Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead

[SaysWho?]

Mr. Beat agrees with Allen Lichtman that Harris will win:

 

 

 

He's got a huge following due to his videos on U.S. presidents and U.S. political history. Both predicted a Trump win in 2016.

 

KEEP UNDERDOGGING AND PRETEND THAT THEY'RE ON METH FOR NOW

[Comet]

11 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I guess they are going full-out on "dirty, sick, criminal immigrants" message. 

GOP-ran Ohio must really fucking suck 

[CastletonSnob]

Should we be surprised by how well Harris did in the debate?

She has a background as a prosecutor. She knows how to deal with bullies.

[5timechamp]

5 hours ago, Fizzzzle said:

 

The good news is, as of right now, both misery index and real GDP per capita are both improved from last year. So unless we have a massive recession in the next 2 months, Harris' odds of losing are pretty low, as long as the model holds true.

 

Thats fine and all but for Joe “commoner” the economy is still horrible rent, housing and most importantly groceries are vastly too expensive is their existing narrative and they lay that at the feet of the Dems..

    Even outside of that things look healthy for Kamala in a normal election… it remains to be seen how many Kamala votes get purged and if the MAGAts manage to steal enough state electoral votes when it comes time to vote… pucker factor is still high, though the candidate herself and the Dems have done nearly everything in their power correctly to get this done..

[Best]

10 minutes ago, CastletonSnob said:

Should we be surprised by how well Harris did in the debate?

She has a background as a prosecutor. She knows how to deal with bullies.

 

She has improved her public speaking. Before she came off really strange. She is getting great coaching. 

[Fizzzzle]

22 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

This breakdown was incredibly useful and informative. I think relying on those two factors combined are pretty strong indicators of how people feel about their lives under a president in this country even if they don't know it's those two factors affecting them. If we are on the upswing with both factors, that makes me feel a bit better about Harris' chances this November, despite this being a weird election that could also easily fall into the exceptional cases you pointed out.

I think I would have agreed if Harris didn't slide in so seamlessly. I was of the opinion that it was too late for Biden to pull out.

 

In case you want the full breakdown:

Spoiler

Green = Misery index worse but GDP better

Red = Both misery index and GDP worse

Blue =Both misery index and GDP better

Underlined = The years where the model was wrong

 

1916: Incumbent party (Wilson) won. Note - one of the tightest elections in US history. Came down to a couple thousand votes in CA and MN.

1920: Incumbent party (Cox) lost

1924: Incumbent party (Coolidge) won

1928: Incumbent party (Hoover) won - Note - Misery index was only up by less than half a point and GDP was only down $79

1932: Incumbent party (Hoover) lost

1936: Incumbent party (Roosevelt) won

1940: Incumbent party (Roosevelt) still won. Note - no fucking shot FDR loses in 1940 anyway, he was way too popular

1944: Incumbent party (Roosevelt) won

1948: Incumbent party (Truman) won

1952: Incumbent party (Stevenson) lost - Note - no fucking shot Eisenhower was losing an election in 50's America, regardless of the economy.

1956: Incumbent party (Eisenhower) still won. Note - see above.

1960: Incumbent party (Nixon) lost. Note - Kennedy only won the popular vote by about 100k votes.

1964: Incumbent party (Johnson) won

1968: Incumbent party (Humphrey) lost. Note - The Dems were in total disarray after LBJ dropped out and then the presumptive nominee (RFK) was assassinated 2 months later

1972: Incumbent party (Nixon) won

1976: Incumbent party (Ford) lost. Note - Watergate.

1980: Incumbent party (Carter) lost

1984: Incumbent party (Reagan) won

1988: Incumbent party (Bush) won

1992: Incumbent party (Bush) lost. Note - Ross Perot won almost 20% of the popular vote. Hard to say with certainty the effect that had, if any.

1996: Incumbent party (Clinton) won

2000: Incumbent party (Gore) lost. Note - one of the tightest elections in US history. Came down to hundreds of votes in FL.

2004: Incumbent party (Bush) won

2008: Incumbent party (McCain) lost

2012: Incumbent party (Obama) won

2016: Incumbent party (Clinton) lost. Note - Clinton won the popular vote handily and the election came down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states

2020: Incumbent party (Trump) lost

2024: Incumbent party (Harris) tentatively has an upturned economy. Misery index is down and real GDP per capita is up

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Harris should accept the CBS/Univision/WSJ debate offer and if the other side declines, request that it become a town hall.

 

I know the CNN article says that the campaign doesn't "trust" traditional media, but they ignore it at their own peril.

[GeneticBlueprint]

2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Harris should accept the CBS/Univision/WSJ debate offer and if the other side declines, request that it become a town hall.

 

I know the CNN article says that the campaign doesn't "trust" traditional media, but they ignore it at their own peril.

 

Take invites from all the (non-insane) media

[CitizenVectron]

25 minutes ago, Comet said:

GOP-ran Ohio must really fucking suck 

 

Conservative governments always make people's lives worse, and that is why they increasingly need larger and more extreme scapegoats to keep people's attention occupied.

[Keyser_Soze]

49 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Mr. Beat agrees with Allen Lichtman that Harris will win:

 

Trying to get those hits off of people who misspell Mr. Beast

[CitizenVectron]

Cool!

 

 

I'm sure the media will give this as much national attention as Biden being slower at speaking.

[outsida]

1 hour ago, SaysWho? said:

 

I paid $2.69 yesterday.

 

Nice.

 

Thats equivalent to paying $2.20 in 2020

[MarSolo]

9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Cool!

