SaysWho? Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Mr. Beat agrees with Allen Lichtman that Harris will win: He's got a huge following due to his videos on U.S. presidents and U.S. political history. Both predicted a Trump win in 2016. KEEP UNDERDOGGING AND PRETEND THAT THEY'RE ON METH FOR NOW 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comet Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 11 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: I guess they are going full-out on "dirty, sick, criminal immigrants" message. GOP-ran Ohio must really fucking suck 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CastletonSnob Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Should we be surprised by how well Harris did in the debate? She has a background as a prosecutor. She knows how to deal with bullies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5timechamp Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 5 hours ago, Fizzzzle said: The good news is, as of right now, both misery index and real GDP per capita are both improved from last year. So unless we have a massive recession in the next 2 months, Harris' odds of losing are pretty low, as long as the model holds true. Thats fine and all but for Joe “commoner” the economy is still horrible rent, housing and most importantly groceries are vastly too expensive is their existing narrative and they lay that at the feet of the Dems.. Even outside of that things look healthy for Kamala in a normal election… it remains to be seen how many Kamala votes get purged and if the MAGAts manage to steal enough state electoral votes when it comes time to vote… pucker factor is still high, though the candidate herself and the Dems have done nearly everything in their power correctly to get this done.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 10 minutes ago, CastletonSnob said: Should we be surprised by how well Harris did in the debate? She has a background as a prosecutor. She knows how to deal with bullies. She has improved her public speaking. Before she came off really strange. She is getting great coaching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fizzzzle Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 22 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said: This breakdown was incredibly useful and informative. I think relying on those two factors combined are pretty strong indicators of how people feel about their lives under a president in this country even if they don't know it's those two factors affecting them. If we are on the upswing with both factors, that makes me feel a bit better about Harris' chances this November, despite this being a weird election that could also easily fall into the exceptional cases you pointed out. I think I would have agreed if Harris didn't slide in so seamlessly. I was of the opinion that it was too late for Biden to pull out. In case you want the full breakdown: Spoiler Green = Misery index worse but GDP better Red = Both misery index and GDP worse Blue =Both misery index and GDP better Underlined = The years where the model was wrong 1916: Incumbent party (Wilson) won. Note - one of the tightest elections in US history. Came down to a couple thousand votes in CA and MN. 1920: Incumbent party (Cox) lost 1924: Incumbent party (Coolidge) won 1928: Incumbent party (Hoover) won - Note - Misery index was only up by less than half a point and GDP was only down $79 1932: Incumbent party (Hoover) lost 1936: Incumbent party (Roosevelt) won 1940: Incumbent party (Roosevelt) still won. Note - no fucking shot FDR loses in 1940 anyway, he was way too popular 1944: Incumbent party (Roosevelt) won 1948: Incumbent party (Truman) won 1952: Incumbent party (Stevenson) lost - Note - no fucking shot Eisenhower was losing an election in 50's America, regardless of the economy. 1956: Incumbent party (Eisenhower) still won. Note - see above. 1960: Incumbent party (Nixon) lost. Note - Kennedy only won the popular vote by about 100k votes. 1964: Incumbent party (Johnson) won 1968: Incumbent party (Humphrey) lost. Note - The Dems were in total disarray after LBJ dropped out and then the presumptive nominee (RFK) was assassinated 2 months later 1972: Incumbent party (Nixon) won 1976: Incumbent party (Ford) lost. Note - Watergate. 1980: Incumbent party (Carter) lost 1984: Incumbent party (Reagan) won 1988: Incumbent party (Bush) won 1992: Incumbent party (Bush) lost. Note - Ross Perot won almost 20% of the popular vote. Hard to say with certainty the effect that had, if any. 1996: Incumbent party (Clinton) won 2000: Incumbent party (Gore) lost. Note - one of the tightest elections in US history. Came down to hundreds of votes in FL. 2004: Incumbent party (Bush) won 2008: Incumbent party (McCain) lost 2012: Incumbent party (Obama) won 2016: Incumbent party (Clinton) lost. Note - Clinton won the popular vote handily and the election came down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states 2020: Incumbent party (Trump) lost 2024: Incumbent party (Harris) tentatively has an upturned economy. Misery index is down and real GDP per capita is up 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Harris should accept the CBS/Univision/WSJ debate offer and if the other side declines, request that it become a town hall. I know the CNN article says that the campaign doesn't "trust" traditional media, but they ignore it at their own peril. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Harris should accept the CBS/Univision/WSJ debate offer and if the other side declines, request that it become a town hall. I know the CNN article says that the campaign doesn't "trust" traditional media, but they ignore it at their own peril. Take invites from all the (non-insane) media Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 25 minutes ago, Comet said: GOP-ran Ohio must really fucking suck Conservative governments always make people's lives worse, and that is why they increasingly need larger and more extreme scapegoats to keep people's attention occupied. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 49 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Mr. Beat agrees with Allen Lichtman that Harris will win: Trying to get those hits off of people who misspell Mr. Beast 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 Cool! I'm sure the media will give this as much national attention as Biden being slower at speaking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, SaysWho? said: I paid $2.69 yesterday. Nice. Thats equivalent to paying $2.20 in 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Cool! I'm sure the media will give this as much national attention as Biden being slower at speaking. It’s insane the shit that isn’t getting covered by the media: Trump bringing a 9/11 truther as his date to the 9/11 Memorial. Trump desecrating an American flag with his signature. Trump possibly being in a sexual relationship with Laura Loomer while Melania is no where to be seen. Literally anything about the assassination attempt; medical records, etc. But remember, Hillary collapsed from exhaustion due to having the flu at the 9/11 Memorial in 2016 and it turned into a month long story about