Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (27 June 2024) - US/Israel in talks to supply 8 Patriot systems to Ukraine

[CitizenVectron]

Sweden has become the first country to officially approve their arms being used against targets within Russia. Allegedly the UK has also given permission, but I don't think they have (otherwise Ukraine would likely be using Storm Shadows against air bases housing strategic bombers).

[CitizenVectron]

 

It's basically Secretary of State Blinkin (who is in favour of allowing strikes on Russia) vs coward advisor Jake Sullivan, who has throughout this entire war dragged the US' feet on basically every step (he fought hard against HIMARS, ATACMS, F-16s, etc).

[mclumber1]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Sweden has become the first country to officially approve their arms being used against targets within Russia. Allegedly the UK has also given permission, but I don't think they have (otherwise Ukraine would likely be using Storm Shadows against air bases housing strategic bombers).

 

Sweden should also sell "made in Sweden" stickers and stencils that Ukraine can use as they see for on the other weaponry they've acquired from other allies.

[LazyPiranha]

4 hours ago, mclumber1 said:

 

Sweden should also sell "made in Sweden" stickers and stencils that Ukraine can use as they see for on the other weaponry they've acquired from other allies.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

This is potentially FAR more than a "big deal".

 

Strike On Russian Strategic Early Warning Radar Site Is A Big Deal

WWW.TWZ.COM

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Russia losing a strategic early warning radar system is a new twist in the Ukraine conflict that could have further reaching ramifications.

 

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Satellite imagery confirms a Russian strategic early warning radar site in the southwestern end of the country was substantially damaged in a reported Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week. This looks to be a first-of-its-kind attack on a site linked to Russia's general strategic defense. As such, it points to a new and worrisome dimension to the conflict, especially when it comes to the potential use of nuclear weapons.

 

A satellite image taken on May 23 that The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs of the Armavir Radar Station in Russia's southwestern Krasnodar Krai shows significant debris around one of the site's two Voronezh-DM radar buildings. These are ultra-high-frequency (UHF) over-the-horizon (OTH) radars that are part of Russia's nuclear ballistic missile early warning system.

 

What can be seen in the satellite image aligns with pictures taken from ground level that emerged on social media earlier today, which show severe damage to both structures housing the Voronezh-DMs at Armavir. There is also clear evidence of multiple hits on the radar buildings. It is worth noting that radar arrays are generally very sensitive and fragile systems, and even relatively limited damage can result in a "mission kill," rendering them inoperable for an extended period of time.

 

At the time of writing, Ukrainian authorities do not appear to have publicly claimed responsibility for the attack on Armavir. There also do not look to be any official statements from the Russian government. Ukrainian forces have targeted multiple locations within Krasnodar Krai, which lies just across the Sea of Azov, in the past using kamikaze drones.

 

There has been some speculation that Ukrainian forces may have targeted Armavir over concerns about the site's ability to help provide advance warning about its strikes involving U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles.

 

 

Quote

 

Regardless of Armavir's direct relevance to the conflict in Ukraine or the exact intended goals of the attack on the site, it has much broader ramifications. The two Voronezh-DMs at the facility are a key part of Russia's larger strategic early warning network and their loss, even temporarily, could only degrade the country's ability to detect incoming nuclear threats. There are also concerns about how this could impact the ability of Russia's overall strategic warning network to evaluate potential threats and eliminate false positives due to possible loss of overlapping coverage in certain areas.

 

Beyond that, it has been pointed out that the attack on Armavir could meet the conditions the Russian government laid out publicly in 2020 for actions that could trigger a nuclear retaliatory strike. Russia's early warning network is part of the country's broader nuclear deterrent posture.

 

 

As @CayceG and I discussed in the Discord server, this is a really, really bad move by Kyiv to potentially knock a Russian strategic EW site offline because it could have seriously compromised the nuclear security between the US/NATO and Russia as there now could very well be a "coverage gap" in Moscow's ability to determine whether an incoming nuclear threat exists or not.

