Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead

[DPCyric]

2 hours ago, S3xB0t said:

I love the hype, but please let’s not get too excited. I’m no statistician but these polls, while trending blue, are still within their margins of error, right? This has turned from a sure Trump win into something of an even contest. I’m waiting for after the convention to see what kind of momentum can be sustained.

 

Trump has lost the popular vote twice now. No one is going to rest easy knowing Harris "has it in the bag". 2016 did happen and even a lot of Republicans don't want that orange turd back in office. 

[Jason]

9 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

and some sort of regulations barring those megacorporations from buying up all the properties.

 

Corporations are not buying up nearly as being of a percentage of the housing supply as people think, and they all say housing is a good investment because they expect indefinite continued undersupply. Also, the Netherlands tried this policy and it didn't do anything to affect the sale price of housing but it did increase rents 4% due to fewer units getting onto the rental market. Corporations aren't buying housing just to keep it empty because, surprise, you don't make money that way!

[Kal-El814]

24 minutes ago, LazyPiranha said:

I’m no economist, but I have no idea how to lower the cost of housing without seriously pissing off anyone who has bought a house in the past four years and possibly financially screwing them over.

This is just the sunk cost fallacy painted over the housing market. There will never be a good time to make housing more broadly affordable from the POV of certain people already bought into it. That is a very real problem but it’s smaller than housing getting further out of reach for most people. 
 

It’s like forgiving student loan debt. Someone’s gonna have made their last payment on Friday only for someone else to have their balance scrubbed away on Monday. I appreciate that is a bitter pill to swallow but again… that’s not a compelling enough reason to not address the issue. 

[Xbob42]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Corporations are not buying up nearly as being of a percentage of the housing supply as people think, and they all say housing is a good investment because they expect indefinite continued undersupply. Also, the Netherlands tried this policy and it didn't do anything to affect the sale price of housing but it did increase rents 4% due to fewer units getting onto the rental market. Corporations aren't buying housing just to keep it empty because, surprise, you don't make money that way!

Who said they were buying it to keep them empty? They're specifically buying it to price out the poors and rent gouge those who can afford it.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The housing plan:

 

 

[Kal-El814]

Just now, Jason said:

 

Corporations are not buying up nearly as being of a percentage of the housing supply as people think, and they all say housing is a good investment because they expect indefinite continued undersupply. Also, the Netherlands tried this policy and it didn't do anything to affect the sale price of housing but it did increase rents 4% due to fewer units getting onto the rental market.

The rent side of things is a huge fucking problem. The condo we bought in 2009 and refi’d twice had a mortgage payment of about 900 a month when we left it. We sold it to a guy who intended to live there when we moved in 2019. We caught up recently and he felt bad that he ended up renting it out… but he’s getting $3500 a month in rent for a 900 sq ft condo… which is more than the mortgage on our whole ass house. Not everywhere is city adjacent like Somerville MA is but that shit is absolutely insane. 

[sblfilms]

8 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

Price fixing is the bigger issue, which Harris has said she wants to address. Anecdotally where I live there have been a huge amount of new apartments and housing communities built, but a lot are owned by just a couple firms. Ergo adding housing hasn't helped to alleviate pricing in central Florida for a long time now, because of price collusion.

Housing units in the aggregate are not really keeping up with population increases, so more housing in an absolute sense doesn’t really matter when it comes to market rates.

 

To reverse the relative increases in prices, you need substantially more new housing units than have been built each year the last 40 something years. Many, many more.

 

Another way to conceptualize this is think about a recent product we saw substantial shortages for, nVidia based GPUs. The demand far outstripped the supply for an extended period of time, so would more people have been able to buy the cards if the government gave a large subset of people $400 towards the purchase? No, you wouldn’t sell more, you just have even more potential buyers for the same stock which pushes prices higher.

 

The solution to get more people to be able to afford them is just makes many more cards.

[PaladinSolo]

Basically give that 25k to the builder after every new home of say at least 1500 square feet is built and passes inspection. Could also do something similar for multi family homes/apartments. 

