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Lack of verbal ability, not education or income, was most accurate indicator of Trump support in 2016


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14 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

Seriously because I have NO idea what it's actually trying to say.

 

I'll try and make it more readable. Part of the issue is it appears that the prediction question is asymmetric.

 

Some of the population supports and voted for Trump, but didn't vote for Romney in 2012. Lets call this group TNR for "Trump but Not Romney." The study aims to build a predictive model of whether someone belongs to the TNR group. We can also ask about predicting whether someone was a Obama and Clinton voter (OC).

 

What the study found is that as an individuals verbal ability decreases, the probability that they are in TNR increases. (In other words, there is a negative correlation between verbal ability, and being a TNR).

 

Somewhat inversely, as verbal ability increases, probability of being in the OC group increases (a positive correlation).

 

Note that this isn't completely inverse, because TNR and OC are not the complete set (there are also people who voted for Romney and voted for Trump).

 

 

 

Or the super tl;dr:

The worse your verbal skills are, the more likely Trump will uniquely appeal to you even more than republicans in general.

 

 

 

Caveat: I haven't read the actual study. But I'm pretty sure this is what the tweet is trying to say.

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