 

For Ukraine's part, I cannot help but imagine that the Biden administration would be absolutely livid with Kyiv at this and it certainly won't help their case for the lifting the restrictions on the use of American weapons on sovereign Russian territory.

[CayceG]

Truly the most bone-headed move Ukraine's made of the entire war. And the consequences--which are incredibly unlikely--may not even impact Ukraine at all.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

12 minutes ago, CayceG said:

Truly the most bone-headed move Ukraine's made of the entire war. And the consequences--which are incredibly unlikely--may not even impact Ukraine at all.

 

The main consequence to Ukraine is that Sullivan will continue to win the argument about the weapons usage constraints.

[CayceG]

I don't really think it should be paired. I'm against Sullivan's restrictions. 

 

Besides, they didn't even use anything we gave them to hit that radar. 

[CitizenVectron]

NATO Secretary General: "Western weapons delivered to Ukraine already belong to Ukrainians, so it is Ukraine’s right to attack Russian territory."

 

This means nothing without US support, of course. Internally within NATO it appears that the UK, Poland, Canada, and the Baltic nations support using Western arms against Russian targets, while the US and Germany are blocking it.

[CitizenVectron]

So not only is Ukraine not allowed to fire western weapons on Russian targets inside Russia...they are being told not to fire air defense missiles at Russian missiles/bombers until they cross into Ukrainian airspace. So if a Patriot system sees a Russian strategic bomber 50km inside Russia launching cruise missiles towards Kharkiv, Ukraine is not allowed to fire interceptors until those missiles cross the border...which is only 30km away. This would explain why Russia has been able to hit Kharkiv so much lately: because Ukraine is not allowed to even use interceptors until the missiles cross the border, at which point the chances of interception drop (compared to downing them over Russia).

 

Mega-Nachteil im Krieg: Ukraine darf nicht gegen Putin zurückschießen | Politik | BILD.de

WWW.BILD.DE

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„Es ist wie ein Boxkampf, bei dem ein Kämpfer eine Hand auf dem Rücken gebunden bekommt.“ Die Ukraine darf auf russische Angriffe auf Russland nicht reagieren.

 

[chakoo]

The rule is dumb. Just let them use them and if they do something wrong/bad with them they know the West will quickly cut their supply of future weapons.

[Spork3245]

What's the actual reasoning for this rule? I can understand putting some limitations on targets, but this seems kinda stupid AF.

[CitizenVectron]

30 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

What's the actual reasoning for this rule? I can understand putting some limitations on targets, but this seems kinda stupid AF.

 

Fear that Russia will use this red line as the reason start WWIII (even though every other single Jake Sullivan red line has been crossed without issue). 

 

Russia is currently using North Korean, Chinese, and Iranian weaponry to kill people in Ukraine...they aren't going to start WWIII over Ukraine using Western arms defensively in Russian targets. Ukraine is already hitting dozens of targets per week inside Russia using long-range drones.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Personally, I cannot say that I am completely unsympathetic to Sullivan's position though there are naturally nuances that he might not be fully appreciating.

[TUFKAK]

I’m sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause but I have zero desire to send Americans into harms way for them. 

[CayceG]

1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Personally, I cannot say that I am completely unsympathetic to Sullivan's position though there are naturally nuances that he might not be fully appreciating.

 

This is where I am. 

 

1 hour ago, TUFKAK said:

I’m sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause but I have zero desire to send Americans into harms way for them. 

 

French soldiers, however...

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-commander-french-military-instructors-visit-ukrainian-training-centres-2024-05-27/

 

Macron says Kyiv should be allowed to ‘neutralise’ Russian military bases, prompting Putin warning

WWW.FRANCE24.COM

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President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that there would be “serious consequences” if Western countries allowed Ukraine to use their weapons to strike targets in Russia, as sought by Kyiv.

