S3xB0t Posted Wednesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:48 PM 1 hour ago, Jason said: Liberal NIMBYs Are Helping Red States DARRELLOWENS.SUBSTACK.COM California, Oregon and New York are just five years away from losing 10 congressional seats and electoral college votes to Republican states. 1 hour ago, SaysWho? said: I remember reading what Riley shared weeks/months ago and I just read this and I feel this makes a LOT of assumptions. How do they know who's moving? We've gotten many midwestern Republicans moving down to Florida, which is a big reason why it's been harder for Democrats to win here. By the logic of folks like the author here, that would make the upper midwest more winnable for Democrats. But this seems to be assuming that those people moving are liberals due to income. And I mean, there's something to people more disadvantaged being Democrats, but many low income people are also Republican and somehow think Trump is their champion for reasons that still make no sense. Many who are moving to Florida are NOT liberals. I wish they were, to be honest. This was said in 2004 after Kerry won New Hampshire and flipped the state from Republican to Democratic but before he ended up losing Iowa/New Mexico. He was still at an electoral disadvantage. I specifically remember Larry King asking about it and being told by their analyst at the time that the south was gaining strength electorally and so it would be harder for Democrats to win with just their electoral bastions in New York, California, and Illinois. What happened? Obama easily won in 2008 by expanding the electoral map. Virginia became a purple state to a blue-leaning purple state. North Carolina voted Democratic. Indiana voted Democratic. Nebraska's 2nd voted for Obama. Colorado voted for Obama and is a reliably blue state after being a mostly Republican one. New Mexico and Iowa returned to Democrats. Montana was within 3 points. Some of those states reverted, but you also had states such as Georgia and Arizona which finally flipped to Democrats in 2020 (and hopefully will again). The map could look much different in terms of competitiveness in 2032. California used to be a solidly Republican state with a ton of electoral votes. It was in many ways what Texas is to Republicans now, while Texas was more Democratic in the 60s and 70s. And Texas passing California in 20 years won't matter if Texas votes like California in 20 years. There's a lot of unproven assumptions, and I don't know where the information is coming from as to why people are leaving, who's leaving, etc. etc. Great points. What is undeniable is that people are leaving blue states for red ones, where presumably there’s stronger GOP infrastructure. That could make changing voting patterns an uphill battle. However, we’ve seen with Texas that Democratic voters are trending upward, albeit slowly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted Wednesday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:06 PM 5 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: Republicans’ Electoral College Edge, Once Seen as Ironclad, Looks to Be Fading - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM A review of the evidence that Donald Trump’s advantage relative to the national popular vote has declined significantly. TLDR NYTs polling shows only a .7% difference in the EC and Popular vote, in the GOP's favor. This is all well and good but it doesn't change the fact that somebody in Wyoming's vote counts more than 3x as much as mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted Wednesday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:22 PM This is actual Nazi shit. He deserves to be drawn and quartered. It's sick how openly racist the Republicans are now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted Wednesday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:28 PM Harris Outlines Economic Plan, Casting Herself as a Pro-Business Candidate - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM Declaring “I am a capitalist” in a speech in Pittsburgh, Kamala Harris promised not to be “constrained by ideology” even as she said she would fiercely defend unions and the middle class. Quote During a speech in Pittsburgh in which she declared “I am a capitalist,” Ms. Harris promised to protect and expand U.S. manufacturing as she tried to convince voters that she will defend and lift up the middle class. ... Speaking not with the trappings of a raucous campaign rally but in front of the sober signage of the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, Ms. Harris delivered remarks seemingly tailored to voters sitting in wood-paneled offices reading the print edition of The Wall Street Journal. Such voters may have supported John McCain and Mitt Romney, and might believe the economy was better four years ago, but the Harris campaign appears to be hoping that many will now have trouble stomaching the idea of voting for former President Donald J. Trump. ... She also pledged to invest in what she described as some of the most promising industries of the 21st century: bio-manufacturing, aerospace, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology and clean energy. The goal, she said, should be that “the next generation of breakthroughs — from advanced batteries to geothermal to advanced nuclear — are not just invented but built here in America by American workers.” ... At one point on Wednesday, Ms. Harris shouted out both the rank-and-file labor movement members who traditionally back her party and the city where she spoke. As president, she promised to offer tax credits for “expanding good union jobs in steel and iron and manufacturing communities like here in Mon Valley,” short for the Monongahela Valley, an industrial region south of Pittsburgh that has suffered as American industry declined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted Wednesday at 11:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:11 PM 48 minutes ago, thewhyteboar said: This is actual Nazi shit. He deserves to be drawn and quartered. It's sick how openly racist the Republicans are now. I don’t want to denigrate any Republicans here, but it’s insane that they can’t even spell a simple word like “voodoo”. And for any Republicans here, “denigrate” means “put down”. 