Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead

[Chairslinger]

33 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

From the same poll:

 

VA Senate:

🔵 Kaine: 53%
🔴 Cao: 36%

 

PA Senate:

🔵 Casey: 50%
🔴 McCormick: 42%

 

 

Feel free to call me needlessly optimistic, but this is why I was not panicking after the debate debacle.

 

To me the constant slight lead for Trump in some swing states wasn't as important as the fact that the polls were mostly static even after all the "hair on fire"'ing(I have a feeling the same will be true after Saturday).

 

I still don't think the polls are accurately showing the presidential race. Ever since 2016 the polls have tended to underestimate Dem performance. Call it the noisy Trump voter vs. The quiet Trump voter that supposedly won him 2016. Yes it is alarming, but do we really think Trump is going to outperform his GOP Senate candidate by 11 points? In a state that Trump won by 1% and then Biden won by 1%? 

 

I am not saying it's a slam dunk case by any means, but Biden taking a "within the margins of error" race into the election along with other results(especially since Dobbs) I simply am not doom and gloom on that.

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

YouGov: WISCONSIN

Trump up 43/38

But Baldwin (D) up 50/43

 

NEVADA Trump up 42/38

But Rosen (D) up 47/40

 

ARIZONA Trump up 44/37

But Gallego (D) up Lake 48/41

 

PENNSYLVANIA Trump up 43/40

But Casey (D) up 50/38

 

MICHIGAN Trump up 42/40

But Slotkin (D) up 49/40

 

I'm hoping these RFK people are just saying they'll vote for him but really come back to Biden, also possible they just don't show up, but hopefully another Trump term deters that and also dem holding the senate with a Trump presidency would be interesting for SCOTUS.  With Trump almost hard capped at ~46% nationally hes beatable

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Little Marco has been informed that he's out of the running.

[Chairslinger]

Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Little Marco has been informed that he's out of the running.

 

He came up just a little short.

[skillzdadirecta]

3 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

 

He came up just a little short.

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

I know there are people out there who do it but I can’t fathom the stupid that is dem senator/other or no president vote

 

like I can’t fathom at all

[Jason]

23 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

 

 

Feel free to call me needlessly optimistic, but this is why I was not panicking after the debate debacle.

 

To me the constant slight lead for Trump in some swing states wasn't as important as the fact that the polls were mostly static even after all the "hair on fire"'ing(I have a feeling the same will be true after Saturday).

 

I still don't think the polls are accurately showing the presidential race. Ever since 2016 the polls have tended to underestimate Dem performance. Call it the noisy Trump voter vs. The quiet Trump voter that supposedly won him 2016. Yes it is alarming, but do we really think Trump is going to outperform his GOP Senate candidate by 11 points? In a state that Trump won by 1% and then Biden won by 1%? 

 

I am not saying it's a slam dunk case by any means, but Biden taking a "within the margins of error" race into the election along with other results(especially since Dobbs) I simply am not doom and gloom on that.

 

 

 

The face value read of these polls seems to be that people are enthusiastic Dem in general but are not happy about having to vote for the very old guy at the top of the ticket and that they may react by just not filling out that part of their ballot.

[GeneticBlueprint]

1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I know there are people out there who do it but I can’t fathom the stupid that is dem senator/other or no president vote

 

like I can’t fathom at all

 

Indeed

 

47 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

Holy shit that PA split on POTUS/Senate. That is just unfathomable to me.

 

[Jason]

1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I know there are people out there who do it but I can’t fathom the stupid that is dem senator/other or no president vote

 

like I can’t fathom at all

 

I mean you had people voting both Biden and Kemp in Georgia in 2020, people are stupid.

[Jason]

Also a reminder of some of the swing state margins in 2020:

 

PA: 80,555

 

WI: 20,682

 

MI: 154,188

 

You don't need a lot of these braindead D Senate/no vote president people to swing the election.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Burgum has been informed that he's out, so it's going to be Vance.

Wow.  What a surprise.  Truly a shocking development.  Truly.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Just now, Jason said:

 

I mean you had people voting both Biden and Kemp in Georgia in 2020, people are stupid.

