ort Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Dude, where do you think tartar sauce comes from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 hours ago, ort said: Dude, where do you think tartar sauce comes from? Borat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 So, in other election news: my advice to anyone who thinks polling isn't a totally broken science and has some knowledge of historical precedents in polling trends is...avert your eyes, unless the prospect of living under Orbanian soft fascism and the hellscape of Project 2025 gives you the warm fuzzies. Because right now many of the most recent post-SOTU polls that are dropping show Biden's approval rating at an all-time low--even as views of the economy are improving--and Trump ahead in Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Yes, there's close to seven months to go; yes, they are a snapshot of public opinion right now, and not communiques from Delphi predicting the future; yes, people might not be paying attention yet. But no incumbent in the poll era has ever come back from deficits like this, and neither Biden nor Trump are unknown quantities, so a major makeover is a taller order than it would be were they fresh faces. So, if you're trying to brew up some copium with polling data, seek other means, because the ingredients at your disposal are pretty terrible. You've got things like "maybe the coming election will break with historical precedent", "maybe polling is a defunct way to measure public opinion", "hey the midterms worked out better than we thought". But "hey Biden's gonna poll well because he's running against a convicted rapist who's also guilty of fraud who also tried to overturn the results of a presidential election and also has a publicly available plan to create a right-wing authoritarian state" is not a viable ingredient at the moment--it's just a reason to feel like an alien in your own country. Because when polled about half of the country says "Hey that rapist doesn't sound so bad, maybe he'll make my groceries less expensive." 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 51 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: So, in other election news: my advice to anyone who thinks polling isn't a totally broken science and has some knowledge of historical precedents in polling trends is...avert your eyes, unless the prospect of living under Orbanian soft fascism and the hellscape of Project 2025 gives you the warm fuzzies. Because right now many of the most recent post-SOTU polls that are dropping show Biden's approval rating at an all-time low--even as views of the economy are improving--and Trump ahead in Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Yes, there's close to seven months to go; yes, they are a snapshot of public opinion right now, and not communiques from Delphi predicting the future; yes, people might not be paying attention yet. But no incumbent in the poll era has ever come back from deficits like this, and neither Biden nor Trump are unknown quantities, so a major makeover is a taller order than it would be were they fresh faces. So, if you're trying to brew up some copium with polling data, seek other means, because the ingredients at your disposal are pretty terrible. You've got things like "maybe the coming election will break with historical precedent", "maybe polling is a defunct way to measure public opinion", "hey the midterms worked out better than we thought". But "hey Biden's gonna poll well because he's running against a convicted rapist who's also guilty of fraud who also tried to overturn the results of a presidential election and also has a publicly available plan to create a right-wing authoritarian state" is not a viable ingredient at the moment--it's just a reason to feel like an alien in your own country. Because when polled about half of the country says "Hey that rapist doesn't sound so bad, maybe he'll make my groceries less expensive." At the same time...every single actual election that has occurred has resulted in Democrats seeing +5% to +10% compared to polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 55 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: At the same time...every single actual election that has occurred has resulted in Democrats seeing +5% to +10% compared to polls. The problem is that the participants in those elections are typically high-information voters who by and large will skew Democratic while the general election will attract a larger proportion of low-information voters whose level of engagement simply won't be as high so there probably isn't a "significant" correlation between those results and the general election. Unfortunately, I'm with @Signifyin(g)Monkey on this one and genuinely do think that the polling isn't necessarily all that "broken" at all. We really, really need to start mentally preparing ourselves as best we can for what genuinely looks like will be an unthinkable, but all-too-probable outcome. That's not "doomerism" - that's recognition of a reality that it's probably best to make some degree of "peace" with starting right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I'd say the results of this poll pretty much reflect my sentiments as well: Yahoo News/YouGov poll: 'Dread' tops list of Americans' feelings about 2024 election — but 'optimism' is growing WWW.YAHOO.COM A majority of Americans (53%) chose at least one of the negative feelings (dread, exhaustion or depression), while 40% picked at least one of the positive feelings (optimism, excitement or delight). Quote The survey of 1,636 U.S. adults, which was conducted from March 8-11, offered respondents seven emotions — three positive, three negative, one neutral — and asked them to select any and all that describe their attitude toward the 2024 campaign. Dread, the most negative option, topped the list (40%), with exhaustion (29%) and depression (21%) making strong showings as well. Delight (8%) was in last place. In total, a majority of Americans (53%) chose at least one of the negative feelings (dread, exhaustion or depression), while just 40% picked at least one of the positive feelings (optimism, excitement or delight). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Who isn’t fucking dreading, or exhausted, or depressed thinking that fat orange fuck stands a good chance of winning his way out of consequences, again, and plunging us into an Orbanist Republic of sorts and all many who are supposedly an ally think that voting for Joe is an affirmative vote for genocide 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 4 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: The problem is that the participants in those elections are typically high-information voters who by and large will skew Democratic while the general election will attract a larger proportion of low-information voters whose level of engagement simply won't be as high so there probably isn't a "significant" correlation between those results and the general election. Unfortunately, I'm with @Signifyin(g)Monkey on this one and genuinely do think that the polling isn't necessarily all that "broken" at all. We really, really need to start mentally preparing ourselves as best we can for what genuinely looks like will be an unthinkable, but all-too-probable outcome. That's not "doomerism" - that's recognition of a reality that it's probably best to make some degree of "peace" with starting right now. The 2022 midterms didn't have the off-season special election skew problem, and Trump making the midterms a referendum on himself when he wasn't even on the ballot majorly tanked the GOP's performance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uaarkson Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I don’t know. Regardless of what the polls might say, my totally uneducated gut feeling is that Trump is not as popular as he was in 2016. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 12 minutes ago, Uaarkson said: I don’t know. Regardless of what the polls might say, my totally uneducated gut feeling is that Trump is not as popular as he was in 2016. He doesn't need to be "as popular" as he was in 2016. He just needs to be "popular enough" to reverse Biden's pretty damned narrow 2020 margins in the swing states. The fact of the matter is that this election is going to be between two historically "unpopular" candidates with an electorate that's largely exhausted by the entire political process. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 19 minutes ago, Jason said: The 2022 midterms didn't have the off-season special election skew problem, and Trump making the midterms a referendum on himself when he wasn't even on the ballot majorly tanked the GOP's performance. The 2022 midterms might as well have been a lifetime ago at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 5 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: He doesn't need to be "as popular" as he was in 2016. He just needs to be "popular enough" to reverse Biden's pretty damned narrow 2020 margins in the swing states. The fact of the matter is that this election is going to be between two historically "unpopular" candidates with an electorate that's largely exhausted by the entire political process. By design. it’s not a coincidence every time Trump runs words like “historically unpopular candidates” get thrown around. It’s a voter suppression tactic design to specifically exhaust the electorate. It worked the first, it failed the second time and will likely fail again. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ominous Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 The 2024 presidential election is like ordering a streak and being forced to have it covered in mayo or ranch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, Jason said: The 2022 midterms didn't have the off-season special election skew problem, and Trump making the midterms a referendum on himself when he wasn't even on the ballot majorly tanked the GOP's performance. If you’re explaining you’re losing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 25 minutes ago, Massdriver said: If you’re explaining you’re losing. Republicans have been explaining to me why there was a perfectly reasonable explanation for losing just about every election year since 2017. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Trump says he is not considering Nikki Haley as running mate | Reuters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 He’s more likely to pick RFKjr than Nikki… see the Vivek Ann Colter interview as to why Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 lmao imagine still sucking his asshole after your political future is clearly done 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 aka "Please pick me for VP" pathetic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 Just now, GeneticBlueprint said: aka "Please pick me for VP" pathetic Trump totally gonna pick Nimrrrrrrrrata Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 What an absolute disgrace of a human being. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silentbob Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Whatever spine they might of grown during the campaign can no longer support them. So once again another “Republican” crawls back and asks for their puppet strings to be reattached for their pathetic puppet master(?!?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Wait, are we supposed to be shocked? Come on, I’m still waiting for Chris Christie to sell out and then I get BINGO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 His vp pick is going to be one of his kids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 1 hour ago, chakoo said: His vp pick is going to be one of his kids. God I hope so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 1 minute ago, SuperSpreader said: God I hope so It'll be his daughter and he'll slip up and call her "what a beautiful first lady" a few times on the trail. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Ivanka is the only one he’d pick. Trump is fundamentally incapable of recognizing incompetence except in his own children. Which is why he won’t be picking any of his sons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Just now, CitizenVectron said: It'll be his daughter and he'll slip up and call her "what a beautiful first lady" a few times on the trail. “slip up” yeah totally on accident sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Do you think she calls him Daddy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 2 hours ago, SuperSpreader said: Do you think she calls him Daddy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Does Vivek call Ann “Daddy”? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 She almost definitely did this to try and get the VP pick. It would make sense for Trump to do it considering all of the people still voting Haley in the (closed) primaries since her dropping out of the race, as it might pull enough of those people over to make a difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 I’m just waiting for the adderall fueled tirade from the orange one where he insults her Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 6 hours ago, Spork3245 said: She almost definitely did this to try and get the VP pick. It would make sense for Trump to do it considering all of the people still voting Haley in the (closed) primaries since her dropping out of the race, as it might pull enough of those people over to make a difference. I don't know... it's not that people actually like Nikki Haley, they are just voting against Trump. Putting her on the ticket wouldn't do much of anything for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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