SuperSpreader Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 5 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: Question as a foreigner: In Canada, we have nationwide polls. However, most of the discussion focuses on the modelling around the seats, and what it takes to get a majority in parliament. However, I mostly just see national polling discussed here. Isn't that mostly irrelevant? Isn't what matters how the state-by-state voting turns into electoral college delegates? (i.e. What really matters is the swing states -- and for Biden specifically WI, MI and PA? -- and potentially GA?) Americans didn't understand the electoral college until Bush v Gore and we still see it as a pop vote election (it isn't) and that's how the media covers it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: Question as a foreigner: In Canada, we have nationwide polls. However, most of the discussion focuses on the modelling around the seats, and what it takes to get a majority in parliament. However, I mostly just see national polling discussed here. Isn't that mostly irrelevant? Isn't what matters how the state-by-state voting turns into electoral college delegates? (i.e. What really matters is the swing states -- and for Biden specifically WI, MI and PA? -- and potentially GA?) Yes, ultimately what matters most is the swing states but those can be difficult to model and nation-wide polling is *usually* pretty informative. That seems to be becoming less the case with time though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 ElectoralVote ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. This looking like Kerry v Bush rn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reputator Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: Some polls coming out showing a slight 'lead' for Trump, but some polls also showing no change, and one showing Biden with a lead: Donald Trump behind in post-debate poll WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM The survey also found that a "47 percent plurality of Democrats" said Biden should be replaced as the candidate. But in reality, none of the polls really show 'leads' or 'deficits' outside of the margin of error, so the situation essentially remains the same as it was before. This could change, as it sometimes takes a little time for an event's effects on public opinion to show up in polls--but it might not. (And that assumes you actually trust the polls--I, for one, would be very happy if polling is now officially a defunct science whose methods have stopped working and all the pollsters are underestimating Biden's support by 20 points) Either way, I think it's possible the media outcry will actually do more damage to Biden than the actual debate. Or maybe, for once, we'll actually benefit from the fact that people are using their meta and twitter/X feeds as their primary news source and don't pay attention to legacy news media. So far the only beneficiary has been Trump and other right-wing authoritarians banking on the fact that people don't know what's actually happening in the world around them and how bigly they're being screwed. I think we can safely say pretty definitely that Democrats have consistently over-performed their polling numbers in every major race and run-off over the past four years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, SuperSpreader said: ElectoralVote ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. This looking like Kerry v Bush rn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Good primer on how it would work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Dem Governors going to The White House... via Zoom...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 That's just it, if Biden isn't always like that they should be trying to prove it but his schedule for this week is basically travel to DC from Wilmington give a speech on extreme weather, go back to Wilmington, it's the basement campaign they gop claimed he was running 2020 but for real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2024 National GE: Trump 49% (+6) Biden 43% . Trump 47% (+2) Harris 45% . Trump 48% (+5) Newsom 43% . Trump 47% (+4) Buttigieg 43% . Trump 47% (+5) Whitmer 42% . @CNN , 1,045 RV, 6/28-30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I know I’m talking into an echo chamber here, but it’s insane to me that Trump is even ALLOWED to run after January 6th, not to mention the classified documents case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 8 minutes ago, MarSolo said: I know I’m talking into an echo chamber here, but it’s insane to me that Trump is even ALLOWED to run after January 6th, not to mention the classified documents case. He should have been Mussolini’d on Jan 21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 4 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: He should have been Mussolini’d on June 14, 1946 Fixed that for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I really feel like this how Germany was in the final days of the Weimar Republic. And going with this analogy, is this SCOTUS ruling the equivalent of the Enabling Act? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 10 minutes ago, MarSolo said: Fixed that for you. Doctors said his mom should have had an abortion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 21 hours ago, Spork3245 said: Oh Rejoice…? I mean, this may be exactly the boost that Biden needs to capture the youth vote! