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Rock the Vote '24: update (09/19) - NC GOP gubernatorial candidate is having a helluva day

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5timechamp

5timechamp

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Apparently Huckabee Sanders has joined the chorus of GOP Christian fundamentalists who insist adoptive/foster families arent real families… “Harris lacks humility because she doesnt have children”.. these f’n people are so f’n obnoxious.. they want birth at all costs, some of that may lead to adoptions or foster care yet if they do their family doesnt count..

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Chairslinger

Chairslinger

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7 hours ago, Jason said:
harris-trump3.jpg?w=804

Maybe It Won't Be That Close?

TALKINGPOINTSMEMO.COM
Stuart Rothenberg is one of those old school election watcher/analyst types, from...

 

 

7 hours ago, Reputator said:

 

You don't have to, all it is is an opinion on someone else's opinion. The source article is free to read:

 

2024DNC_TW_616_082224.jpg

So, you’re sure the presidential race will be close? - Roll Call

ROLLCALL.COM
Momentum and candidate skills matter while polls tell only part of the story in the presidential race, columnist Stuart Rothenberg writes.

 

 

I have to say, I have a hard time believing that all the enthusiasm, the huge grassroots donation numbers (particularly from first-timers), the non-insignificant bipartisan support from the other side, and all the ither advantages only result in a barely above margin-of-error poll advantage. So he might have a point.

 

 

 

I kind of skimmed these posts earlier than I saw an article on Yahoo and read it and kind of assumed it was from the same(ish) source but I think it's a different pollster coming to the same conclusion.

 

Anyway, an interesting read....

 

You can read the article for the methodology, but I think these two paragraphs sum up the state of things pretty well for how his model is seeing things....

 

 

Quote

 

Well before the Biden-Trump debate, the Republican was far ahead; on Miller's chart, he stood on top of the ski slope. Trump looked to command almost 400 of the 538 electoral votes in mid-June. After the onstage match on June 27, Trump got even more dominant, and he peaked in the days framing and during the Republican convention at a share of almost 500. The Democrats' odds rose sharply after Biden withdrew on July 21, and by the time Harris secured the nomination on August 6, the Democrats were solidly in the lead at around 325 electoral votes. They kept gaining over the following two weeks, hitting 400 in a stunning reversal by the time their convention ended on August 22.

 

Then, Trump staged a comeback. In the days before the September 10 Trump-Harris debate, Harris was still ahead, but Trump had nearly caught up. "At that point, the race was essentially a tossup," observes Miller. "The forecast for the Democrats was 288." It was the onstage battle in Philadelphia that wrecked the 78-year old former POTUS, according to the Miller numbers. Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes. The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump's chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained for 400-plus vote total.

 

 

 

 

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Reputator

Reputator

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33 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

I kind of skimmed these posts earlier than I saw an article on Yahoo and read it and kind of assumed it was from the same(ish) source but I think it's a different pollster coming to the same conclusion.

 

Anyway, an interesting read....

 

You can read the article for the methodology, but I think these two paragraphs sum up the state of things pretty well for how his model is seeing things....

 

Wow, so that's a pretty wild prediction on the site mentioned.

 

https://virtualtout.com/

 

438 ECs is greater than I think even the most optimistic die-hard leftie fanatic would even dream of.

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b_m_b_m_b_m

b_m_b_m_b_m

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1 hour ago, Chairslinger said:

 

 

 

I kind of skimmed these posts earlier than I saw an article on Yahoo and read it and kind of assumed it was from the same(ish) source but I think it's a different pollster coming to the same conclusion.

 

Anyway, an interesting read....

 

You can read the article for the methodology, but I think these two paragraphs sum up the state of things pretty well for how his model is seeing things....

 

 

 

 

 

This is some serious fan fiction. For trump to get 500 electoral votes he’d have to get California which lol sure

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Xbob42

Xbob42

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Prior to the debate, Trump was posed to win 845 electoral votes, including the votes of England, Canada and even the lower third of Australia. But after the debate, Harris is now leading with an expected 640 electoral votes thanks to Mexico and Greater Ohio. 

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Fizzzzle

Fizzzzle

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19 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Anyways Nate's model has stopped huffing whatever it was on and is coming back to reality.

