Massdriver Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: I feel this is the type of race where polls can be really wrong, because of who is engaged in lower turn out years, in 2016 Trump won by 9% with over 3 million votes were cast for Clinton, in 2014 2.8 million were cast for Cornyn, who won by 30%. If dem turnout was close to a presidential year, Cruz could absolutely be in trouble. Just look at the VA Gov race in 2017, Northam was averaging +3 in polls, he won by +9 and dems almost took control of the state, because turnout surged in dem areas in an off year election in a way pollster really couldn't predict, doesn't mean Beto is going to win, just that it could be a lot closer than people are expecting. I would go as far to say that a lot of people I know are angry at Beto. There is anger in Texas, and some fear a Beto victory. Out of everyone around me, I probably give him the least chance of winning because I see how his campaign has inflamed the Republican base here. Then I look at the evidence which indicates that Beto is behind. If the polls showed them within the margin of error more consistently, then I may be more open to a Beto win. The polls could be wrong and may be underestimating who is going to show up on Beto's side. Never underestimate the Republican base in Texas and never count on young demographics to show up to a mid term election in the state with the worst voter turn out stats in the country. There isn't a mail in ballot in Texas for people under 65. The early vote times and locations are a pain in the ass to get to. Employers don't give time off to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 I was hoping Texas republitards would sleep through this election, wake up on Nov 7th to realize the state is one step closer to turning blue. Sadly all it takes to mobilize Republitards is to let them know the Democrats are getting upiddy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Apparently Hispanics are disproportionately behind Cruz, as well (relative to the national GOP). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 If i was Cruz i wouldn't be happy with a 5-6 point lead, in a state with notoriously low voter participation rates, in an off year against an opponent energizing the dem base and an unpopular president from his party. Even in the NYTs poll where hes up 8, they broke it down where if only people who were certain to vote only voted and no one else, Beto was +3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 12, 2018 Author Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Massdriver said: Those are all reasonable points, but I predict Cruz will win and I have no doubt of the outcome. This is Texas. There is a ton of enthusiasm all around me to shut Beto down. His campaign has relied upon charisma and exciting the Democratic base in Texas. It will fail to garner enough votes from independents or "moderates" in Texas since they lean Republican, and his positions will excite the GOP base to show up to shut it down and keep Texas red. I won't be the least bit surprised if likely voter polls continue to show Cruz pulling away with a 7-9 point advantage.' I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on whether there should be doubt about it. I think there's plenty of doubt in this race, but I agree that Cruz is definitely a favorite. It's just that I'm not seeing him so far ahead that it would give him *guaranteed* buffer against a surge of voters that the polling didn't get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on whether there should be doubt about it. I think there's plenty of doubt in this race, but I agree that Cruz is definitely a favorite. It's just that I'm not seeing him so far ahead that it would give him *guaranteed* buffer against a surge of voters that the polling didn't get. There should be reasonable doubt based on the evidence. I just don’t doubt it personally because of some of the things I’m seeing and hearing on the ground. I’m not going to convince anyone on my intuition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 28 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Apparently Hispanics are disproportionately behind Cruz, as well (relative to the national GOP). Damn it Hispanics, he's Cuban! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Just horrifying! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Polling is inherently weak when it comes to new voters, especially as pollsters have moved to Likely Voter models. Right now if you slice the polls out only for people who have proclaimed they're certain to vote (regardless of whether the pollster believes them) then Beto is actually +3. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, Anathema- said: Polling is inherently weak when it comes to new voters, especially as pollsters have moved to Likely Voter models. Right now if you slice the polls out only for people who have proclaimed they're certain to vote (regardless of whether the pollster believes them) then Beto is actually +3. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html under different turnout scenarios WHO WILL VOTE? EST. TURNOUT OUR POLL RESULT The types of people who voted in 2014 4.4m Cruz +15 People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say 6.3m Cruz +9 Our estimate 6.3m Cruz +8 People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness 6.8m Cruz +8 People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else 7.3m O’Rourke +3 The types of people who voted in 2016 7.9m Cruz +5 Every active registered voter 13.2m Cruz +4 Every single other category has Cruz up. Do whatever you need to do to have hope, but it's done. I will come back here like a whipped dog in November and tell you I'm an idiot if Beto wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 All I'm saying is that a Beto win wouldn't be that crazy, especially when we consider the average Democratic candidate overperformance. Hope isn't something that drives me to comment, although I do have hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 14 hours ago, Anathema- said: All I'm saying is that a Beto win wouldn't be that crazy, especially when we consider the average Democratic candidate overperformance. Hope isn't something that drives me to comment, although I do have hope. Yep. And youth turnout (based on polls!!!!) Suggests that it may be very much unusually high for a midterm year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 And FWIW I don't think anyone is an idiot for predicting a Cruz win, even if he does wind up losing. It's obviously, based on polling and fundamentals, the safe pick. Beto isn't even in the position that Doug Jones was; he's got a tough row to hoe no matter how you slice it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 These are strange enough times that any poll in any direction should be met with some skepticism. Cruz is the safer bet, but I think I'll keep my sharpie in the drawer for the next 8 years or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 13, 2018 Author