Jason Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, SaysWho? said: Souls to the Polls Is that the Soros fake vote busing operation? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Reminder about Florida, voting results and time zones: Quote In the note I write later tonight -- more like late tonight, I will send along my cheat sheet to how I will follow the election, but here's the deal, if the polling is right, and Gillum and Nelson win by 4 points or more, we will know pretty early, because as much as 50-60% of the state is likely to report before 7:30, 8:00 EST at the latest. Do keep in mind, as I will remind you all tonight, there is a significant GOP vote in the central time zone, so the early numbers will get more Republican as the night goes on, but I will help try to explain this on twitter. Big 'if' on the polling since we don't know were the polling errors are, but people who are good at reading Florida numbers will have a decent idea how close it'll be early in the night as they get the returns, and remember that there will be tightening no matter what because the Panhandle reports later as they're in a different time zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Reminder about Florida, voting results and time zones: Big 'if' on the polling since we don't know were the polling errors are, but people who are good at reading Florida numbers will have a decent idea how close it'll be early in the night as they get the returns, and remember that there will be tightening no matter what because the Panhandle reports later as they're in a different time zone. So part of Florida will start reporting while another part of Florida is still voting? I've always thought it's bad enough that that happens across states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jason said: So part of Florida will start reporting while another part of Florida is still voting? I've always thought it's bad enough that that happens across states. Yeah, remember 2000? Media outlets called Florida while people were still voting in the Panhandle. I THINK early votes and all will still be reported early? But always remember there's typically a sizable GOP vote remaining in the Panhandle. If Dems are looking far enough ahead, it's possible the race will be called earlier if Dems really do win by +4 or greater. If it's a bit tighter, than how far ahead the GOP is in the Panhandle will be crucial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 thank you for your service nate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, RedSoxFan9 said: thank you for your service nate Do you not understand how probability works? The polls are fine, they were fine in 2016, reporting on the polls is shit as is most other reporting in this country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSoxFan9 said: thank you for your service nate Ah, always nice to see reactions on Twitter from people who don't read past the headline. Quote "So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week." However, he noted that "polls aren't always right." "The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53." Hillary had a >80 chance of winning, and sure enough, Trump won. +15 Dems has around the same shot as +60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 The ending of this ad to a competitive Pennsylvania district is... something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Jason said: NO VOTER SUPPRESSION YOU'RE VOTER SUPPRESSION: Grampa, who are you talking to??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal Ball released their predictions. There's a wide array of possibilities, of course. Senate map is 52-48 GOP. Governors: House: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Dems only losing one Senate seat, gaining 10 Governor's, and ~50 house seats is about as optimistic/realistic as can be, considering about half of the Dem caucus is up this year in the Senate. The fact that IN/MO/and ND are all just lean R is very optimistic too. May still be able to get something there with good turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Dems only losing one Senate seat, gaining 10 Governor's, and ~50 house seats is about as optimistic/realistic as can be, considering about half of a Dem caucus is up this year in the Senate. The fact that IN/MO/and ND are all just lean R is very optimistic too. May still be able to get something there with good turnout. If all this happens (it would be REALLY nice to have a bunch of Dem governors for the upcoming census), I look forward to Chuck Todd's fabulous insight about how this means Dems are screwed because they'll have a lot to defend in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Latest polling on Beta v Cruz is more competitive than I thought it would be. I think Cruz will still win, but it's going to be closer than I thought. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 This is a, uh, "special" use of calling someone a "stiff". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 @Kal-El814 Ah shit, your favorite person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Now and forever... fuck Marco Rubio. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Jason said: This is a, uh, "special" use of calling someone a "stiff". Bill Nelson does look like a reanimated corpse so it's not an entirely inaccurate characterization. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Do you not understand how probability works? The polls are fine, they were fine in 2016, reporting on the polls is shit as is most other reporting in this country. Nate Silver 2008: I called 49/50 states! look at me! Nate Silver 2016-present: dO yOu NoT kNoW hOw PrObIlTy WoRkS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, RedSoxFan9 said: Nate Silver 2008: I called 49/50 states! look at me! Nate Silver 2016-present: dO yOu NoT kNoW hOw PrObIlTy WoRkS 2016 really did give you the brain worms. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Jason said: 2016 really did give you the brain worms. I found your party registration card Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Nate was talking probability in 08 and 2012. I guess the answer is no to understanding how probability works and yes to only reading the headline? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Nate was also the guy telling everyone who had Clinton at 99% chance of victory they're wrong... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Massdriver said: Latest polling on Beta v Cruz is more competitive than I thought it would be. I think Cruz will still win, but it's going to be closer than I thought. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Nate was also the guy telling everyone who had Clinton at 99% chance of victory they're wrong... Weren't Clinton campaign staff calling him to bitch about him under-selling her chances? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Nate was also the guy telling everyone who had Clinton at 99% chance of victory they're wrong... he also did this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Just now, Jason said: Weren't Clinton campaign staff calling him to bitch about him under-selling her chances? I just remember him going off on some of these models that basically had her as a lock and people getting pissy with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 If this election exhibits another systemic polling error, we're never having one of these threads again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 I mean it didnt really show a systemic polling error last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, RedSoxFan9 said: he also did this That picture needs to have a headline in it about Trump winning to put the cherry on top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Jose said: I mean it didnt really show a systemic polling error last time. Banned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Jose said: I mean it didnt really show a systemic polling error last time. Yeah. National vote share was very close to the polling amount, and Trump won razor thin margins in PA, MI, and WI giving him the presidency. We may see the same thing here, with Dems getting the combined vote total for the house easily, but losing a bunch of house districts by a razor thin margin costing them control of the chamber. And about a 15% chance of just that scenario too. There's also about the same % chance that Dems over perform (under counting/polling more marginal/less likely to vote groups) and even take the Senate, though I think this is a more remote chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: They are going to be watching every brown person very closely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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