Chairslinger Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, legend said: Ah. I guess I missed the context when catching up on this thread Legend trying to detect sarcasm..... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chairslinger said: Legend trying to detect sarcasm..... Yeah, but my sarcasm generator is off the charts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, legend said: Yeah, but my sarcasm generator is off the charts. That's useful 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 55 minutes ago, Chairslinger said: That's useful I stand by my priorities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 52 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Yay corrupt guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSoxFan9 said: Yay corrupt guy It's New Jersey. His opponent is corrupt by default. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: You'll never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, osxmatt said: You'll never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy? Who is Han, and who is he shooting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Who is Han, and who is he shooting? And did he fire first? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 29 minutes ago, RedSoxFan9 said: As someone in the discord mentioned the other day, libertarianism is to fascism as social democracy is to socialism. I think it was @run32.dll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Yahoo! News November 7th 2018: GOP set to introduce Constitutional Amendment that repeals the 26th Amendment and sets the new voting age to 30 years old. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 NVs last day of EV was huge in Clark Count (Vegas) and final numbers aren't in yet, should be close to final day turnout in 2016 which was 57k where dems added 11k registration advantage. Ralston gives his final prediction tomorrow for the state i believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 The one thing I'd caution is 2014 had very low turnout, so it's easier to increase youth turnout from there when the bar is so low. That said, nothing wrong with those numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: The one thing I'd caution is 2014 had very low turnout, so it's easier to increase youth turnout from there when the bar is so low. That said, nothing wrong with those numbers. Its a significant raw number too, this is likely going to completely shift the mid term. Its also not just the 19-29 thats up, 30-39 is up everywhere as well, and since the GOP has a larger percentage of its voters vote in midterms than Dems we're likely seeing a lot of the GOP early vote cannibalizing their ED vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Its a significant raw number too, this is likely going to completely shift the mid term. Its also not just the 19-29 thats up, 30-39 is up everywhere as well, and since the GOP has a larger percentage of its voters vote in midterms than Dems we're likely seeing a lot of the GOP early vote cannibalizing their ED vote. It's just not given any context. I'd like to believe all the numbers are great and the polls aren't picking up on them (and that could be the case), but it doesn't give it context to what those states' youth early vote was like in 2014 compared to other age groups and how it compares to 2016. I just don't like using early vote as an indicator, and I wish Florida's were higher (unless, of course, youth turnout was higher than those other states in 2014 and it had less to go). It's all about context. By themselves, there's nothing wrong with the numbers. I'm just extra cautious after the last two cycles to get excited about early vote totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 Better way to put it: we're pretty good at doing early vote prognostication in Nevada and Arizona. We haven't really figured out how to do it with other states yet. It's still worthwhile information because one of the biggest things is how many first-time voters and non-likely voters Democrats could inspire to vote this year. That's what I'm hoping Gillum is doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, SaysWho? said: It's just not given any context. I'd like to believe all the numbers are great and the polls aren't picking up on them (and that could be the case), but it doesn't give it context to what those states' youth early vote was like in 2014 compared to other age groups and how it compares to 2016. I just don't like using early vote as an indicator, and I wish Florida's were higher (unless, of course, youth turnout was higher than those other states in 2014 and it had less to go). It's all about context. By themselves, there's nothing wrong with the numbers. I'm just extra cautious after the last two cycles to get excited about early vote totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Heres Ralston's final NV estimate. NV also surpassed 2014s total vote with just its EV. RATINGS BASED ON EARLY/MAIL NUMBERS: U.S. Senate: Slight lean D Gov: Slight lean D —If Dean Heller and Jacky Rosen are holding 90 percent of their bases and getting 5 percent of the other’s and each is getting 45 percent of indies: Rosen is ahead by nearly 20,000 votes, or 3.1 percent.. —If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Heller is ahead by 50-45 with indies: He is losing by almost 13,000 votes, or 2.1 percent. —If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Rosen is ahead by 50-45 with indies: She is ahead by more than 26,000 votes, or 4.2 percent. —If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Heller is ahead by 50-40 with indies: He is losing by 5,500 votes, or about 1 percent. —If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Rosen is ahead by 50-40 with indies: She is ahead by almost 32,000 votes, or 5 percent. So you see how well Heller will need to do on Election Day, unless he is ahead with indies by a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 He has the real issues at heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 More than 25 youth-led activist groups have joined together to launch a campaign encouraging students across the country to walk out of their classrooms to vote on Election Day. The collective of organizations – which includes March For Our Lives, National School Walkout and 50 Miles More – initiated the effort as part of their what they're calling the Future Coalition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: More than 25 youth-led activist groups have joined together to launch a campaign encouraging students across the country to walk out of their classrooms to vote on Election Day. The collective of organizations – which includes March For Our Lives, National School Walkout and 50 Miles More – initiated the effort as part of their what they're calling the Future Coalition. Good. I like the name Future Coalition, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littleronin Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Woman receives a letter telling her she doesn't have the right to vote. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Jason said: Finally, he admits it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, SaysWho? said: He has the real issues at heart. So "super long line" = bigger than Obama's? I'm not saying that very white line of people is not larger than any crowd Obama drew in Montana, but that tweet isn't making any comparison claims at all. Though it really does look like the entire population of Montana is in one location there. We can start a final solution with minimal effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, Spawn_of_Apathy said: So "super long line" = bigger than Obama's? I'm not saying that very white line of people is not larger than any crowd Obama drew in Montana, but that tweet isn't making any comparison claims at all. Though it really does look like the entire population of Montana is in one location there. We can start a final solution with minimal effort. Lines and crowds are obviously a euphemism for dick and balls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 The last few polls this week have shown a swing to the Democrats (even more so) based on a large gender gap. It's possible that poll aggregates may be off by a few points, the Democrats look likely to overperform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 6 hours ago, SaysWho? said: He has the real issues at heart. If things don't go belly up, and we win at least the House on Tuesday, Trump makes it damn hard not to be a sore winner. His obsession with winning being the only thing that matters makes it hard not to do a victory lap on the takeover being rooted in how many tens of millions of people Trump inspired to loath him with a fiery, burning passion ( @ort ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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