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xbob42 Posted Wednesday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:27 PM Also, our president and VP? Fucker doesn't even know who's in the white house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted Wednesday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:31 PM 2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: Trump is actually right here but it’s not a presidential issue by any means Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Wednesday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:34 PM the fuck Secret Service agent under investigation for alleged sex assault on Harris aide WWW.CNBC.COM The alleged sexual assault of a Kamala Harris staffer comes as the Secret Service takes heat over the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Wednesday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:35 PM 7 minutes ago, Xbob42 said: Also, our president and VP? Fucker doesn't even know who's in the white house. Donald Trump is the REAL president but also gets two more terms because Sleepy Joe stole the election and Democrats didn't let him do whatever he wanted during his first term. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S3xB0t Posted Wednesday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:59 PM 22 minutes ago, Jason said: the fuck Secret Service agent under investigation for alleged sex assault on Harris aide WWW.CNBC.COM The alleged sexual assault of a Kamala Harris staffer comes as the Secret Service takes heat over the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Why the fuck was he getting drunk on a work trip? Fucking cops, man. Standards for thee, not for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted Thursday at 12:13 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:13 AM I mean all cops are bastards, and all secret service are drunk bastards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted Thursday at 12:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:32 AM Major policy speech from Harris today in Pennsylvania, and another interview, this time on msnbc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBladeRoden Posted Thursday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:47 AM Whoever came up with mixing press conferences with rally/WWE audiences was devious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted Thursday at 03:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:36 AM 47 minutes ago, TheBladeRoden said: Whoever came up with mixing press conferences with rally/WWE audiences was devious. "Boooo, stop confronting us with our hypocrisy Boooooo!!!" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Thursday at 05:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:17 AM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Thursday at 06:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:27 AM Wisconsin mayor carts away absentee ballot drop box, says he did nothing wrong APNEWS.COM The mayor of a central Wisconsin city who ran for office on his opposition to absentee ballot drop boxes says he did nothing wrong when he removed a drop box outside City Hall. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Thursday at 06:30 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:30 AM Donald Trump's Long Island rally cost taxpayers at least $1 million, Democrats say. They're seeking reimbursement. WWW.CBSNEWS.COM Democrats in the Nassau County Legislature are calling for a federal investigation into taxpayer funding for security at Donald Trump's rally at the Nassau Coliseum Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Thursday at 07:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 07:07 AM just innocent tourists Harris campaign office damaged by gunfire in Arizona WWW.NBCNEWS.COM No one was present or injured at the office, a state Democratic Party spokesperson said. Tempe police said they are investigating the incident as a property crime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted Thursday at 02:04 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:04 PM If they have the money, then it's definitely worth it, even if there's only an outside chance of winning. However, the better move is to spend this money (and build a state-wide network) between campaigns so that you have a real shot the next time around. I don't have much hope for Florida, but yes, Texas should be invested in now to help pay off in 4-12 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reputator Posted Thursday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:10 PM Here's the whole interview from MSNBC. Nothing new to any of us who have been following her campaign, but interviews are one of the things people keep saying she needs to do, so here's the latest