Not only that but Biden/kemp/ossoff/warnock or even one of the dem senators but not the other or some other stupid combination. I can kinda get on board with the idea that at the state level it’s “different” so voting Republican is “acceptable” (it isn’t but whatever) and federally you vote another way but Jesus I can’t fathom the mind of a voter like this

[Jason]

1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Not only that but Biden/kemp/ossoff/warnock or even one of the dem senators but not the other or some other stupid combination. I can kinda get on board with the idea that at the state level it’s “different” so voting Republican is “acceptable” (it isn’t but whatever) and federally you vote another way but Jesus I can’t fathom the mind of a voter like this

 

It all makes sense when you remember that there's a statistically significant amount of people who will literally just vote for whomever happens to be listed first on the ballot.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Youngkin was invited to the convention and his betting market odds have suddenly jumped.

[Chairslinger]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

The face value read of these polls seems to be that people are enthusiastic Dem in general but are not happy about having to vote for the very old guy at the top of the ticket and that they may react by just not filling out that part of their ballot.

 

Alternative read.

 

People are angry at Biden because he is president and he is to blame for everything that happens.

 

The solution to this is a constant, disciplined reminder that the choice isn't between Biden and some great alternative. It is between Biden and Trump. Take your pick.

 

That is why the backstabbing was so self-defeating.  The focus should be on reminding those Undecided 9% All Voters and 19% of Independents how much they dislike Trump.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 minute ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Youngkin was invited to the convention and his betting market odds have suddenly jumped.

Trump going for VA huh

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

It all makes sense when you remember that there's a statistically significant amount of people who will literally just vote for whomever happens to be listed first on the ballot.

I thought many places alternated the ordering of candidates names on the ballot just for that reason?

[mrbiggsly]

So if Trump wins I'm going to have to hope he survives his term so we don't get President Vance.

 

Thanks Obama

[CitizenVectron]

[Greatoneshere]

18 minutes ago, Jason said:

Also a reminder of some of the swing state margins in 2020:

 

PA: 80,555

 

WI: 20,682

 

MI: 154,188

 

You don't need a lot of these braindead D Senate/no vote president people to swing the election.

 

13 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

That is why the backstabbing was so self-defeating.  The focus should be on reminding those Undecided 9% All Voters and 19% of Independents how much they dislike Trump.

 

These are the only numbers that matter in this election. Everything else is just noise. These few people, in these few swing states, will determine this election, just like they did in 2016 and 2020. Same goes for the wild card "someone else" and "don't know/no opinion" voters. Thanks Electoral College. Of course all voters everywhere should go out and vote to make sure their counties/districts go the way they want (even if it might be a given) but at the end of the day, these are all that matter.

 

I still don't know who these "someone else" and "don't know/no opinion" people are. How can you not know by now? Ridiculous.

[Kal-El814]

35 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Little Marco has been informed that he's out of the running.

 

 

[Chairslinger]

7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

She is absolutely right.

 

Anyone who thinks this is "just another election".

 

Anyone who saw the Biden debate thing as a career move.

 

And certainly anyone who has "resigned themselves" to a second Trump term needs to step down or be run out of the party.

 

Sadly Dems are responding to the pressure much like the delusional coping of the GOP during the primary. Where you had candidates on stage knife fighting over 2nd place. Instead of going after Trump they were going after the other guy with 5% of the vote.

 

Any Dems thinking they just "work around" a second Trump term need to get it the fuck together. You can't treat this as just a bad cycle. That is the whole reason Trump is a different kind of candidate! 

[SuperSpreader]

48 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Its kinda like this across the board, dems outperforming the top of the ticket by a large margin.

 

Hopefully this means a stalemate ineffective government for 4yr! Yay red tape!!

[Greatoneshere]

Senior Democratic leadership resigning themselves to a second Trump presidency when there's 3.5 months to go before election day should not be in a position of leadership. 3.5 months is an eternity in the American election cycle. The polls are close, there's plenty of ways to win. Why resign yourself? FFS.

[SuperSpreader]

25 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

The face value read of these polls seems to be that people are enthusiastic Dem in general but are not happy about having to vote for the very old guy at the top of the ticket and that they may react by just not filling out that part of their ballot.

The group that loves to say fuck around and find out wants to fuck around

[mclumber1]

8 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

 

 

She is absolutely right.

 

Anyone who thinks this is "just another election".

 

Anyone who saw the Biden debate thing as a career move.

 

And certainly anyone who has "resigned themselves" to a second Trump term needs to step down or be run out of the party.

