mclumber1 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 hour ago, SFLUFAN said: Those panhandle counties are pretty heavily GOP-leaning I believe. The panhandle is basically lower Alabama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 hour ago, mclumber1 said: The panhandle is basically lower Alabama. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Nevada early vote usually predicts the outcomes in the state and it may already be over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Nevada early vote usually predicts the outcomes in the state and it may already be over. Lordy I hope he loses. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 10 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: Nevada early vote usually predicts the outcomes in the state and it may already be over. Nevada was the one place in 2016 where early voting did predict the winner. I think the difference is they record the party who votes, so they can track how many votes are left for election day and make better comparisons. He predicted a blue wave in 2016 in Nevada and that was the one place in the country where it happened. He also saw bad signs for Dems in 2014. It's still one day, though. Anyone here in Nevada needs to be part of the numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 New CNN poll has Nelson up 50-45 against Scott and Gillum up 54-42 against DeSantis. That percentage seems awfully high, but it's still good to see. Gillum has led in every poll. He's debating DeSantis tonight at 8 on CNN. Quote Gillum's 54% to 42% lead rests on advantages among women (60% back him vs. 34% who say they favor DeSantis), non-white voters (74% back Gillum, 23% DeSantis), younger voters (60% for Gillum, 33% for DeSantis) and political independents (51% back Gillum, 42% DeSantis). Gillum has also consolidated Democratic support (97% favor him) in a way that DeSantis has not matched on the Republican side (88% back him). Quote The CNN findings could be an outlier -- a statistical anomaly which occurs in polling by random chance. It also could be an indicator of renewed Democratic enthusiasm. Even if it's an outlier, I do wonder if he's expanded his lead overall since the beginning of the month. I want to see more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 This is another thing that struck me about the Florida polls: When polling registered voters, Nelson and Gillum did slightly worse. Many times, likely voter polls are a point or two more Republican since many Democrats aren't as frequent voters as Republicans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 Another set of Florida polls arrived today from a B- poster that had Scott up 2 and Gillum up 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 DeSantis looks so nervous in this debate. Or is it just me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 5 hours ago, SaysWho? said: New CNN poll has Nelson up 50-45 against Scott and Gillum up 54-42 against DeSantis. That percentage seems awfully high, but it's still good to see. Gillum has led in every poll. He's debating DeSantis tonight at 8 on CNN. Even if it's an outlier, I do wonder if he's expanded his lead overall since the beginning of the month. I want to see more. Gillum seems to be riding high. He's carrying Nelson as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 minute ago, thewhyteboar said: Gillum seems to be riding high. He's carrying Nelson as well. I remember Crist was barely ahead but lost, but that was 2014 and a big Republican year with low turnout. I'm feeling better about Gillum, especially watching this debate, but it's Nelson/Scott that is a bit more worrying. I'm hoping Gillum does what I'm hoping, which is bring new voters that also vote Nelson. I'm still not 100% that Gillum will win, but that's just because Florida is so competitive, and I want everyone to vote as if he were behind 15 points in the polls. Man, would I love to defeat Scott this year and for Wisconsin to get rid of Walker. It's like erasing the people haunting us since 2010 lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 "That may not fit your description of what people like me do." omg, he went there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 Gillum is a REALLY good debater. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Gillum did really well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 Gillum, as he did in the debate, calls Trump weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 Democrats doing more to try to win attorneys general races. Quote This year, some Republican attorney-general candidates say they want to tamp down the polarization. “We shouldn’t be jousting and taking a partisan stand on every issue,” said George Brauchler, the Republican running against Weiser in Colorado’s attorney-general race. But even if some Republicans really are regretting their colleagues’ aggressive tactics (Weiser, for his part, claims that Brauchler isn’t as moderate as he seems), it may be difficult to put the genie back in the bottle. State attorneys general have become nationally more important in a time of political gridlock, said James Tierney, a former attorney general of Maine and a lecturer at Harvard Law School. Apart from their ability to sue the federal government directly, there are other ways for AGs to influence policy — whether they believe the problem is federal overreach or underreach. They can, for example, limit how much state and local law enforcement officers cooperate with federal immigration agencies or step in to sue companies when they believe the federal government isn’t doing enough to protect citizens. While Republicans seem to have long understood the legal importance of possessing an attorney general’s chair, Democrats may only now be trying to catch up. Lizzie Ulmer, the communications director of the Democratic Attorneys General Association, told FiveThirtyEight that the organization went from one part-time consultant working out of a Denver office building in 2016 to a fully staffed party committee this year — similar to what the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is for House races, for example. So far this election cycle, the association has raised $14 million according to disclosure forms from the Internal Revenue Service. That’s well ahead of the $8 million it raised in the 2014 cycle — but it’s still far behind the $31 million that its Republican counterpart, the Republican Attorneys General Association, has raised so far this cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 One of the reasons Tester is likely to win reelection in Montana is cause his opponent openly opposes the ACA protections for preexisting conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 If you missed the debate, this shows how good Gillum did, SHIT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 DeSantis needs to work on his poker face also tommy christopher needs to ditch that stupid hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds The data suggests enthusiasm among early GOP voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in the midterms. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 I’m glad Kavanaugh got confirmed because that means Democrats will do better in elections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 31 minutes ago, Massdriver said: Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds The data suggests enthusiasm among early GOP voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in the midterms. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881 Early voting numbers really don't mean a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Massdriver said: Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds The data suggests enthusiasm among early GOP voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in the midterms. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881 Except that some of these states are only counting mail-in ballots so far, which the GOP normally dominates anyway. They aren't including in-person voting, which the Democrats dominate. Quote Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete. I'm not saying these numbers won't hold up, but I don't think that they are telling the entire story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 Plus: Florida Democrats hold 90,000 early vote lead, but will it carry Clinton to White House? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 I hope you all realize that I didn’t post that to say that was the end of the story. I thought it was interesting enough to add to the thread. I also think some of the data, for instance in Texas, is measuring in person early voting unless I’m missing something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, Massdriver said: I hope you all realize that I didn’t post that to say that was the end of the story. I thought it was interesting enough to add to the thread. I also think some of the data, for instance in Texas, is measuring in person early voting unless I’m missing something. I'm just adding context. Polling accounts for early voting, which is why 2012, 14 and 16 featured contradictory early voting to results in many cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 Florida had a SLEW of polls today. Scott +5, Even, Nelson +6, Nelson +8. The Nelson polls are from better pollsters. That's still quite the spread, but that's overall good for Nelson. I'm curious about the Scott poll as it also shows DeSantis' first lead at +3, but two other polls have Gillum up +1 and +7. That's in addition to three others that had Gillum up +1, +6 and +12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I hope he’s smoking 5 packs a day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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