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Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead


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32 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Regarding Trump slobbering over Musk's union-busting in last night's "interview":

 

 

OLOLOLOLOLOLO @ Sean O'Brien

It doesn’t really directly affect me anymore, but I’m glad I sport the UAW logo on my car vs the Teamsters (my dad is a GM electrician). At least Fain knows what side is going to give a shit about workers.

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From the "Republicans for Harris" Zoom call:

 

Quote

Please look at what President Richard Nixon did 50 years ago and look at what President Biden did just less than a month ago, clearly under very different circumstances, but in the end they did the same thing: they put our country first! They put the United States first. They set aside their own personal political interests and did the right thing!

 

:rofl:

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5 hours ago, Jason said:

lmao why didn't they think of this sooner :silly:

 

THEHILL.COM

px-captcha

 

 

WWW.HUFFPOST.COM

Republicans have reportedly been pleading with Trump to stay on message — but his campaign just can't seem to help itself.

 

:pikachu:

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I’ll let them have this delusion for now if they actually do vote for Kamala.
 

… but fuck if that isn’t detached from reality. lol Resigning in disgrace to avoid prosecution and get pardoned. Not the same thing as choosing not to seek a second term. Why are Republicans so dumb?? 

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The Trump campaign booked the smaller of two venues at the same complex in downtown Asheville for Wednesday's rally. The Thomas Wolfe Auditorium has a capacity of just 2,431 people, while a larger arena next door that is not hosting Trump has a capacity of 7,200.

 

WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM

Trump has a long history of failing to pay cities for rally fees that are not paid in advance.

 

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On 8/12/2024 at 11:21 PM, Reputator said:

 

2 hours ago, Jason said:

 

WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM

Trump has a long history of failing to pay cities for rally fees that are not paid in advance.

 

 

668.jpg

 

North Carolina wasn't even one of the cities in Reputator's post with the tweet breaking down Trump's debts in different cities for different rallies. I guess NC saw the same tweet we did. Is he just not going to campaign in the 13 cities where he currently owes money? Plus I believe that the tweet's data is based on numbers from 2019 given the data was compiled in 2019 by the Centers for Public Integrity . . . I imagine he's racked up more debt since then given he's done two more campaigns in 2020 and 2024.

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1 hour ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

 

668.jpg

 

North Carolina wasn't even one of the cities in Reputator's post with the tweet breaking down Trump's debts in different cities for different rallies. I guess NC saw the same tweet we did. Is he just not going to campaign in the 13 cities where he currently owes money? Plus I believe that the tweet's data is based on numbers from 2019 given the data was compiled in 2019 by the Centers for Public Integrity . . . I imagine he's racked up more debt since then given he's done two more campaigns in 2020 and 2024.

Donald Trump does not believe in paying anyone. Like it's ingrained in him... he'd rather sue you than pay you. This goes all the way back to his time as a real estate developer in NY. It's pathological.

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Cook Political/BSG/GS Strategy polls, July 26-Aug 2

 

Michigan: 🟦 Harris +3

Wisconsin: 🟦 Harris +3

Arizona: 🟦 Harris +2

Pennsylvania: 🟦 Harris +1

North Carolina: 🟦 Harris +1

Georgia: 🟨 TIED

Nevada: 🟥 Trump +3

 

Their May 2024 polls (Biden vs Trump)   

 

Michigan: 🟥 Trump +2

Wisconsin: 🟨 TIED

Arizona: 🟥 Trump +1

Pennsylvania: 🟥 Trump +3

North Carolina: 🟥 Trump +7

Georgia: 🟥 Trump +3

Nevada: 🟥 Trump +9

 

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25 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I simply will not believe a poll where nc is blue. To me that is blowout territory and I refuse to believe it

They're all still being distorted by non-response bias IMO.  Trump voters are currently gloomy and no longer as interested in answering polls as they were before Biden dropped out, while Dems are excited and more likely to respond to a pollster to express their excitement.  That dynamic changes the polls, but it doesn't change the vote count.

 

I think it remains a dead heat, and that the election will be won on razor-thin margins like in 2020.  I'd love to be wrong.

 

Edit: Remember, Trump overperformed every polling average in 2020 save for RCP's numbers in PA:

 

2020 margins in final election polling averages:

Wisconsin: 6.7 Biden (RCP), 8.4 Biden (538)

Michigan: 4.2 Biden (RCP), 7.9 Biden (538)

Pennsylvania: 1.2 Biden (RCP), 4.7 Biden (538)

 

Actual 2020 Margins

Wisconsin - 0.6% Biden - 20,682 votes of 3,241,050 total

Michigan - 2.8% Biden - 154,188 votes of 5,453,892 total

Pennsylvania - 1.2% Biden - 81,660 votes of 6,838,186 total

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Nevada going red while Arizona goes blue is so wild as to be unbelievable.

 

The last governor was a Democrat (Sisolak) and was pretty unpopular by the time he faced reelection in 2022.  And the current GOP governor is fairly popular and hasn't done anything too offensive, and stays under the radar.  

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34 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

They're all still being distorted by non-response bias IMO.  Trump voters are currently gloomy and no longer as interested in answering polls as they were before Biden dropped out, while Dems are excited and more likely to respond to a pollster to express their excitement.  That dynamic changes the polls, but it doesn't change the vote count.

 

I think it remains a dead heat, and that the election will be won on razor-thin margins like in 2020.  I'd love to be wrong.

 

Edit: Remember, Trump overperformed every polling average in 2020 save for RCP's numbers in PA:

 

2020 margins in final election polling averages:

Wisconsin: 6.7 Biden (RCP), 8.4 Biden (538)

Michigan: 4.2 Biden (RCP), 7.9 Biden (538)

Pennsylvania: 1.2 Biden (RCP), 4.7 Biden (538)

 

Actual 2020 Margins

Wisconsin - 0.6% Biden - 20,682 votes of 3,241,050 total

Michigan - 2.8% Biden - 154,188 votes of 5,453,892 total

Pennsylvania - 1.2% Biden - 81,660 votes of 6,838,186 total

 

 

 

Nate cohn (NYT polling guy) commented that partisan response seemed in line with what they expect, on their last poll that had Harris up 4 in WI, MI, and PA. So doesn't seem to be much to back up the non-response from gopers. 

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36 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

Tim Walz being addicted to Dreamcast at some point in his life makes me happy. If he were addicted to Saturn, it'd make me sad.

 

JD Vance was the one kid in his entire school that had an Atari Jaguar.

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21 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

 

It just means he was addicted to the best version of Street Fighter Alpha 2 if that was the case.

 

If you mean Alpha 2 Gold where Goku has two air fireballs he shoots at once then yes

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3 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

 

Hey that was me. Can we downgrade this to 3DO or something?

 

Nope.

 

His only game was Trevor McFur, and he'd constantly get into screaming fights with other kids at lunch.

 

Cry Crying GIF by GIPHY News

 

"It is TOO better than Thunderforce III!!"

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