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Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead

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GeneticBlueprint

GeneticBlueprint

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Posted
44 minutes ago, 5timechamp said:

Trump rally in Tucson had 550 folks in attendance.. 

Good job Donald tell them about keeping mexican rapists out of the country and they will vote to keep rapists out of the White House

 

meanwhile Vance keeps dropping gems:

 

”if immigration was the path to prosperity, then America would be the most prosperous country in the world."

 

 


Please please tell me that’s not a real quote

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Xbob42

Xbob42

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6 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:


Please please tell me that’s not a real quote

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/12/vance-immigration-prosperity/

 

Quote

“If the path to prosperity was flooding your nation with low-wage immigrants,” Vance replied, “then Springfield, Ohio, would be the most prosperous country — the most prosperous city in the world. America would be the most prosperous country in the world, because Kamala Harris has flooded the country with 25 million illegal aliens.”

 

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Jason

Jason

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2 hours ago, Ricofoley said:

A lot of people on Bluesky are convinced that Loomer and Trump are fucking

 

2 hours ago, Xbob42 said:

Can you imagine his hot, moist ketchup breath all over your face as he has a quivering orgasm before he even gets his pants off?

 

2 hours ago, Kal-El814 said:

Kenan Thompson Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

 

1 hour ago, marioandsonic said:

 

spacer.png

 

I hate you so much right now 

 

 

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Fizzzzle

Fizzzzle

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I heard someone claim that if you compare the misery index (inflation + unemployment) from the election year to the previous year, as well as the real per capita GDP from the election year, the overwhelming trend is that if both improved, the incumbent party always wins. If the opposite is true, the incumbent party always loses.

 

I decided to test that out. I could only find data for all of those things going back to the 1916 election, but here's what I found:

 

When the misery index improved (went down) and the real GDP per capita went up compared to the previous year, the incumbent party wins 79% of the time. The only exceptions:

 - 1952 with Eisenhower (Eisenhower was not in any world going to lose in 1952, no matter what the economy looked like)

 - 1976 with Ford (watergate/pardoning Nixon, plus still a pretty tight election despite that)

 - 1992 with Bush (Perot won almost 20% of the popular vote as a third party, we still don't really know the effect that had)

 

So in all 3 exceptions, there were pretty crazy circumstances

 

When the misery index gets worse (goes up) and the real GDP per capita went down compared to the previous year, the incumbent party loses 83% of the time, with the only exception being 1928. And the economy shrunk by such a small amount (misery index went up by less than half a point and GDP per capita went down by $79 that it honestly probably wasn't even noticed.

 

In cases where the economy is split (misery index gets worse but real GDP per capita gets better), which has happened 7 times within the data set (1916, 1940, 1956, 1960, 1968, 2000, and 2016), the incumbent party won the first 3 times, but has lost the last 4. Those also tend to be the most contentious elections.

 

 

 

The good news is, as of right now, both misery index and real GDP per capita are both improved from last year. So unless we have a massive recession in the next 2 months, Harris' odds of losing are pretty low, as long as the model holds true.

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Greatoneshere

Greatoneshere

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3 hours ago, Fizzzzle said:

The good news is, as of right now, both misery index and real GDP per capita are both improved from last year. So unless we have a massive recession in the next 2 months, Harris' odds of losing are pretty low, as long as the model holds true.

 

This breakdown was incredibly useful and informative. I think relying on those two factors combined are pretty strong indicators of how people feel about their lives under a president in this country even if they don't know it's those two factors affecting them. If we are on the upswing with both factors, that makes me feel a bit better about Harris' chances this November, despite this being a weird election that could also easily fall into the exceptional cases you pointed out.

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MarSolo

MarSolo

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441129262_454168250523713_78120139773038

Christopher Colt (@personality_of_colt) on Threads

WWW.THREADS.NET
It would be bad enough for Donald Trump to be seen with a lunatic conspiracy nut like Laura Loomer at any time, but to bring a 9/11 truther to a memorial for the victims of that...

 

459723753_528288356555002_25356751146423

Dean Obeidallah (@deanobeidallah) on Threads

WWW.THREADS.NET
Here is a real photo of Trump and Loomer together. They are a couple. The corporate media is literally missing a huge story right in front of them.

 

Of course the media is dropping the ball, that’s nothing new.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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Posted
23 minutes ago, MarSolo said:

I just saw a news report of gas falling under $3 per gallon next month, so that’s in her favor.

 

I paid $2.69 yesterday.

 

Also, this is a tossup, and I think if you're wondering if the Harris campaign is confident, they're as "underdog" as @Commissar SFLUFAN is telling people to act:

 

gettyimages-2170842739.jpg?c=16x9&q=w_80

How Harris aims to keep drawing eyeballs as the hard campaigning begins | CNN Politics

WWW.CNN.COM
At a leadership retreat for top aides in Wilmington last week, Jen O’Malley Dillon – the campaign chair hired by Joe Biden and retained by Kamala Harris – ticked through the battleground states and warned them: the vice president still did not have any one sure path to 270 electoral votes.
Quote

Pennsylvania looks rough, though very possible, by their internal numbers before the debate. North Carolina, disappointing Democrats every election for the last 15 years, is feeling better to them this time around than Arizona, which Biden narrowly won four years ago. Nevada and Georgia both seem possible, though depending on the poll, can take a lot of squinting. Michigan and Wisconsin are looking like the best of the bunch for Harris, according to the campaign’s internal numbers.

 

As pumped as Harris aides are about her debate performance earlier this week, they don’t think it changed any of that.

That makes for a lot of potential paths to victory based on the current and projected internal data, O’Malley Dillon told them last week, but multiple top aides on the Harris campaign told CNN they fear that if the election were held next Tuesday instead of eight Tuesdays from now, Trump still would be in a good position to win.

 

Quote

But that is not the feeling in Harris campaign headquarters, where many conversations focus on the 5-6% of voters still showing up undecided in battleground states, the set opinions those voters have of Trump and the continuing interest they tend to say they have in learning more about Harris. Top aides tend to talk these days about “eyeballs” and “moments,” and however many different plays they can come up with. They will keep having Harris at big rallies, but slip smaller events in between, building out the affinity groups and leaning into targeted appeals like playing up the endorsement from former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney. Harris’ appearance with the National Association of Black Journalists next week, for example, scheduled for Philadelphia on National Voter Registration Day, was a very orchestrated choice.

 

An important quote:

 

Quote

“There’s a quiet confidence and security in what we’re doing and the mission, but no one thinks we have this in the bag,” said a Harris campaign aide. “It’s going to be a grind until Election Day, and after.”

 

Quote

Harris advisers are spending their days cutting campaign ads from the debate and poring through data that they believe may show she got an important sliver of a bump. An internal summary of the campaign’s “dial groups” measuring immediate reactions, which was described to CNN, says that Harris’ best rated moment was when she spoke about abortion and Trump’s worst rated moment was when he cited a fake story about immigrants eating pets.

 

 

 

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