 

 

 

 

[TUFKAK]

Let the euros fight their own wars 

[CitizenVectron]

18 minutes ago, TUFKAK said:

Let the euros fight their own wars 

 

*With permission to use the weapons given to them however they want

[Massdriver]

I am all for helping Ukraine. I think there is justified concern though that escalating the conflict with Russia increases the probability of a nuclear exchange. The chances aren’t high, but any increase at all is concerning. I imagine there is some middle ground here that allows Ukraine to strike more targets in Russia with our weapons without increasing it much. 

[TUFKAK]

Soldiers in Ukraine say US-supplied tanks have made them targets for Russian strikes | CNN

WWW.CNN.COM

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The Ukrainian request for complex and heavy Abrams tanks sparked significant debate in early 2023.

 

[CayceG]

10 hours ago, Massdriver said:

I am all for helping Ukraine. I think there is justified concern though that escalating the conflict with Russia increases the probability of a nuclear exchange. The chances aren’t high, but any increase at all is concerning. I imagine there is some middle ground here that allows Ukraine to strike more targets in Russia with our weapons without increasing it much. 

 

Providing Abrams tanks, F-16s, long range missiles, etc won't increase the risks of nuclear war. This is what Sullivan thinks (and that's all that matters) but the strike on the long range anti-ICBM radar actually DOES increase the risk. 

 

The increase in risk doesn't come from Russia wanting to respond and escalate. The risk is in that Russia needs to know that missiles aren't coming from Turkey (a NATO country and base for American nukes) and losing that radar means they can't be sure. At a time when dialogue between the US and Russia is almost nil and relations are nearly hostile, Russia is more likely to doubt messaging and rely on what they can see. If they can't see... That's a risk. 

 

 

Ukraine should be given free reign to attack what they need to for success here, but that should exclude the nuclear early warning network at a minimum. 

[CayceG]

Also, hot off the presses. The Swedish Minister of Defense posted a series of tweets this morning announcing a new round of aid to Ukraine:

 

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Just announced: Sweden will donate a new military capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Package 16 will be the largest 🇸🇪 military aid package yet at €1,16bln. Sweden will donate Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to 🇺🇦.

ASC 890 will provide 🇺🇦 with a new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. 🇺🇦 capability to identify targets at long range will be strengthened. They will act as a force multiplier with the introduction of F-16. AMRAAMs will also be donated. 

Sweden will also donate its entire stock of armoured tracked personnel carriers (PBV 302) to support the reconstruction of new Ukrainian brigades. Sweden will also donate artillery ammunition and resources for maintenance of previously donated materiel.

Sweden will also deliver surplus tank vehicles from the armed forces, maintenance of previously donated Swedish materiel, financial support to capability coalitions and to funds and temporary initiatives to enable swift and large-scale procurement of materiel to Ukraine. 

The Swedish Defence Research Agency will also be tasked with supporting Ukraine in establishing its own defence research institute. 

Furthermore, Ukraine’s command and control capability will be strengthened in the package through a donation of terminals with subscriptions for satellite communications. 
 

 

The ASC 890 is a propeller driven AWACS airborne control airplane. The AMRAAM delivery is probably the biggest thing in combination with that to provide Ukraine with a boost in its air defenses. 

 

Military support package 16 to Ukraine – new capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence and support to meet its prioritised needs - Government.se

WWW.GOVERNMENT.SE

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Today, 29 May, the Government is presenting its 16th and largest military support package to Ukraine to date since Russia’s full-scale invasion...

 

[Jason]

33 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

Providing Abrams tanks, F-16s, long range missiles, etc won't increase the risks of nuclear war. This is what Sullivan thinks (and that's all that matters) but the strike on the long range anti-ICBM radar actually DOES increase the risk. 

 

The increase in risk doesn't come from Russia wanting to respond and escalate. The risk is in that Russia needs to know that missiles aren't coming from Turkey (a NATO country and base for American nukes) and losing that radar means they can't be sure. At a time when dialogue between the US and Russia is almost nil and relations are nearly hostile, Russia is more likely to doubt messaging and rely on what they can see. If they can't see... That's a risk. 

