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Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead


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19 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

His meme account absolutely needs to run with that

 

Counterpoint: No president should have anything to do with blowjob memes. :p 

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45 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Honestly if they started a campaign now they'd be fine, there's 4 months left dems don't even officially nominate for almost 2 months, and typically the uninformed don't pay attention till after September. On top of this congressional dems are runn 3-4 points better than Biden, and it's not like people know their congressional reps better than the guy who's president. 

 

Has any candidate won when the incumbent stepped down and we had only 4 months to beat a candidate with a die hard cult following? I don't think so, the math isn't in our favor on this one. And either way it's not realistically happening to entertaining it is pointless.

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2 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Why is everyone glossing over Kamala being passed over would cause the ticket to collapse 

 

Christ this is stupid. Theres no mechanism to replace Biden let alone one where the running mate and sitting VP is passed over. 

 

Biden isn't the nominee until the delegates vote. The only issue is Ohio. Harris isn't tied to the delegates, Biden could replace her up until the convention. Harris also wouldn't be entitled to it if this was the end of 2nd term.

 

If you think it is a bad idea argue that, but mechanically it would be no different than a primary process where no one secured enough delegates. 

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21 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

Has any candidate won when the incumbent stepped down and we had only 4 months to beat a candidate with a die hard cult following? I don't think so, the math isn't in our favor on this one. And either way it's not realistically happening to entertaining it is pointless.

 

the majority of people that are going to vote for Biden or his replacement are not going to polls because they are fired up to vote for the person with a D next to their name they are going to vote to keep Trump out of the white house.

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50 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

Oh

 

IMG-9048.png

 

Rejoice…?

 

I mean, this may be exactly the boost that Biden needs to capture the youth vote!

 

If you watch the clip (I don't know why one would, but apparently I did), this is misleading. The question seems to be around "would you bang this person" and Trump was one of the photos shown.

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26 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

Biden isn't the nominee until the delegates vote. The only issue is Ohio. Harris isn't tied to the delegates, Biden could replace her up until the convention. Harris also wouldn't be entitled to it if this was the end of 2nd term.

 

If you think it is a bad idea argue that, but mechanically it would be no different than a primary process where no one secured enough delegates. 

Yup, and it could go extremely smoothly if Biden directs his delegates to vote for a specific person before hand and the convention is planned around that person. 

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"NEW: The Biden campaign’s internal polling shows that the President’s support is unchanged following the debate, with Trump leading 46% to Biden’s 45% — virtually identical to its polling in May. 

 

The poll focused on 7 battleground states: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI."

 

Oh yes we're still losing in out internal polls things are going great. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The polling averages have shifted 2% to 3% in Trump's favor post-"debate" - that's not an insignificant amount in this type of electoral environment.

And most natably only at the top of the ticket, congressional dems are holding in the same polls. 

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6 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

And most natably only at the top of the ticket, congressional dems are holding. 

 

Yes, there genuinely appears to be detectable degree of split ticket intentions in the polling data.

 

Now, does that hold up on November 5?  Who the hell knows, but it's at least something to hold on to in an otherwise absolutely bleak environment.

 

I cannot tell you how many times over the last year or so that I wished that Biden had stuck to his intention to be a "transitional figure" and announced that he wouldn't be running for re-election after the 2022 midterms which would've been ample time for the party to figure out its way forward.  

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13 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

"NEW: The Biden campaign’s internal polling shows that the President’s support is unchanged following the debate, with Trump leading 46% to Biden’s 45% — virtually identical to its polling in May. 

 

The poll focused on 7 battleground states: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI."

 

Oh yes we're still losing in out internal polls things are going great. 

 

 

I don't think that's what they're saying :p 

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20 hours ago, stepee said:

I’m watching the movie 48 hours for the first time and where was THIS Joe Biden last week?

 

https://m.youtube.com/clip/Ugkxaqvp4gCQ19Kt5tdpjmkashuzXqXycSVu?si=33G3RC4OPS2nv-y3

 

Yes, you have the click the link cuz doing a clip of a longer clip was the best I could find.

 

Love that police chief and movie

 

the old ABC show Dinosaurs had an amazing election episode.. Mr Ritchfield is a perfect loudmouth Trump style candidate

 

MV5BNTk2MzAzOTE1OF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwNDM3

 

 

The whole episode is great but the debate starting at 17:30 may as well have been Biden v Trump

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1 hour ago, elbobo said:

the majority of people that are going to vote for Biden or his replacement are not going to polls because they are fired up to vote for the person with a D next to their name they are going to vote to keep Trump out of the white house.