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 So Pelosi went on MSNBC and said questioning Biden's condition is a legitimate question, Clyburn said he'd support Harris if he stepped aside, Austin Dem Rep Lloyd Doggett has called for him to step aside, and now Biden is doing an interview with ABC, won't be aired live. Also internal polling is uhhh not great. "Leaked polling from Democratic data firm OpenLabs shows Biden sinking in battleground states + putting states like Virginia, NH, New Mexico in play for Trump. AND now - Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Pete outpolling him in swing states.A confidential polling memo confirming their worst fears- Biden’s support tumbles in key battlegrounds…his diminished standing is putting states like New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico in play for Trump." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Clyburn's statement is definitely one that raises eyebrows because of his influence/authority within the House Democratic leadership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sblfilms Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 It is not impossible for Biden to win, but the road is very bumpy. Dems win most frequently when turnout is up, which requires some combination of excitement for the Dem candidate and disdain for the GOP candidate. They have the latter in this election, but very little of the former. I do not see a reasonable path to changing candidates as you really need to go with Harris first, and she is no more likely to win than Biden. I think the best strategy for the Dems as a whole is to focus money on protecting the Senate majority and potentially flipping the house, maybe picking up some more governorships, finding some state court seats to flip, etc. Those will have meaningful impacts for their positions in a Trump II world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Just now, sblfilms said: I do not see a reasonable path to changing candidates as you really need to go with Harris first, and she is no more likely to win than Biden. Why? Would pissing off her supporters flip the election? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 19 hours ago, Greatoneshere said: I agree but this is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Most people feel better going with the devil you know (Biden) over the devil you don't (some new candidate) this late into the race. No Democrat has ever won after a contested convention - not in 1924 with John Davis and not in 1968 with Hubert Humphrey after Robert Kennedy Sr. was assassinated. Maybe Robert Kennedy could have won (it looked like he might) but the actual candidate after Lyndon Johnson stepped aside was Hubert Humphrey and he lost. So, we really want to go to that well a third time and against Trump of all people? Biden has a litany of accomplishments he can at least hammer home as well as name recognition (good and bad), etc. I just don't see him stepping down and given history, we'd likely lose the election as well. Biden just needs to ramp up the campaigning and advertising these next four months in all the right places and ways and that's what we'll have to rely on. If he steps aside, an open convention is a guaranteed loss, IMO. At least that's what history tells us. Not to mention all of Biden's ground-game advantage would disappear in that scenario--his infrastructure can't simply be transferred to another rando outside the administration, nor his campaign funds, and that's his second-biggest advantage. And some brand new face couldn't leverage any of the advantages of incumbency, which is his biggest asset. I still think the only way a candidate switcheroo works is if Biden steps down and hands the reins of the presidency over to Harris--soon--who could possibly inherit those advantages, and theoretically run on his record. (She could also leverage an appealing VP pick from a swing-state) And I still don't know if that really helps. She'd need to step up her game, and the right-wing propaganda machine would immediately try to cook up a "Did she know that Biden was compromised?!" campaign she'd have to fight. Just...no bueno all around 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Based on the polling and the leaks about meetings and such, I am changing my prediction to Biden dropping out (possibly even stepping down as President...though I think those chances are slim), and Harris becoming the nominee (who will choose a popular white male governor as her VP pick). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sblfilms Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 7 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said: Why? Would pissing off her supporters flip the election? Passing over a Black woman who is next in line for almost CERTAINLY a white man would be met with quite the backlash from the Dem’s most rock solid voting bloc: Black women. And when you consider where Trump needs to flip states to win in November, Black women revolting against the Dems in a meaningful way could easily be the decider in a large number of swing states. Obviously they wouldn’t likely go vote for Trump, but they might stay home. And that hurts both in the presidential election and down ballot. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Bold prediction: a Harris/Whitmer ticket could be HOT fire. