Jump to content

Rock the Vote '24: update (09/26) - JD Vance VP vetting dossier now available for download


Recommended Posts

WWW.NYTIMES.COM

A review of the evidence that Donald Trump’s advantage relative to the national popular vote has declined significantly.

 

TLDR NYTs polling shows only a .7% difference in the EC and Popular vote, in the GOP's favor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

spacer.png

Maybe I'm just getting cynical about the media, but at this point it really does seem like someone's fudging numbers at least a bit to make it look more like a neck-and-neck race. Not that I actually have a problem with that as it'll get lazy asses off their asses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jason said:
DARRELLOWENS.SUBSTACK.COM

California, Oregon and New York are just five years away from losing 10 congressional seats and electoral college votes to Republican states.

 

 

Oh yeah, elections after 2030 are going to be fucked with the change in EVs to red states. Democrats will need the blue wall and the western sun states and NC or GA just to make it to 270. Or Texas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cost of living in the blue states is pretty jacked and the migration is turning everything else into endless suburban sprawl.  The Democrats might also have real trouble if the republicans can stop being embarrassing for moderates to associate with again.  When Trump drops dead and they dial back the culture war and dog eating shit then that along with population shifts may make it hard for the Dems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Jason said:
DARRELLOWENS.SUBSTACK.COM

California, Oregon and New York are just five years away from losing 10 congressional seats and electoral college votes to Republican states.

 

 

5 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Oh yeah, elections after 2030 are going to be fucked with the change in EVs to red states. Democrats will need the blue wall and the western sun states and NC or GA just to make it to 270. Or Texas.

 

I remember reading what Riley shared weeks/months ago and I just read this and I feel this makes a LOT of assumptions.

  1. How do they know who's moving? We've gotten many midwestern Republicans moving down to Florida, which is a big reason why it's been harder for Democrats to win here. By the logic of folks like the author here, that would make the upper midwest more winnable for Democrats. But this seems to be assuming that those people moving are liberals due to income. And I mean, there's something to people more disadvantaged being Democrats, but many low income people are also Republican and somehow think Trump is their champion for reasons that still make no sense. Many who are moving to Florida are NOT liberals. I wish they were, to be honest. 
  2. This was said in 2004 after Kerry won New Hampshire and flipped the state from Republican to Democratic but before he ended up losing Iowa/New Mexico. He was still at an electoral disadvantage. I specifically remember Larry King asking about it and being told by their analyst at the time that the south was gaining strength electorally and so it would be harder for Democrats to win with just their electoral bastions in New York, California, and Illinois. What happened? Obama easily won in 2008 by expanding the electoral map. Virginia became a purple state to a blue-leaning purple state. North Carolina voted Democratic. Indiana voted Democratic. Nebraska's 2nd voted for Obama. Colorado voted for Obama and is a reliably blue state after being a mostly Republican one. New Mexico and Iowa returned to Democrats. Montana was within 3 points. Some of those states reverted, but you also had states such as Georgia and Arizona which finally flipped to Democrats in 2020 (and hopefully will again). The map could look much different in terms of competitiveness in 2032. 
  3. California used to be a solidly Republican state with a ton of electoral votes. It was in many ways what Texas is to Republicans now, while Texas was more Democratic in the 60s and 70s. And Texas passing California in 20 years won't matter if Texas votes like California in 20 years. 

There's a lot of unproven assumptions, and I don't know where the information is coming from as to why people are leaving, who's leaving, etc. etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Do you have a link for this? Or did someone put it up on Threads/Bluesky and it hasn't made its way into a story yet?

 

WWW.WRAL.COM

The resignations, to take effect in the coming days, follow the departures of at least eight members of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's gubernatorial campaign. Robinson has denied allegations made in a CNN report that said he made racist and lewd comments on a pornographic website decades ago.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

lol

 

 lmao even

 

Yeah, even if the GOP politicians wanted to dial back the racism—which they don't, too many of them are the rubes Fox et al thought they could keep under control—it's now impossible to make it out of a GOP primary without being absolutely awful and batshit. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...