 

I agree but this is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Most people feel better going with the devil you know (Biden) over the devil you don't (some new candidate) this late into the race. No Democrat has ever won after a contested convention - not in 1924 with John Davis and not in 1968 with Hubert Humphrey after Robert Kennedy Sr. was assassinated. Maybe Robert Kennedy could have won (it looked like he might) but the actual candidate after Lyndon Johnson stepped aside was Hubert Humphrey and he lost. 

 

So, we really want to go to that well a third time and against Trump of all people? Biden has a litany of accomplishments he can at least hammer home as well as name recognition (good and bad), etc. I just don't see him stepping down and given history, we'd likely lose the election as well. Biden just needs to ramp up the campaigning and advertising these next four months in all the right places and ways and that's what we'll have to rely on.

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1 hour ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

Biden isn't the nominee until the delegates vote. The only issue is Ohio. Harris isn't tied to the delegates, Biden could replace her up until the convention. Harris also wouldn't be entitled to it if this was the end of 2nd term.

 

If you think it is a bad idea argue that, but mechanically it would be no different than a primary process where no one secured enough delegates. 

Theres a substantive difference between losing out in a primary and getting passed over by party elites because of reasons. Especially if as VP you have to be able to take over in the event of the presidents death or resignation. 

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48 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Theres a substantive difference between losing out in a primary and getting passed over by party elites because of reasons. Especially if as VP you have to be able to take over in the event of the presidents death or resignation. 

 

No one is saying she can't run, I would just rather that a jury of 2,000+ delegates make that decision rather than Biden. Especially given that Biden is admitting he screwed us out of a primary by not dropping out earlier. If Biden stuck to being a one term President, there would have been a primary, one Harris would not have survived (and probably wouldn't have even tried). 

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Just now, Jwheel86 said:

 

No one is saying she can't run, I would just rather that a jury of 2,000+ delegates make that decision rather than Biden. Especially given that Biden is admitting he screwed us out of a primary by not dropping out earlier. If Biden stuck to being a one term President, there would have been a primary, one Harris would not have survived a primary (and probably wouldn't have even tried). 

You’re still not getting it

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1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

You’re still not getting it

 

2,000 county level rando nobody delegates going to Chicago, on what they thought was going to just be a fun vacation, are not party elite. 

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I like how the dems are losing their shit over a debate like any of this shit has any meaning anymore. Hey you remember when Trump had a grab 'em by the pussy clip leaked and they just made t-shirts out of it? Stop pretending to give a shit about decorum or debates (the job isn't even debating) or anything. Just treat it like it is: our shitty little olympics where we want the gold and nothing else matters.

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9 hours ago, legend said:

 

If you watch the clip (I don't know why one would, but apparently I did), this is misleading. The question seems to be around "would you bang this person" and Trump was one of the photos shown.


Are… are you saying she blew this endorsement?

:]

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Some polls coming out showing a slight 'lead' for Trump, but some polls also showing no change, and one showing Biden with a lead:

WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM

The survey also found that a "47 percent plurality of Democrats" said Biden should be replaced as the candidate.

 

But in reality, none of the polls really show 'leads' or 'deficits' outside of the margin of error, so the situation essentially remains the same as it was before.

 

This could change, as it sometimes takes a little time for an event's effects on public opinion to show up in polls--but it might not. (And that assumes you actually trust the polls--I, for one, would be very happy if polling is now officially a defunct science whose methods have stopped working and all the pollsters are underestimating Biden's support by 20 points)

 

Either way, I think it's possible the media outcry will actually do more damage to Biden than the actual debate.  Or maybe, for once, we'll actually benefit from the fact that people are using their meta and twitter/X feeds as their primary news source and don't pay attention to legacy news media.  So far the only beneficiary has been Trump and other right-wing authoritarians banking on the fact that people don't know what's actually happening in the world around them and how bigly they're being screwed.  

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2 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said:

I mean, we've all said it, how many real undecideds are out there? Why would anything move the needle?

 

Despite all reason, apparently a non-trivial number!

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Question as a foreigner:

In Canada, we have nationwide polls.  However, most of the discussion focuses on the modelling around the seats, and what it takes to get a majority in parliament.

 

However, I mostly just see national polling discussed here.  Isn't that mostly irrelevant?  Isn't what matters how the state-by-state voting turns into electoral college delegates?  (i.e. What really matters is the swing states -- and for Biden specifically WI, MI and PA?  -- and potentially GA?)

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