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Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead

CitizenVectron
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Chairslinger

Chairslinger

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I haven't said anything because I wanted to be closer to the election but now that we are under 2 months I think it's worth saying. 

 

In 2016 and especially 2020 my little Ohio town was absolutely plastered in Trump signs and memorabilia.

 

I just drove down a road today that was probably about 80-90% Trump yard signs in 2020. I shit you not, not a single Trump sign. We got a Jesus 2024, and even some miscellaneous political signs....not a single Trump 2024.

 

This is why I think Kamala leaning into the happy hope and change message is best. In a sane and just world Trump would lose because people have realized the folly of their ways. Recognized his character flaws, charlatantry, and crimes. But the reality of the situation is that I think Trump is going to lose this year because it's been over a decade of this insanity and people are just plain tired of the Trump Show.

 

And that's why Kamala's approach is perfect. The more she reacts to his crazy Tweets, the more you give the rightwing a finger hold to excite the base by "pissing off the libs". I actually don't think the "ignore the bully and they will leave you alone" was always the right strategy against Trump. But this year it is.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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42 minutes ago, Spawn_of_Apathy said:


there’s also the issue that Harris isn’t a clear runaway in enough states for the electoral college victory. She could beat Donald in the popular vote 56%-42%, and it wouldn’t mean shit if Donald got to 270 first. She could have a landslide victory in every state she wins and lose the election. 

 

Oh for sure. But Nate has received (deserved) flack for weighting an InsiderAdvantage poll more heavily than a Suffolk poll for PA, as an example:

 

kMIrazF.png

 

So it's not just national polls, he's doing it for swing states.

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Spawn_of_Apathy

Spawn_of_Apathy

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9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Oh for sure. But Nate has received (deserved) flack for weighting an InsiderAdvantage poll more heavily than a Suffolk poll for PA, as an example:

 

kMIrazF.png

 

So it's not just national polls, he's doing it for swing states.


he’ll probably say otherwise, but I suspect it is because Republicans will claim bias against them and get all riled up, even when it is purely data and fact driven. Because they feel like Donald is poling better. Or in their completely unbiased pole of 990 Republicans and 10 democrats Donald has an overwhelming majority showing Nate Silver’s obvious liberal bias. 

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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3 minutes ago, Spawn_of_Apathy said:


he’ll probably say otherwise, but I suspect it is because Republicans will claim bias against them and get all riled up, even when it is purely data and fact driven. Because they feel like Donald is poling better. Or in their completely unbiased pole of 990 Republicans and 10 democrats Donald has an overwhelming majority showing Nate Silver’s obvious liberal bias. 

 

Probably! It's why Republican-tied pollsters keep flooding the zone (they did the same in 2022). It drives the media narrative to look like a red wave...and then the real voting results come in. Honestly I think the main reason is to justify discrediting the actual results. "80% of polls showed Trump winning, and now the votes don't, so the votes must be wrong!!"

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Littleronin

Littleronin

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I just got done filling out a questionnaire from a polling company that didn't feel like it was just a straight poll. They were almost coming off as trying to convince you why you polling answers were against what they want. This poll was mainly about President choice and Nevada Question 3,6, and 7. Which are open primaries with ranked choice, protections for abortions and voter ID laws.

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SuperSpreader

SuperSpreader

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6 minutes ago, Littleronin said:

I just got done filling out a questionnaire from a polling company that didn't feel like it was just a straight poll. They were almost coming off as trying to convince you why you polling answers were against what they want. This poll was mainly about President choice and Nevada Question 3,6, and 7. Which are open primaries with ranked choice, protections for abortions and voter ID laws.

 

Yup. Pollsters absolutely have bias and can manipulate results.

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Jason

Jason

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1 hour ago, Reputator said:

 

You don't have to, all it is is an opinion on someone else's opinion. The source article is free to read:

 

2024DNC_TW_616_082224.jpg

So, you’re sure the presidential race will be close? - Roll Call

ROLLCALL.COM
Momentum and candidate skills matter while polls tell only part of the story in the presidential race, columnist Stuart Rothenberg writes.

 

 

I have to say, I have a hard time believing that all the enthusiasm, the huge grassroots donation numbers (particularly from first-timers), the non-insignificant bipartisan support from the other side, and all the ither advantages only result in a barely above margin-of-error poll advantage. So he might have a point.

 

 

The one I linked to (I don't subscribe, I must have had a free article available or something) also basically says "we shouldn't jinx it and should continue acting like we're losing to make sure we don't blow it by people staying home thinking it's a done deal...but there sure is reason to think it won't be close". 

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Jason

Jason

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1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

WISCONSIN poll by Fabrizio (R)/Impact Research (D), Sep 11-14

 

Kamala Harris 49%

Donald Trump 48%

 

Republican pollster, Harris is up 3 points in full field as RFK JR is on the ballot in WI.

 

The courts also won't bail RFK out in Wisconsin. 

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Spawn_of_Apathy

Spawn_of_Apathy

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1 hour ago, SaysWho? said:

 


Firstly, that was awful what happened to her. Secondly, I thank her for allowing the Harris campaign to share her story to use to help emphasize the importance of these decisions and electing the right people. Thirdly, that was a great campaign ad. Good use of a Billie Eilish song too. 

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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9 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Not comfortable with all this good news and optimism.  I'm still telling everyone "Clinton was well ahead of where Harris is right now in 2016" and they should vote like the fate of civilization is balanced on a razor's edge.  (But I'm also smiling inside just a little)

 

Ya know, Bush/Biden/Obama were ahead at this point in their runs as well and ended up winning. Not everything is a comparison for 2016.