 

 

Ukraine should be given free reign to attack what they need to for success here, but that should exclude the nuclear early warning network at a minimum. 

 

But of course it seems like what Sullivan is achieving is less control over what Ukraine hits since we're just saying don't hit anything in Russia, which is of course unrealistic, so they're not going to listen or consult on what they should hit in Russia,

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, CayceG said:

Also, hot off the presses. The Swedish Minister of Defense posted a series of tweets this morning announcing a new round of aid to Ukraine:

 

 

The ASC 890 is a propeller driven AWACS airborne control airplane. The AMRAAM delivery is probably the biggest thing in combination with that to provide Ukraine with a boost in its air defenses. 

 

Military support package 16 to Ukraine – new capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence and support to meet its prioritised needs - Government.se

WWW.GOVERNMENT.SE

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Today, 29 May, the Government is presenting its 16th and largest military support package to Ukraine to date since Russia’s full-scale invasion...

 

 

The two AWACS planes will be really great when used in conjunction with the F-16s.

[Massdriver]

4 hours ago, CayceG said:

 

Providing Abrams tanks, F-16s, long range missiles, etc won't increase the risks of nuclear war. This is what Sullivan thinks (and that's all that matters) but the strike on the long range anti-ICBM radar actually DOES increase the risk. 

 

The increase in risk doesn't come from Russia wanting to respond and escalate. The risk is in that Russia needs to know that missiles aren't coming from Turkey (a NATO country and base for American nukes) and losing that radar means they can't be sure. At a time when dialogue between the US and Russia is almost nil and relations are nearly hostile, Russia is more likely to doubt messaging and rely on what they can see. If they can't see... That's a risk. 

 

 

Ukraine should be given free reign to attack what they need to for success here, but that should exclude the nuclear early warning network at a minimum. 

 

 I disagree with Sullivan. I strongly agree with you and others here that striking anti-ICBM radar increases the risk. I haven't read why Ukraine struck this target, but it doesn't take an in depth study to understand why this is risky and bad for Ukraine.

[CayceG]

21 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

 

 I disagree with Sullivan. I strongly agree with you and others here that striking anti-ICBM radar increases the risk. I haven't read why Ukraine struck this target, but it doesn't take an in depth study to understand why this is risky and bad for Ukraine.

 

I think they struck it because it maybe had some utility to detect ATACMS launches into Crimea. I'm not sure it does though. 

[CitizenVectron]

Just a moment...

WWW.POLITICO.COM

 

 

Good.

 

[Spork3245]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Some good news:

 

 

Also Ukraine now seemingly has all versions of ATACMS, including the larger unitary warhead. Last night they performed long-range strikes on the ferry port right next to the Kerch bridge.

[CitizenVectron]

Big:

 

Just a moment...

WWW.POLITICO.COM

 

Appears limited to the Kharkiv defense (where Ukraine is holding quite well, now, but still has been unable to attack Russians massing across the border), but hopefully it expands to include airbases and other military targets that are involved in air strikes. REALLY hoping it includes ATACMS use on airfields holding strategic bombers.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The details from the Politico article:

 

 

Analysis:

 

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In effect, Ukraine can now use US-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory.

 

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But the US official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

 

[Uaarkson]

It blows my mind that we participate in this farce of “the rules of engagement”

[CitizenVectron]

17 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

It blows my mind that we participate in this farce of “the rules of engagement”

 

Yep. If every single useful defense against Russia is crossing a line, then the US might as well cede the entire non-NATO world to Russia and China right now.

[CitizenVectron]

More info:

 

US providing permission for HIMARS and artillery strikes into Belgorod province. Fair targets are military groupings, command and control posts, ammo depots, AA sites, missile and artillery units.

[CitizenVectron]

Germany has also now given Ukraine permission to use weapons on Russian military targets.

 

In other insane news, UK believes is currently  suffering 1,200 casualties per day on average through May. Insane numbers. 500,000 total Russian casualties so far: