Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Yup - we definitely ain't gettin' a rate cut in June. Hell, we might not even get one before the election! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 27 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Yup - we definitely ain't gettin' a rate cut in June. Hell, we might not even get one before the election! We're never getting a rate cut under JPow because he doesn't seem to understand that the biggest inflation driver is housing and that high interest rates create a positive feedback loop on housing prices, since high interest rates suppresses new housing starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 JPMorgan, BlackRock Among BLS Economist’s CPI ‘Super Users’ WWW.BLOOMBERG.COM An economist from the Bureau of Labor Statistics corresponded on data related to a key US inflation gauge with major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc., raising... I’m sure nothing will come of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 I'm thinking we will get 1 rate cut Q4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ominous Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 3 hours ago, Massdriver said: I'm thinking we will get 1 rate cut Q4. Under overlord Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 4/10/2024 at 10:55 AM, Jason said: We're never getting a rate cut under JPow because he doesn't seem to understand that the biggest inflation driver is housing and that high interest rates create a positive feedback loop on housing prices, since high interest rates suppresses new housing starts. JPMorgan Makes the Case That High Rates Are Actually Driving Inflation WWW.BLOOMBERG.COM Costlier mortgages are spilling into rent, and the Fed needs to ease up, Jack Manley says 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Taylor Swift's London Eras Tour could delay Bank of England rate cut, analysts say WWW.CNBC.COM Taylor Swift's record-shattering Eras Tour is continuing to supercharge local economies during its U.K. leg, potentially impacting future interest rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 The jihad may finally be coming to an end. Fed minutes point to ‘likely’ rate cut coming in September WWW.CNBC.COM The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released minutes from its July 30-31 policy meeting. Quote Federal Reserve officials at their July meeting moved closer to a long-awaited interest rate reduction, stopping short while indicating that a September cut had grown increasingly probable, minutes released Wednesday showed. “The vast majority” of participants at the July 30-31 meeting “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting,” the summary stated. Markets are fully pricing in a September cut, which would be the first since the emergency easing in the early days of the Covid crisis. While all voters on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold benchmark rates steady, there was an inclination among an unspecified number of officials to start easing at the July meeting rather than waiting until September. The document stated that “several [meeting participants] observed that the recent progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case for reducing the target range 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision.” One basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so a 25 basis point reduction would be equivalent to a quarter percentage point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 Stop me if you've heard this one before... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Now the question is whether they go for maximum shock value with a 50 basis point cut instead of the expected 25 basis point reduction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uaarkson Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 I bet by the end of today we have a Trump tweet that rate cuts are ELECTION INTERFERENCE!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricofoley Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Rate cut just before the election and car sauce is projected to be cheap. Gas prices are down. We could be headed for lows not seen since 2021 WWW.NPR.ORG Pump prices having been falling all summer, and as Labor Day approaches, they're 47 cents lower than this time last year. Some analysts see $3 gasoline in our future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Quote In addition to assessing the current state of play, Powell took considerable time in the speech to evaluate what led to the surge in inflation — hitting its highest level in more than 40 years — as well as the Fed’s policy response and why price pressures have eased without a recession. Quote When inflation first began to rise in early 2021, he and his colleagues — as well as many Wall Street economists — dismissed it as “transitory” and caused by Covid-related factors that would abate. “The good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” Powell quipped to laughter form attendees, “with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board. I think I see some former shipmates out there today.” When it became clear that inflation was spreading from goods to services, the Fed pivoted and began hiking, ultimately adding 5.25 percentage points to its benchmark overnight rate that had been around zero following emergency cuts in the early pandemic days. The rise in inflation, Powell said, was “a global phenomenon,” the result of “rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices.” He attributed confidence in the Fed and well-anchored expectations that inflation ultimately would ease to the economy avoiding a sharp downturn during the hiking cycle. “The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities, and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability,” he said. “An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations, reinforced by vigorous central bank actions, can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack.” Quote Powell added that there is still “much to be learned” from the experience. “That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may differ,” he said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ominous Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 Oh man rate cuts, record high stock market, lower gas prices....and why this is bad for Bid...Harris. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Now the question is whether they go for maximum shock value with a 50 basis point cut instead of the expected 25 basis point reduction? I stand by my quarter point prediction. Small caps up 3.18%. International up nearly 2%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 27 minutes ago, Massdriver said: I stand by my quarter point prediction. That's by far the most likely result. However, from Powell's remarks today, it does appear that the Fed is at least "open" to a 50 basis point cut if any softness in the upcoming labor market data warrants it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 I'm on the phone with Powell everyday and working him for a .5 rate cut. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 11 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: I'm on the phone with Powell everyday and working him for a .5 rate cut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 US 2Q GDP growth was revised upward to 3.0% (from 2.8%) so I imagine that JPow is talking smack to everyone at the Fed right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 This pretty much locks in the September rate cut. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected WWW.CNBC.COM The PCE price index was expected to increase 0.2% in July and 2.5% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Quote Inflation edged higher in July, according to a measure favored by the Federal Reserve as the central bank prepares to enact its first interest rate reduction in more than four years. The Commerce Department reported Friday that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% on the month and was up 2.5% from the same period a year ago, exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. The 12-month figure was slightly softer than the 2.7% estimate. Fed officials tend to focus more on the core reading as a better gauge of long-run trends. Both core and headline inflation on a 12-month basis were the same as in June. Excluding food, energy and housing, PCE increased just 0.1% on the month. As other inflation components ease, shelter has proven to be stubborn, again rising 0.4% in July, according to Friday’s report. Elsewhere in the report, the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast. From a prices standpoint, inflation changed little over the past month. The BEA said that good prices fell by less than 0.1% though services increased 0.2%. On a 12-month basis, goods also were off by less than 0.1%, while services jumped 3.7%. Food prices were up 1.4% and energy accelerated 1.9%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 CPI Report Live Updates: Inflation Slows to 2.5% in August - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM U.S. inflation slowed to 2.5 percent in the year through August, but beneath the surface the details suggested that the costs of key categories, like housing, were stubborn. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Just now, Brian said: CPI Report Live Updates: Inflation Slows to 2.5% in August - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM U.S. inflation slowed to 2.5 percent in the year through August, but beneath the surface the details suggested that the costs of key categories, like housing, were stubborn. CME places the probability of a 25 basis point cut at 85% (15% for 50 basis point cut). https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Of course, the market is very sad today that it doesn't appear that its going to get the "aggressive" 50 basis point cut that was never really on the table to begin with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Of course, the market is very sad today that it doesn't appear that its going to get the "aggressive" 50 basis point cut that was never really on the table to begin with. i think it's just sad it's not getting that Trump tax cut after all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 jihad update tomorrow right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 13 hours ago, Jason said: jihad update tomorrow right? The FOMC meets next Tuesday/Wednesday. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted Monday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:04 PM CME probabilities now favor a 50 basis points cut: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html A group of Democratic senators (Warren, Whitehouse, Hickenlooper) sent a letter to JPow urging a 75 basis points cut which I have no doubt he immediately tossed into the shredder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted Monday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:26 PM 21 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: CME probabilities now favor a 50 basis points cut: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html A group of Democratic senators (Warren, Whitehouse, Hickenlooper) sent a letter to JPow urging a 75 basis points cut which I have no doubt he immediately tossed into the shredder. I'd assume the purpose of the 75 basis point cut letter was to give him "cover" for "only" doing 50 basis points? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted Monday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:28 PM Just now, Jason said: I'd assume the purpose of the 75 basis point cut letter was to give him "cover" for "only" doing 50 basis points? I can all-but-assure you that Powell doesn't need cover from Democratic senators to enact a 50 basis points cut if he damned well feels like one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:45 PM They should throw everyone off their game and do a number that's not a multiple of 25. "69bps rate cuts for all!" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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