 

Sadly Dems are responding to the pressure much like the delusional coping of the GOP during the primary. Where you had candidates on stage knife fighting over 2nd place. Instead of going after Trump they were going after the other guy with 5% of the vote.

 

Any Dems thinking they just "work around" a second Trump term need to get it the fuck together. You can't treat this as just a bad cycle. That is the whole reason Trump is a different kind of candidate! 

 

I agree with Senior Democratic Leadership.  But I also blame them for not imploring Biden to only have 1 term as President.  There was more than enough people who could have convinced Biden to be a caretaker president 3 or more years ago, all while building up a cadre of younger Democrats who could take over the reigns in 2024.  

 

Also Biden.  Blame Biden.  If he loses this election, it's definitely on him, and will go down in the history books as a big of a blunder as allowing RBG to stay on the court until she died. 

[Chairslinger]

Just now, mclumber1 said:

 

I agree with Senior Democratic Leadership.  But I also blame them for not imploring Biden to only have 1 term as President.  There was more than enough people who could have convinced Biden to be a caretaker president 3 or more years ago, all while building up a cadre of younger Democrats who could take over the reigns in 2024.  

 

Also Biden.  Blame Biden.  If he loses this election, it's definitely on him, and will go down in the history books as a big of a blunder as allowing RBG to stay on the court until she died. 

 

 

Counterpoint: America likes two term presidents. A lot.

 

Other than Trump, we haven't had a true one term president since Carter half a century ago.

 

Easy to backseat quarterback now, but willingly giving up the incumpancy advantage because of how Biden might look in 3 years is a bit like giving up going first in tic tac toe.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Just now, Chairslinger said:

 

 

Counterpoint: America likes two term presidents. A lot.

 

Other than Trump, we haven't had a true one term president since Carter half a century ago.

 

Easy to backseat quarterback now, but willingly giving up the incumpancy advantage because of how Biden might look in 3 years is a bit like giving up going first in tic tac toe.

 

What incumbency advantage?!?

[Jason]

34 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I thought many places alternated the ordering of candidates names on the ballot just for that reason?

 

There's attempts to solve it but I don't know if anyone has gone full randomization. In California there's just a letter lottery for who gets first listing and then it's alphabetical, which doesn't really fix anything. With our voting setup it would be easy to have full randomization of each ballot. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Also, it doesn't appear that the Teamsters are going to endorse anyone this year.

 

Exclusive: In blow to Biden, Teamsters consider no endorsement in 2024 race (Reuters)

 

Quote

 

President Joe Biden is on the brink of failing to win a key labor endorsement as leaders of the 1.3 million-member Teamsters union consider backing no candidate at all in the U.S. presidential race, according to two people familiar with the matter.

 

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters decision has not been finalized and is expected to be made in the coming weeks.

 

 

Quote

 

Biden's team once viewed the Teamsters endorsement as all but inevitable, and still counts a number of senior leaders there as supporters. But months of deteriorating relations and rising concerns about Biden's political endurance have soured sentiment among some of the leaders at the union, which represents workers in fields ranging from trucking to manufacturing and office work.

 

"No final decision has been made," said Kara Deniz, a spokesperson for the Teamsters, adding that any reporting that suggests an outcome is speculative.

 

Last week, United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain met with that union's executive board to discuss his concerns over Biden's ability to defeat Trump.

 

 

Quote

 

Teamsters President Sean O'Brien will speak at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday night but is not yet scheduled to speak at the Democratic convention in August.

 

O'Brien reached out simultaneously to the Democratic and Republican national committees to speak at their conventions but only heard back from Republicans, Deniz told Reuters.

 

A person familiar with the planning of the Democratic convention said no final decisions had been made about their programming.

 

 

For the record, O'Brien asked to speak at both conventions.

[SuperSpreader]

Wow

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

How the devil have the Democrats not already invited O'Brien to speak at the convention?!?

[Jason]

2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Last week, United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain met with that union's executive board to discuss his concerns over Biden's ability to defeat Trump.

 

I'm concerned about Biden's age too but this is such a circular argument coming from a major endorser. Yeah, no shit he can't win if you won't whip your people to vote for him! 

[Chairslinger]

Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

How the devil have the Democrats not already invited O'Brien to speak at the convention?!?

 

They were busy arguing over ditching Biden?