Share Posted October 13, 2018 37 minutes ago, Anathema- said: And FWIW I don't think anyone is an idiot for predicting a Cruz win, even if he does wind up losing. It's obviously, based on polling and fundamentals, the safe pick. Beto isn't even in the position that Doug Jones was; he's got a tough row to hoe no matter how you slice it. Exactly where I fall. If Beto wins, I don't think Massdriver needs to eat any crow; it's a reasonable expectation! I just don't think it's unreasonable for Beto to be able to win based on what we've seen in elections for the past year and what we're seeing from the polling as of now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 23 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Yep. And youth turnout (based on polls!!!!) Suggests that it may be very much unusually high for a midterm year Speaking of youth turnout, dems also had a 11 point lead in this poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 He's either a lock or he's toast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 44 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: He's either a lock or he's toast Thankfully, Russia still has 90% of the GOP, including the President, on their side, or this could be awful for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 44 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: He's either a lock or he's toast This is what the article says: Quote As the GOP struggles with how to spend its money, suburban California Republicans are at great risk, the paper reports, “because of the state’s exorbitant advertising costs.” “Money saved in the costly Los Angeles media market can be spread over several contests in other states that may be considered more winnable,” the Times writes. A veteran Republican strategist said the cuts mean the party is worried about keeping a majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Also he is spending on other Texas democrats, a smart move on many levels; build local infrastructure and help new potential straight ticket voters to the polls (This is one of the things that made Northam's win so massive and larger than the polling; larger turnout for statehouse races). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 lol... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 New poll has Cruz only up +4. It has the GOP opponent to Tester in Montana up by 3 points, and Manchin up by 4. The last two were done by a C pollster. The Montana one is interesting as most polls have Tester ahead by single digits, so more polls would be helpful there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firewithin Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/15/2018 at 9:04 AM, b_m_b_m_b_m said: He's either a lock or he's toast heres hoping comrade Dana is toast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Hey, that pimp died. Quote Dennis Hof, the Nevada brothel owner and Republican candidate for state assembly, died Tuesday at one of his brothels after a birthday party, officials said. He was 72. Hof, a candidate for the state Assembly in a district in southern Nevada, died in his sleep in the hours after a celebration that featured pornography star Ron Jeremy, former Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio and anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, according to his campaign manager Chuck Muth. Hof’s name will remain on the ballot for the upcoming election. If he is voted into office, the county commissions for the areas he would have represented will meet to select another Republican. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, MarSolo said: a celebration that featured pornography star Ron Jeremy, former Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio and anti-tax activist Grover Norquist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VaVpNG1HJQ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littleronin Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 The GOP has been trying to get Hof off the ticket since he won the primary out here. Guess they got their wish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 On 10/11/2018 at 7:18 PM, SFLUFAN said: New poll shows Democrat Shalala trailing GOP opponent in a district Trump lost badly Shalala, a Democrat running in a district that President Donald Trump lost by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016, is trailing Republican TV journalist Maria Elvira Salazar by 2 percentage points in a Mason Dixon-Telemundo 51 poll. The independent poll’s margin of error was 4 percentage points and included a pro-Trump non-party candidate who could siphon votes from Salazar. Two more polls came out with the Democrat leading by 5 and 13. The race may be reverting to the fundamentals of "big Democratic district" and "Democratic favorable year." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Something I'd point out for people in regards to 2020 (I know, I know, but hear me out): Despite Democratic advantages everywhere, Republicans have a decent chance of picking up two House seats in Minnesota. Democrats also have a decent chance of picking up a couple seats there as well, but still, both potential GOP pick-ups are in the same state. Minnesota just barely went for Hillary and avoided turning red, but like Wisconsin, it was also a swing state in 2000 and 2004 and polls overestimated Hillary in 2016. Part of that is likely due to it being a Republican year for the presidency, but I'd keep an eye out for the polls in Minnesota when we have to do this again two years ago this month. For reference, the seats the Dems have a decent shot at picking up are more suburban, whereas the ones Republicans have a decent chance at picking up are bigger and cover more rural areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Also, I'm looking at the pick-up opportunities, and they're pretty spread out. The south offers the least (partly due to gerrymandering), but there are, like, five pick-up opportunities in Pennsylvania due to the fair districts that were drawn. Texas, Kansas, Montana, Utah, Florida, Kentucky, Arizona, Iowa, West Virginia all have competitive races within the state, and California and New Jersey alone offer around 10. I can only imagine how many more would be competitive in places such as Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio if they weren't gerrymandered, but it's a pretty high amount of pick-up opportunities.That's why it's also extremely important to vote Democratic in the legislatures and to pick up governors' mansions in the midwest, Georgia, Florida, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSoxFan9 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Democrats need to force right wingers out of the party Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, RedSoxFan9 said: Democrats need to force right wingers out of the party Why should they if the constituents he represents agree with him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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