one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted Thursday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:05 PM Polling seems broken, it's all either the race is tied or Harris is gonna blow the doors off this thing. GOP pollster. General election poll Harris 52% (+7) Trump 45% Last poll (8/25) - Trump +1 Echelon #C - 1005 LV - 9/25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Thursday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:12 PM 5 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Polling seems broken, it's all either the race is tied or Harris is gonna blow the doors off this thing. GOP pollster. General election poll Harris 52% (+7) Trump 45% Last poll (8/25) - Trump +1 Echelon #C - 1005 LV - 9/25 I find it hard to believe that Michigan is a dead heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xbob42 Posted Thursday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:16 PM The dead heat shit seems virtually impossible by now. I don't buy it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reputator Posted Thursday at 11:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:09 PM 1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said: Polling seems broken, it's all either the race is tied or Harris is gonna blow the doors off this thing. Yep. A poll might show Michigan at +6 for Harris. Another shows it a tie. Wisconsin has also been all over the place. NC might show a tie or even plus a few points for Trump or Harris. The one you just posted tells me these people have NO idea what's going to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted Thursday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:27 PM The models each pollster use are borked because their assumptions of the electorate are based on Biden as the nominee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted yesterday at 12:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:00 AM General Election poll - Swing States Arizona - 🔵 Harris +3 Georgia - 🟡 Tie N. Carolina - 🔵 Harris +2 Nevada - 🔵 Harris +7 Michigan - 🔵 Harris +3 Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +5 Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +3 Morning Consult (Bloomberg) #C - LV Gonna blow the doors off this thing!!!!! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted yesterday at 12:04 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:04 AM 1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said: Polling seems broken, it's all either the race is tied or Harris is gonna blow the doors off this thing. GOP pollster. General election poll Harris 52% (+7) Trump 45% Last poll (8/25) - Trump +1 Echelon #C - 1005 LV - 9/25 Your dead heat poll was actually retracted at the request of Emerson. Apparently Pollara decided to round the numbers (to the nearest 50?) for the state polls when publishing, when in fact it wasn't 50-50 for each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted yesterday at 12:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:05 AM I feel like saying this a few more times and he might actually lose Florida. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted yesterday at 12:11 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:11 AM 7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Your dead heat poll was actually retracted at the request of Emerson. Apparently Pollara decided to round the numbers (to the nearest 50?) for the state polls when publishing, when in fact it wasn't 50-50 for each. 50.9-49.1 for Michigan still seems too low for Harris. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LazyPiranha Posted yesterday at 12:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:14 AM I feel like I swing between inevitable dread and the smallest glimmer of optimism all the time. I can’t believe there’s another month and a half of this shit. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM NC gets called for Harris the night of the election and we all go to bed early sleeping the sleep of the blessed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LazyPiranha Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM 23 minutes ago, thewhyteboar said: NC gets called for Harris the night of the election and we all go to bed early sleeping the sleep of the blessed. I had to wait quite a while to drink my celebratory Wild Turkey last year, here’s to hoping I get to do it again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reputator Posted yesterday at 01:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:02 AM 20 minutes ago, LazyPiranha said: I had to wait quite a while to drink my celebratory Wild Turkey last year, here’s to hoping I get to do it again. Why wait? it's either a drink to celebrate or a drink to console yourself, but either way it's justified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted yesterday at 01:11 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:11 AM The NYT wants details! No, no, that’s too many details. [image or embed] — Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) September 26, 2024 at 4:03 PM 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S3xB0t Posted yesterday at 01:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:24 AM 1 hour ago, thewhyteboar said: NC gets called for Harris the night of the election and we all go to bed early sleeping the sleep of the blessed. I took Election Day and the day after off. It’ll just be better to stay at home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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