 

 

I'm sure the media will give this as much national attention as Biden being slower at speaking.

It’s insane the shit that isn’t getting covered by the media: 

1. Trump bringing a 9/11 truther as his date to the 9/11 Memorial.
2. Trump desecrating an American flag with his signature.
3. Trump possibly being in a sexual relationship with Laura Loomer while Melania is no where to be seen.
4. Literally anything about the assassination attempt; medical records, etc.

But remember, Hillary collapsed from exhaustion due to having the flu at the 9/11 Memorial in 2016 and it turned into a month long story about her physical fitness for the job.

[ort]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I guess they are going full-out on "dirty, sick, criminal immigrants" message. 

 

I've read multiple reports that crime rates in Springfield are not up and that there was no noticeable increase in crime due to the Haitian immigrants.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 hour ago, SaysWho? said:

PRETEND THAT THEY'RE ON METH

They are tho

[CastletonSnob]

Just saw a poll that only had Trump up by 10 points in INDIANA.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 hour ago, Comet said:

GOP-ran Ohio must really fucking suck 

Can confirm. My home town went to Trump by 50ish points and there’s no or virtually no immigrants or people of color and it’s a fucking dump, and the last bit of economic vitality died during the Trump admin

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Just now, CastletonSnob said:

Just saw a poll that only had Trump up by 10 points in INDIANA.

Ignore polls

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

14 minutes ago, ort said:

 

I've read multiple reports that crime rates in Springfield are not up and that there was no noticeable increase in crime due to the Haitian immigrants.

when Republicans are in power they always say crime is down, and when a Democrat are in power they always say crime is up. It never matters if it true or not. Some Republicans when fact checked on it will just say “well it feels true that there is more crime”.
 

an old old tactic they’ve been using to demonize non-cis hetero whites for decades.  

[ort]

While I doubt it's true, there are now rumors that Trump and Loomer are having an affair... Fuck Trump, I hope it becomes a thing if it's true or not. Vance can fuck couches and Trump can fuck insane racist face-paralyzed internet trolls.

 

[Massdriver]

We should get some announcements regarding town halls and interviews next week. 

[CitizenVectron]

37 minutes ago, ort said:

 

I've read multiple reports that crime rates in Springfield are not up and that there was no noticeable increase in crime due to the Haitian immigrants.

 

It's pretty well understood that first generation immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than the general population.

[Comet]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Conservative governments always make people's lives worse, and that is why they increasingly need larger and more extreme scapegoats to keep people's attention occupied.

I live in Texas so I know how bad it is. But if these asshats are going to use a republican state as an example of how bad things are just remind them who’s in charge of the state. 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Also re: looker and trump. This is what sleeping your way to the top looks like

[Jason]

1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Also re: looker and trump. This is what sleeping your way to the top looks like

 

what a typo

[SuperSpreader]

I'm worried this stupid Haitian immigrant thing works for Trump

[finaljedi]

Got a little demonstration of Cause

 

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I guess they are going full-out on "dirty, sick, criminal immigrants" message. 

 

And effect

 

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Cool!

 

 

I'm sure the media will give this as much national attention as Biden being slower at speaking.

 

[Uaarkson]

What a great way to teach those nasty Haitians a lesson. By *checks notes* calling in bomb threats to an elementary school.

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

Well, see the Republicans are right. There is more crime in Springfield Ohio because of the Haitian immigrants. Check mate libs

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Ignore polls

IMO they will continue to generally show a dead heat.

 

And that portends a huge problem that might very well survive Trump, whether he wins again or not.  It kind of implies a darker interpretation of Kamala's "we're not going back" mantra.

[CitizenVectron]

49 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said:

I'm worried this stupid Haitian immigrant thing works for Trump

 

Perhaps. I hope the people who already foam at the mouth about immigrants are voting for Trump already. He needs to keep in mind there are 500,000 voting members of the Haitian community in Florida. I don't think Harris will win Florida, but no need to make enemies of entire ethnicities. 

[Greatoneshere]

30 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

And that portends a huge problem that might very well survive Trump, whether he wins again or not.  It kind of implies a darker interpretation of Kamala's "we're not going back" mantra.

 

I don't know that this is going to happen because Trump is a unique cult of personality - who do you see filling in the void? Republicans have nothing without that cult of personality in terms of followers/voters. Trump is highly unique and not replicable.

[cusideabelincoln]

3 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

I don't know that this is going to happen because Trump is a unique cult of personality - who do you see filling in the void? Republicans have nothing without that cult of personality in terms of followers/voters. Trump is highly unique and not replicable.

 

There's plenty of fostered hate for Demoncrats out there to fill their hearts without Trump.

[finaljedi]

3 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

I don't know that this is going to happen because Trump is a unique cult of personality - who do you see filling in the void? Republicans have nothing without that cult of personality in terms of followers/voters. Trump is highly unique and not replicable.

 

It is really fortunate that everyone who has tried to be the next Trump acts like an alien pod person.

[Greatoneshere]

Just now, finaljedi said:

 

It is really fortunate that everyone who has tried to be the next Trump acts like an alien pod person.

 

Exactly, no one has come to fill the void, which is why they're still trotting out almost 80-year old Trump instead. I mean Josh Hawley? DeSantis? Gaetz? MTG? Boebert? JD Vance? There's no one, which is why 2028 we might get an actual Democratic primary where policy matters again (though Harris will run as an incumbent so probably not until 2032 sadly to get real policy discussions). So we're waiting 8 years, but I'll take avoiding fascism for now.