 

Spoiler

And yet, a little pessimism to balance things out helps me feel like I'm not surrounding myself only with news I want to hear.

 

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Massdriver

Massdriver

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4 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Oh, and despite all these great polls, Nate Silver still has Trump as the likely winner, as he continues to weight Republican-affiliated pollsters like Trafalgar at the same level as non-partisan pollsters, provided they have a large sample. It's really crazy. 

If Harris retains her polling lead, her chances should creep back up. It's weighing the lack of a Democratic Convention bounce too much from what I can tell. She already got the bounce by the nature of her candidacy in my view.

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Firewithin

Firewithin

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18 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Ya know, Bush/Biden/Obama were ahead at this point in their runs as well and ended up winning. Not everything is a comparison for 2016.

 

  Hide contents

And yet, a little pessimism to balance things out helps me feel like I'm not surrounding myself only with news I want to hear.

 

you can count on us to keep the doomerism going

 

Independence Day Usa GIF by Broad City

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PaladinSolo

PaladinSolo

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2 hours ago, Chairslinger said:

I haven't said anything because I wanted to be closer to the election but now that we are under 2 months I think it's worth saying. 

 

In 2016 and especially 2020 my little Ohio town was absolutely plastered in Trump signs and memorabilia.

 

I just drove down a road today that was probably about 80-90% Trump yard signs in 2020. I shit you not, not a single Trump sign. We got a Jesus 2024, and even some miscellaneous political signs....not a single Trump 2024.

 

This is why I think Kamala leaning into the happy hope and change message is best. In a sane and just world Trump would lose because people have realized the folly of their ways. Recognized his character flaws, charlatantry, and crimes. But the reality of the situation is that I think Trump is going to lose this year because it's been over a decade of this insanity and people are just plain tired of the Trump Show.

 

And that's why Kamala's approach is perfect. The more she reacts to his crazy Tweets, the more you give the rightwing a finger hold to excite the base by "pissing off the libs". I actually don't think the "ignore the bully and they will leave you alone" was always the right strategy against Trump. But this year it is.

This has been my experience, Trump signage is way off, like i legit see as many harris/walz signs as trump shit, almost like a normal election, back in the before time, lol.

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5timechamp

5timechamp

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I think I will stick to my cardiac arrest levels of pessimism and anxiety and be gladly relieved when/if it turns out I was worried too much…

 

theres just too many layers to the onion to relax… can Trump lose clean by way of electoral college, sure … but its gotta happen first…. then you take into account the gamesmanship and multiple vote dumps and lawsuits coming and thats the next hurdle to get across.. and then whatever other idiocy the orange clown has in store… Hes literally fighting for his freedom hes all in on this one… the one thing to hope for is that he somehow crosses a line from which even his most ardent supporters will refuse to follow and this just let him fall from the national spotlight…. and no I have no idea what line that is (cause hes crossed so many and no effect) other than the fact that hes legit lost a few supporters here and there…The SCOTUS will come into play in a big way at some point

     

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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After reviewing six months of nationwide member polling and wrapping up nearly a year of rank-and-file roundtable interviews with all major candidates for the presidency, the union was left with few commitments on top Teamsters issues from either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris—and found no definitive support among members for either party’s nominee.

 

In data publicly released earlier in the day, President Joe Biden won the support of Teamsters voting in straw polls at local unions between April-July prior to his exit from the race. But in independent electronic and phone polling from July-September, a majority of voting members twice selected Trump for a possible Teamsters endorsement over Harris.

 

The union’s extensive member polling showed no majority support for Vice President Harris and no universal support among the membership for President Trump.

 

“The Teamsters thank all candidates for meeting with members face-to-face during our unprecedented roundtables. Unfortunately, neither major candidate was able to make serious commitments to our union to ensure the interests of working people are always put before Big Business. We sought commitments from both Trump and Harris not to interfere in critical union campaigns or core Teamsters industries—and to honor our members’ right to strike—but were unable to secure those pledges,” said Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien.

 

91824Social-No-Endrosement-Presidential_

Teamsters: No Endorsement for U.S. President

TEAMSTER.ORG
(WASHINGTON) — The General Executive Board of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters on Wednesday elected not to endorse any candidate for U.S. President.

 

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Jason

Jason

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56 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

GXx8W5iXgAApu7s?format=jpg&name=medium

 

Trump shutdown incoming!  The vote is scheduled for 6pm tonight, but its DOA to the point where a couple republicans backing it aren't even showing up and will ironically be aa a Trump rally tonight in Long Island.

 

Voters consistently blame Republicans for their shutdowns so if they want to do a shutdown less than two months before the election then :twothumbsup:

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Jason

Jason

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107271806-16893483562023-07-14t145049z_9

Teamsters will not endorse Harris or Trump in 2024 presidential election

WWW.CNBC.COM
The major labor union did not endorse any candidate in the race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

 

 

@jamellebouie.net on Bluesky

BSKY.APP
i wonder if anyone is going to scream at the teamsters union for playing identity politics?

 

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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1 minute ago, Jason said:
107271806-16893483562023-07-14t145049z_9

Teamsters will not endorse Harris or Trump in 2024 presidential election

WWW.CNBC.COM
The major labor union did not endorse any candidate in the race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

 

 

@jamellebouie.net on Bluesky

BSKY.APP
i wonder if anyone is going to scream at the teamsters union for playing identity politics?

 

 

Bro. Two posts above you.

 

56 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

91824Social-No-Endrosement-Presidential_

Teamsters: No Endorsement for U.S. President

TEAMSTER.ORG
(WASHINGTON) — The General Executive Board of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters on Wednesday elected not to endorse any candidate for U.S. President.

 

 

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