[Reputator]

 

This is precious. 

[Xbob42]

9 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Basically give that 25k to the builder after every new home of say at least 1500 square feet is built and passes inspection. Could also do something similar for multi family homes/apartments. 

Maybe if we could get some builders that don't take 40 years to finish construction. Jesus Christ, I feel like construction around here takes ages.

[S3xB0t]

 

7 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

Maybe if we could get some builders that don't take 40 years to finish construction. Jesus Christ, I feel like construction around here takes ages.

For anything except the shittiest tract housing it takes forever here, too. From what I’ve heard it’s due to an enormous shortage of skilled trade and general construction labor. If pharmacist didn’t work out I was headed to trade school to be an electrician. They can pull in nearly the same salary with full time work, albeit at a much higher physical toll. 
 

Last year two 3-over-1 apartment buildings of similar sizes started going up down the street from my house. The first one was built out of precast concrete panels and is already open and mostly occupied. The other one is a stick build and it’s *still* under construction. It’ll be interesting to see how they age (and what the Google Reviews look like after the first round of leases are up).

 

There’s a lot of discussion around this housing policy. We could have our own housing (and transportation!) thread. Two of my favorite topics that America habitually gets entirely wrong.

[GeneticBlueprint]

29 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The housing plan:

 

 

At a minimum item 3 needs a condition of item 1 being complete or well on its way to being complete before it’s implemented. 

[PaladinSolo]

11 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

Maybe if we could get some builders that don't take 40 years to finish construction. Jesus Christ, I feel like construction around here takes ages.

Part of it is builders got destroyed in 08' when they got screwed when people could no longer pay for houses they'd built and no one was buying new ones so a lot of the labor force moved elsewhere. So making building homes much more profitable while affordable should be the goal, even if we subsidize their construction. 

 

I've talked to guys that were building homes in the 80s where they had like 4-5 crews building a neighborhood in a summer. That's completely unheard of today. 

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Part of it is builders got destroyed in 08' when they got screwed when people could no longer pay for houses they'd built and no one was buying new ones so a lot of the labor force moved elsewhere. So making building homes much more profitable while affordable should be the goal, even if we subsidize their construction. 

 

In most places it's solely that it's illegal to build. Austin made it easier to build and now landlords are proactively offering tenants multiple hundred dollar rent reductions to try to keep them from moving for a better deal. 

 

Los Angeles City had something to streamline 100% inclusionary and they immediately started gutting it because it saw tons of applications. They were expecting the inclusionary requirement by itself would be a sufficient poison pill to keep it from getting anything built. 

[mclumber1]

I'd like to see more factory assembly line built houses and 3d printed houses.  Both offer the promise of reducing costs and build times.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, mclumber1 said:

I'd like to see more factory assembly line built houses and 3d printed houses.  Both offer the promise of reducing costs and build times.

 

That's not what's driving costs or build times. It's all getting dicked around on approvals, inspections, etc by cities. 

[sblfilms]

7 minutes ago, S3xB0t said:

I was headed to trade school to be an electrician. They can pull in nearly the same salary with full time work, albeit at a much higher physical toll

Generally if you can make it 8ish years and get the hours for a master’s license, you’ll never do any physical work and will make boatloads of money. Master electricians licenses really are money printers. A lot of journeymen will “rent” your license so they can pull permits and you don’t have to do anything 😂

[mclumber1]

23 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

That's not what's driving costs or build times. It's all getting dicked around on approvals, inspections, etc by cities. 

 

NIMBY liberals block new housing and NIMBY conservatives block wind turbines

 

Simple as

[marioandsonic]

Sorry for breaking the rule but this is too funny

 

 

[Reputator]

14 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

Sorry for breaking the rule but this is too funny

 

 

 

It's like he's campaigning for Harris.

 

I really have to wonder if Frank Luntz is right here and Trump actually wants to lose. Although he does say no SANE person would campaign the way he's campaigning, and that's probably an exclusionary qualifier in this case.

 

 

[Xbob42]

7 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

It's like he's campaigning for Harris.

 

I really have to wonder if Frank Luntz is right here and Trump actually wants to lose. Although he does say no SANE person would campaign the way he's campaigning, and that's probably an exclusionary qualifier in this case.

Trump hates losing, but he seems to hate the idea of prison (or any accountability at all) far more than that. I don't think is happening at all, but in my head it's not outside the realm of possibility... just the far edge of it: I could see him seeing the writing on the wall about his chances no longer being "pretty much guaranteed" and the assassination attempt and polling freaking him the hell out in different ways, along with the added stress of what might happen to him if he just plain loses with no plan B. So I could see him trying to get some sort of backdoor "if I throw this for you, will you leave me alone?" sort of deal.

 

Of course, he likes his ring kissed, not the other way around, I cannot fathom him groveling even with the intense stressors currently weighing on him.

[mclumber1]

4 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

Trump hates losing, but he seems to hate the idea of prison (or any accountability at all) far more than that. I don't think is happening at all, but in my head it's not outside the realm of possibility... just the far edge of it: I could see him seeing the writing on the wall about his chances no longer being "pretty much guaranteed" and the assassination attempt and polling freaking him the hell out in different ways, along with the added stress of what might happen to him if he just plain loses with no plan B. So I could see him trying to get some sort of backdoor "if I throw this for you, will you leave me alone?" sort of deal.

 

Of course, he likes his ring kissed, not the other way around, I cannot fathom him groveling even with the intense stressors currently weighing on him.

 

He's a flight risk if he loses.  I say let him run (away from America).

[Reputator]

5 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

Trump hates losing, but he seems to hate the idea of prison (or any accountability at all) far more than that. I don't think is happening at all, but in my head it's not outside the realm of possibility... just the far edge of it: I could see him seeing the writing on the wall about his chances no longer being "pretty much guaranteed" and the assassination attempt and polling freaking him the hell out in different ways, along with the added stress of what might happen to him if he just plain loses with no plan B. So I could see him trying to get some sort of backdoor "if I throw this for you, will you leave me alone?" sort of deal.

 

Of course, he likes his ring kissed, not the other way around, I cannot fathom him groveling even with the intense stressors currently weighing on him.

 

Oh he has a plan B, he even told Elon Musk publicly about it. He wants to escape to Venezuela if he loses.

[Xbob42]

12 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

 

Okay, just noticed the video was only a minute long so I actually watched it. "The two biggest issues are immigration and inflation" these fuckin' one-note schlubs and their eternal "concern" about immigration.

[finaljedi]

3 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

Oh he has a plan B, he even told Elon Musk publicly about it. He wants to escape to Venezuela if he loses.

 

Let him, seize his stateside assets and let them drain his family dry.  Barron will need to apply for jobs.

[Air_Delivery]

 

Weird getting under these fuckin weirdos skin is my highlight of the election cycle. 

[5timechamp]

55 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

Sorry for breaking the rule but this is too funny

 

 

 

Its funny watching the echo chambers.. here he is mumbling stumbling clown fighting for relevance… but in the GOP tunnels they all show him being “strong and assertive” as he hits the “Libs” with hard truths they cant handle..

  Its a fun dichotomy cause any online post or conversation about anything from sports, movies, history etc always has someone randomly pulling in the it sucks now because  “Dei/Woke” complaint… and sure enough if you check profiles it has a bunch of shit covered in the American Flag and of course a picture of Trump after he got shot..

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

You could do worse for plans to fix the problem.  It’s not really realistic, but at least it addresses both the demand and supply-side causes of the shortage.  And it’s not a bad idea to start with a plan that’s unlikely to ever happen in practice and then see what you can get done.  Start the bidding high and see what you get bargained down to; no sense in starting unnecessarily low and then getting bargained down further.

 

But the true source of the disease, IMO, is way deeper than incidental issues of undersupply/excessive demand.  The real problem is that—simplifying a lot here—the economy is simply too financialized, and as such compels too many people to get ahead by using housing as an investment vehicle.  Housing should be for *living* in, and people should be getting ahead either as a function of their job, or by successful investment in means of production, *not* real estate.

