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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (27 June 2024) - US/Israel in talks to supply 8 Patriot systems to Ukraine


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Yesterday Ukraine struck the oil storage/port of Kavkaz, which is opposite the Kerch straight (in Russia itself). Three large oil storage tanks were destroyed, and all ships have left the port. Ukraine is clearly trying to disrupt Russian oil exports, and it appears to be working. 

 

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Last night Russia launched a very large missile attack on Ukraine, 100+ missiles/drones. Over 80 were shot down.

 

Currently, Ukraine is launching a major drone attack on Crimea, appears to be in the vicinity of Kerch. Neptune missiles also launched from Ukraine.

 

Yesterday it appears that Ukraine launched a series of strikes at an 8km long column of Russian armour inside Russia. They had assembled in Kursk and were headed in the Kharkiv direction. Ukraine took out the front and rear of the column at the same time, somehow (believed to be HIMARS and drones), trapping the entire column. Focused fire was then brought down on the entire thing as it scattered into the countryside. From Russian reports, heavy casualties.

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Looks like 35+ long-range drones attacking targets in Crimea, along with Neptune missiles, Storm Shadows, and ATACMS. In the north, ATACMS and HIMARS are being used on Russian positions (only the latter on Russian territory). For reference, Neptune missiles are homemade Ukrainian cruise missiles designed for anti-surface ship operations. It was believed they didn't have any at the start of the war, but they clearly have managed to repair a bunch of them and build more. They were used to take out the Russian flagship a while back, but have since been modified to strike land targets.

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The Russians have been using S-300 and S-400 AA missiles to strike land targets (usually cities, since they can't aim very well). However, none have been launched at Kharkiv in the last few days...likely because Ukraine has been taking out a tonne of S-300/400 emplacements in Belgorod over the last week.

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ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET

 

Cool!

 

Quote

French authorities have arrested a Russian-speaking man in possession of explosives in his hotel room close to the Paris Charles de Gaulle airport on Monday, BFM television and JDD newspaper reported, citing unnamed sources.

 

BFM, quoting a source familiar with the case, said the man had been trying to fabricate an explosive device. France’s DGSI intelligence service has taken over the case, it added.

 

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Ukraine sunk another Russian ship last night. Also struck an oil refinery in Russia, apparently with massive damage (not just a single tank).

 

Satellite photos show that Russia has abandoned their major port of Novorossiysk (including submarines) due to repeated Ukrainian naval drone strikes:

 

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  • CitizenVectron changed the title to Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (06 June 2024) - Russia has abandoned (the Russian!) port of Novorossiysk, with all ships and submarines leaving after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes

A Ukrainian drone strike on an airbase pretty deep inside southern Russia appears to have damaged one of Russia's few SU-57s.

 

WWW.BUSINESSINSIDER.COM

Ukraine claims to have struck one of Russia's advanced Su-57 stealth fighter jets deep inside Russia.

 

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Ukraine hit a prized Russian Su-57 fighter jet stationed deep inside Russian territory for the first time, Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR) reported Sunday morning.

 

Ukraine says the aircraft was damaged following a strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region in southern Russia, 360 miles from the front line.

 

Satellite imagery provided by Ukraine's military intelligence appears to show the aircraft standing intact on June 7 and damaged on June 8.

 

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1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

A Ukrainian drone strike on an airbase pretty deep inside southern Russia appears to have damaged one of Russia's few SU-57s.

 

WWW.BUSINESSINSIDER.COM

Ukraine claims to have struck one of Russia's advanced Su-57 stealth fighter jets deep inside Russia.

 

 

 

Excellent. Ukraine is striking deeper and deeper inside Russia. Here is a map of regions with confirmed strikes or interceptions of Ukrainian long-range drones. Pretty much the entire European Russia:

 

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15 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

If I were Ukraine, I would be launching as many missiles as possible at this:

 

 

 

Ukraine is better off targeting military and government facilities.  Hitting financial districts seems like a waste of resources, and if you start killing a lot of civilians who are otherwise not engaged in the war, worldwide public support will begin to drop.  

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4 minutes ago, TUFKAK said:

Ukraine S tier confirmed 

 

Though incompetence (and shortage of actual resources) is likely to blame for Russia failing to hit most of Ukraine's recent drone and missile strikes, it does appear that Ukraine is doing an amazing job of targeting and taking out advanced Russian AA systems with...easy-to-hit drones. The exception are ATACMS strikes, which Russia does seem completely incapable of stopping. But there is no reason these long-range drones should be getting 1,000+ km into Russia without being taken down. They are effectively strapping explosives to light airplanes (think cesnas) and getting free kills for reason, but I'm not going to complain!

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I think it's clear that Ukraine is helping pave the way for F-16s being delivered this summer. The US-provided glide bombs have apparently been very effective (90%+ successful hits) when jerry rigged to Ukrainian fighters, so I think they will be one of the primary tools for frontline assault moving forward. Ukraine is also apparently developing their own glide bomb that should be in the field soon.

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This morning emails went out advising Russian air defense personnel stationed in Crimea to pack and prepare their families to evacuate to the southern Russian military district. It's possible this is just a poorly worded email advising of standard rotation out of Crimea, or it's possible that Russia is pulling back some of its air defense units into Russia since they can't seem to hit anything, anyway (and are being destroyed). Hopefully the latter!

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A few air defense items today, along with musings:

  • Germany donating 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine
  • Ukraine destroyed a BUK-M2 air defense system with a small switchblade drone
  • Ukraine destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system with HIMARS

Basically, we are in a new age where $10,000-$30,000 drones are able to take out $100 million+ defense systems. I can't imagine the theorizing inside the Pentagon and other areas about how to stop future waves of drones. What does an American forward position do in 2032 when there are 100+ drone strikes per day on their position, and the missiles that can take them down cost 10x as much as the drone?

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