her physical fitness for the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: I guess they are going full-out on "dirty, sick, criminal immigrants" message. I've read multiple reports that crime rates in Springfield are not up and that there was no noticeable increase in crime due to the Haitian immigrants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, SaysWho? said: PRETEND THAT THEY'RE ON METH They are tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CastletonSnob Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Just saw a poll that only had Trump up by 10 points in INDIANA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, Comet said: GOP-ran Ohio must really fucking suck Can confirm. My home town went to Trump by 50ish points and there’s no or virtually no immigrants or people of color and it’s a fucking dump, and the last bit of economic vitality died during the Trump admin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Just now, CastletonSnob said: Just saw a poll that only had Trump up by 10 points in INDIANA. Ignore polls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 14 minutes ago, ort said: I've read multiple reports that crime rates in Springfield are not up and that there was no noticeable increase in crime due to the Haitian immigrants. when Republicans are in power they always say crime is down, and when a Democrat are in power they always say crime is up. It never matters if it true or not. Some Republicans when fact checked on it will just say “well it feels true that there is more crime”. an old old tactic they’ve been using to demonize non-cis hetero whites for decades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 While I doubt it's true, there are now rumors that Trump and Loomer are having an affair... Fuck Trump, I hope it becomes a thing if it's true or not. Vance can fuck couches and Trump can fuck insane racist face-paralyzed internet trolls. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 We should get some announcements regarding town halls and interviews next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 37 minutes ago, ort said: I've read multiple reports that crime rates in Springfield are not up and that there was no noticeable increase in crime due to the Haitian immigrants. It's pretty well understood that first generation immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than the general population. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comet Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Conservative governments always make people's lives worse, and that is why they increasingly need larger and more extreme scapegoats to keep people's attention occupied. I live in Texas so I know how bad it is. But if these asshats are going to use a republican state as an example of how bad things are just remind them who’s in charge of the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Also re: looker and trump. This is what sleeping your way to the top looks like 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Also re: looker and trump. This is what sleeping your way to the top looks like what a typo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 I'm worried this stupid Haitian immigrant thing works for Trump 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finaljedi Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Got a little demonstration of Cause 2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: I guess they are going full-out on "dirty, sick, criminal immigrants" message. And effect 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Cool! I'm sure the media will give this as much national attention as Biden being slower at speaking. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uaarkson Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 What a great way to teach those nasty Haitians a lesson. By *checks notes* calling in bomb threats to an elementary school. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Well, see the Republicans are right. There is more crime in Springfield Ohio because of the Haitian immigrants. Check mate libs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Ignore polls IMO they will continue to generally show a dead heat. And that portends a huge problem that might very well survive Trump, whether he wins again or not. It kind of implies a darker interpretation of Kamala's "we're not going back" mantra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted September 13 Author Share Posted September 13 49 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said: I'm worried this stupid Haitian immigrant thing works for Trump Perhaps. I hope the people who already foam at the mouth about immigrants are voting for Trump already. He needs to keep in mind there are 500,000 voting members of the Haitian community in Florida. I don't think Harris will win Florida, but no need to make enemies of entire ethnicities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 30 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: And that portends a huge problem that might very well survive Trump, whether he wins again or not. It kind of implies a darker interpretation of Kamala's "we're not going back" mantra. I don't know that this is going to happen because Trump is a unique cult of personality - who do you see filling in the void? Republicans have nothing without that cult of personality in terms of followers/voters. Trump is highly unique and not replicable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cusideabelincoln Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 3 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said: I don't know that this is going to happen because Trump is a unique cult of personality - who do you see filling in the void? Republicans have nothing without that cult of personality in terms of followers/voters. Trump is highly unique and not replicable. There's plenty of fostered hate for Demoncrats out there to fill their hearts without Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finaljedi Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 3 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said: I don't know that this is going to happen because Trump is a unique cult of personality - who do you see filling in the void? Republicans have nothing without that cult of personality in terms of followers/voters. Trump is highly unique and not replicable. It is really fortunate that everyone who has tried to be the next Trump acts like an alien pod person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Just now, finaljedi said: It is really fortunate that everyone who has tried to be the next Trump acts like an alien pod person. Exactly, no one has come to fill the void, which is why they're still trotting out almost 80-year old Trump instead. I mean Josh Hawley? DeSantis? Gaetz? MTG? Boebert? JD Vance? There's no one, which is why 2028 we might get an actual Democratic primary where policy matters again (though Harris will run as an incumbent so probably not until 2032 sadly to get real policy discussions). So we're waiting 8 years, but I'll take avoiding fascism for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.