 

But that’s not something that can be fixed by one administration, nor solely via regulation at the federal level.  So I’ll just be happy with whatever incremental reform we get that pushes us in the right direction.

[sblfilms]

29 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

The real problem is that—simplifying a lot here—the economy is simply too financialized, and as such compels too many people to get ahead by using housing as an investment vehicle.

If housing wasn’t such an excellent long term investment, because prices didn’t go up at such insane rates, people would treat is as an investment vehicle…so you are back to fixing the issue by building way more units  

[Xbob42]

Or all property could be owned by the federal government, and everyone gets to just live in a house or apartment, and plenty of people work for the federal government building these homes and doing maintenance just like with roads, and if you wanted, you could rent out a much fancier home from the government that isn't "free," but it something to aspire to if you want to live above the riffraff.

 

But that's sci-fi talk of a society we'll never live in, where we'd take pride in having the basics covered for all of our citizens while still allowing plenty of luxuries above that to be things they could buy just like now, but with a much lower level of daily stress!

[Air_Delivery]

2 hours ago, Xbob42 said:

Trump hates losing, but he seems to hate the idea of prison (or any accountability at all) far more than that. I don't think is happening at all, but in my head it's not outside the realm of possibility... just the far edge of it: I could see him seeing the writing on the wall about his chances no longer being "pretty much guaranteed" and the assassination attempt and polling freaking him the hell out in different ways, along with the added stress of what might happen to him if he just plain loses with no plan B. So I could see him trying to get some sort of backdoor "if I throw this for you, will you leave me alone?" sort of deal.

 

Of course, he likes his ring kissed, not the other way around, I cannot fathom him groveling even with the intense stressors currently weighing on him.

 

I think its what happens to people sometimes when they get old. My grandpa kinda became a parody of himself and lost all ability to detect subtly or nuance.

He wants to win, he is just is a degraded brain's impression of what Trump used to be like. 

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

If housing wasn’t such an excellent long term investment, because prices didn’t go up at such insane rates, people would treat is as an investment vehicle…so you are back to fixing the issue by building way more units  

Yes, but if the primary way the economy generates profits is by attaching rent charges to existing housing stock and using financial leverage to raise those charges as much as possible, building more units isn't going to dig you out of the hole in the long run--you're just going to get a greater degree of leveraging, to finance even higher prices, which will keep the 'housing qua investment vehicle' dynamic going.  At least until the mortgage service absorbs so much of both the rental value of the real estate and the homebuyers' income that you go into debt deflation.

 

That's part of the reason why you can't really solve the problem until the economy (and the banking system that drives it) is centered around tangible capital formation in the industrial sector rather than debt-financed gains in the finance, insurance and real estate sector, and the dominant mode of profit generation is the generation and augmentation of new means of production. (rather than creating leverage for asset-price inflation out of existing means of production)

 

But, like I said, that requires a lot of reform, above and beyond addressing just the matter of housing supply vs housing demand.  And it's the kind of reform that can be tough to do in a big, messy democracy, I think, and especially tough to do in a big messy democracy that is also the owner of the world reserve currency.  But, hey, the Germans sorta-kinda managed to do it, so it's not impossible, either.

[Jason]

JD Vance blames higher crime rates on 'wave of Irish immigration' in resurfaced clip - Irish Star

WWW.IRISHSTAR.COM

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JD Vance made a shocking comment about immigrants in the clip from 2021

 

[Jason]

Fly lands on Trump's face during press event, echoing Mike Pence's viral 2020 debate moment

WWW.USATODAY.COM

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Social media was abuzz after the fly landed on Donald Trump's face Thursday, comparing it to a viral moment in the 2020 vice presidential debate.

[Air_Delivery]

41 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

JD Vance blames higher crime rates on 'wave of Irish immigration' in resurfaced clip - Irish Star

WWW.IRISHSTAR.COM

---

JD Vance made a shocking comment about immigrants in the clip from 2021

 

The man is digging up the oldies but goodies.