 

GXx6BiuXcAAjEMK?format=jpg&name=small

Polls are useless garbage. The margin for error is usually accepted to be about three points. Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every election for the last 40 years except 2000, says that the margin for error in polling is more like 9%. At that point you already know who is going to win.

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PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

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1 hour ago, thewhyteboar said:

Hmm. If she’s up that high in PA, why would she be tied nationally? 

Polls wrong or some polls have been showing her slip a bit in blue states like NY where Hochul is a cancer. Ec and ev might just be a lot more balanced this year. 

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Jason

Jason

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Screen-Shot-2024-09-18-at-7.47.34-PM.jpg

Trump Speaks of Nonexistent Debate ‘Audience,’ Says ‘They Went Crazy’

WWW.MEDIAITE.COM
Former President Donald Trump forgot that there was no audience at his presidential debate last week with Vice President Kamala Harris.

 

 

If Biden had said this after the first debate the NYT would still be talking about it today. they would be weaving it into Yankees game recaps.

[image or embed]

— devin kharpertian (@uuords.bsky.social) September 18, 2024 at 10:14 PM
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Jason

Jason

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4 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

FAU national poll (B+), Sep 16-17

Kamala Harris 50%

Donald Trump 45%

 

49% also said Tariffs will hurt them.

 

A lot of polls today, most good for Harris.

 

 

 

bad news for Harris if you just exclude a bunch of polls that are good for Harris

 

 

What the fuck is this chart.

[image or embed]

— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw.bsky.social) September 19, 2024 at 7:59 AM

Also excluding results like "Harris +5" from the chart entirely bsky.app/profile/stri...

[image or embed]

— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw.bsky.social) September 19, 2024 at 8:02 AM
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Jason

Jason

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16 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

Whoa bluesky embedding? Nice.

 

You have to copy their embed code and paste it in here in source mode editor, which it weirdly won't give you in the mobile app. Also videos won't play here, it's just a thumbnail that clicks you through to the site. 

 

The forums will auto embed text only and text with image posts, but the cropping it picks for the image can be weird and will only select the first image if there's multiple. For quote posts it just tells you there's a quote post in the text preview instead of showing it. 

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PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

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Mark-Robinson.jpeg

Upcoming CNN story has Robinson on defense - Business North Carolina

BUSINESSNC.COM
Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is expected to go on CNN today to defend himself regarding a story the national network is preparing, which has contributed to rumors in some GOP circles about Robinson possibly dropping out of the race.

 

 

Basically he said some racist shit about MLK JR, said he was a Black Nazi, which obviously came with some antisemitism.  CNN apparently has the story and hes cancelled 2 campaign events today, but as of now they haven't released the story. 

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PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

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Robinson-1-e1726759271250-768x525.jpeg

Robinson under pressure to withdraw from gubernatorial race

WWW.CAROLINAJOURNAL.COM
North Carolina Republicans are bracing Thursday morning as word spreads about a damning news story looming regarding Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Sources with direct knowledge have spoken with Carolina Journal on the condition of anonymity and said that Robinson is under pressure from staff and members of the Trump campaign to withdraw from the governor's race due to the nature of the story, which they say...

 

 

MAGA picks only the best.

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Jason

Jason

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2 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:
Robinson-1-e1726759271250-768x525.jpeg

Robinson under pressure to withdraw from gubernatorial race

WWW.CAROLINAJOURNAL.COM
North Carolina Republicans are bracing Thursday morning as word spreads about a damning news story looming regarding Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Sources with direct knowledge have spoken with Carolina Journal on the condition of anonymity and said that Robinson is under pressure from staff and members of the Trump campaign to withdraw from the governor's race due to the nature of the story, which they say...

 

 

MAGA picks only the best.

 

Quote

Thursday evening is the state deadline to withdraw from the race. The deadline to remove Robinson’s name from the ballot already has passed.

 

What's the distinction here between getting your name off the ballot and withdrawing from the race? Unless I'm missing something really obvious seems like once your name can't be taken off the ballot all you can do is not campaign.

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GeneticBlueprint

GeneticBlueprint

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Just now, Jason said:

 

 

What's the distinction here between getting your name off the ballot and withdrawing from the race? Unless I'm missing something really obvious seems like once your name can't be taken off the ballot all you can do is not campaign.

 

You can tell people to write in somebody.

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