't a solution with significant leverage. I'm not saying people shouldn't do it, it helps, but I don't think the foundational issues are going to go away with it. Local politics is just as corrupt, if not more corrupt, than the federal level. Some truly gross and ethically repugnant people are involved and much like Trump, they still get votes.

 

I don't know what the answer is. People vote against their own interests because they are easily manipulated. I think the only way we dent this thing is having a cultural revolution, and I have no idea how to do that for something this big and interconnected.

 

Believe me, I know how corrupt local politics can be. My point is you have to start with what you can actually affect. Your vote for president is a drop of rain in the ocean. Your voice in local politics can be a bucket of water dumped in in a bathtub. It may still not be much, but it's something.

  • Halal 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SuperSpreader

SuperSpreader

Posted
Posted
chief-justice-john-roberts-photo-via-bre

'Shaken': Analyst claims John Roberts has been left reeling from immunity ruling backlash - Raw Story

WWW.RAWSTORY.COM
Supreme Court Justice John Roberts has been left "shaken" by the unexpected public reaction to his ruling in the Donald Trump presidential immunity case, a columnist wrote Friday.Slate's judicial...

 

 

John Roberts might be one of the dumbest people on the planet.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sblfilms

sblfilms

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Fizzzzle said:

There is no path to victory for Trump if he doesn't win both Georgia AND Pennsylvania. Arizona won't do it for him.


Assuming Harris wins NV and Trump wins AZ, any permutation of 3 states from GA, PA, MI, NC, and WI win it for Trump. If I had to guess was the campaign believes, it is that PA is the best bet of PA/MI/WI to go his way, and that GA/NC are very likely to go Trump.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chairslinger

Chairslinger

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Keyser_Soze said:

This Kamala Harris ad goes hard

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Uaarkson said:


Fuck yeah 

 

 

 

THAT is how you make Trump pay for his bullshit!

 

That is a hell of an ad.

 

We talk about double standards between the parties and this is a great example. When Harris wins MI, if the roles were reversed the media would be tearing it's hair out how the candidate cost themselves the state with such a huge own goal that fed the other campaign that banger of an ad.

  • Halal 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
5timechamp

5timechamp

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fizzzzle said:

 

Believe me, I know how corrupt local politics can be. My point is you have to start with what you can actually affect. Your vote for president is a drop of rain in the ocean. Your voice in local politics can be a bucket of water dumped in in a bathtub. It may still not be much, but it's something.

 

Its wild to see that the mechanisms of crazy that affect national politics have festered and grown even worse at the local levels.. there are some high level loons fighting to get their foot in the door in every state now..

 

Its just crazy to think that so many “unseen” billionaires are just buying up votes and influence like some sort of national monopoly game… the so-called Democracy that everyone fights to preserve has already been morphed into “privatized communism”… not sure how you dislodge that beyond having limits on campaign donations and interested parties arent about to do that

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MarSolo

MarSolo

Posted
Posted

I missed everything posted here last night, so to reply to @Greatoneshere’s post…

 

I still feel hope, and some gloom & doom, but I’m also realistic. I can’t see after EVERYTHING that’s happened in the last four years; the pandemic, the insurrection, the Dobbs decision, the convictions, the leaks from Woodward’s book regarding Trump’s treason, etc, that Trump is going to walk back into the White House. 
 

But I think as a community of mostly guys, we underestimate women at our own peril. 
 

And if I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

  • stepee 1
  • Halal 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sblfilms

sblfilms

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

It’s precisely because nothing has happened since Kamala entered the race that you see doom and gloom


I think some people got a little too overboard when the swap happened feeling like the race was now overwhelmingly in the favor of the Dems, when really we simply returned to the level set of the last two election cycles: very close contests in a handful of states will decide it.

  • True 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...