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greatoneshere Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: If he steps aside, an open convention is a guaranteed loss, IMO. At least that's what history tells us. Not to mention all of Biden's ground-game advantage would disappear in that scenario--his infrastructure can't simply be transferred to another rando outside the administration, nor his campaign funds, and that's his second-biggest advantage. And some brand new face couldn't leverage any of the advantages of incumbency, which is his biggest asset. I still think the only way a candidate switcheroo works is if Biden steps down and hands the reins of the presidency over to Harris--soon--who could possibly inherit those advantages, and theoretically run on his record. (She could also leverage an appealing VP pick from a swing-state) And I still don't know if that really helps. She'd need to step up her game, and the right-wing propaganda machine would immediately try to cook up a "Did she know that Biden was compromised?!" campaign she'd have to fight. Just...no bueno all around Exactly. There's just no good historical precedent to suggest an open convention is a good idea if we want to win in November. I get the bad debate and I get the polls are close 4 months away but this would probably sink the entire thing. Harris is very unpopular and it feeds the "Biden was compromised" during his presidency narrative and can she ride on his successes when she was just VP? None of the options are good, which is why I think we stick with what we have and do better grassroots campaigning and stronger advertising on the issues, abortion, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 18 minutes ago, sblfilms said: Passing over a Black woman who is next in line for almost CERTAINLY a white man would be met with quite the backlash from the Dem’s most rock solid voting bloc: Black women. And when you consider where Trump needs to flip states to win in November, Black women revolting against the Dems in a meaningful way could easily be the decider in a large number of swing states. Obviously they wouldn’t likely go vote for Trump, but they might stay home. And that hurts both in the presidential election and down ballot. Also with Harris every Biden campaign field office can immediately be turned into a Harris field office, and continue using the donor networks and GOTV operations set up for the Biden campaign. Not possible for someone who isn't already on his ticket--they'd have to start from scratch, and hope they can spin up something formidable enought to win in four months. Good luck with that. Edit: 11 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said: Harris is very unpopular and it feeds the "Biden was compromised" during his presidency narrative and can she ride on his successes when she was just VP? The media is not really thinking about the issue rigorously. I see very little consideration of the inevitable "Biden was compromised" narrative in any of the fantasy football scenarios the commentariat is now running through. It would be a considerable headwind to whoever replaces him, including Harris. And yes, she'd have to paint herself as more of a 'partner' to Biden's decision-making than she's previously been perceived as. (and more than she probably was in reality) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Harris is our best option, its seems pretty clear from leaks out of the biden campaign that the debate was not a one off thing, and the last thing we need is to nominate our candidate and then have him do it again a few weeks later as voting starts in the 2nd debate. Who knows first Woman president could be a pretty useful news cycle along with name recognition boost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Mandatory Michelle Obama Poll. #New General Election Poll Michelle Obama 50% Trump 39% Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 10 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Harris is our best option, its seems pretty clear from leaks out of the biden campaign that the debate was not a one off thing, and the last thing we need is to nominate our candidate and then have him do it again a few weeks later as voting starts in the 2nd debate. Who knows first Woman president could be a pretty useful news cycle along with name recognition boost. If she also picks a really good strong VP too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stepee Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I demand the swift poll numbers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 10 minutes ago, stepee said: I demand the swift poll numbers Swift: 99.999% Trump: 1% *this polling has a 1.001% margin of error 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 A possible combination would be Harris with North Carolina's outgoing twice-elected Democratic governor Roy Cooper as VP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 3 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: A possible combination would be Harris with North Carolina's outgoing twice-elected Democratic governor Roy Cooper as VP. You can't steal him from us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Just now, Jwheel86 said: You can't steal him from us! He's practically packed his bags anyway, so might as well put him to good use! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said: He's practically packed his bags anyway, so might as well put him to good use! I'm sure he loves the idea of going from one useless office (NC Governor's Office is constitutionally/legally the weakest in the country) to an even more powerless office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 59 minutes ago, MarSolo said: Bold prediction: a Harris/Whitmer ticket could be HOT fire. Whitmer wants nothing to do with this debacle and she's too valuable to be "sacrificed" for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.