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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (27 June 2024) - US/Israel in talks to supply 8 Patriot systems to Ukraine

CitizenVectron
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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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E1D-sjHVUAAKH_8.jpg

 

On the face of it this seems absurd. However, Bellingcat's founder recently said that their sources in Russia have confirmed that Putin is very, very isolated from anyone but his closest staff, and that there is a real chance they are all just feeding him optimistic assessments of everything. Either way it's fucked up—either Putin knows how bad things are and doesn't care, or he doesn't know, and there is no one really in control of the details.

 

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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I hope this buries the ludicrous "Polish MiG-29 Plan" once and for all:

 

 From The Guardian:

 

Quote

 

John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, has been talking about the plan to deliver Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. In short, the plan is off.


He said the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin had being talking to his Polish counterpart, and had “stressed that we do not support the transfer of additional fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force at this time, and therefore had no desire to see them in our custody either.”


Kirby went through the reasons, the US was against the transfer of combat aircraft.


“First, we believe the best way to support Ukrainian defense is by providing them the weapons and the systems that they need most to defeat Russian aggression, in particular, anti-armor and air-defense. We, along with other nations, continue to send them these weapons and we know that they’re being used with great effect. The slow Russian advance in the north and the contested airspace over Ukraine is evidence alone of that.”

 

“Although Russian air capabilities are significant, their effectiveness has been limited due to Ukrainian strategic operational and tactical ground-based air-defense systems surface to air missiles, and Manpads [shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles]. Secondly, the Ukrainian Air Force currently has several squadrons of fully mission capable aircraft. We assess that adding aircraft to the Ukrainian inventory is not likely to significantly change the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Force relative to Russian capabilities. Therefore, we believe that the gain from transferring those MIG-29s is low.”

 

“Finally, the intelligence community has assessed the transfer of MiG-29s to Ukraine may be mistaken as escalatory and could result in a significant Russian reaction that might increase the prospects of a military escalation with Nato. Therefore, we also assess the transfer of the MiG 29 to Ukraine to be high risk. We also believe that there are alternative options that are much better suited to support the Ukrainian military in their fight against Russia. We will continue to pursue those options.”

 

 

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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28 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

For which European intelligence service was this "senior" official speaking?  The British?  The French? The Germans?  That REALLY makes a difference as to how much stock should be placed in this information.

 

For my part, I'm gonna stick with the more conservative US intelligence analysis, thank you very much.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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12 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

 

For which European intelligence service was this "senior" official speaking?  The British?  The French? The Germans?  That REALLY makes a difference as to how much stock should be placed in this information.

 

For my part, I'm gonna stick with the more conservative US intelligence analysis, thank you very much.

 

If it was the Germans then the report would be "Wait, ze Russians are in which country?!"

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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Today's campaign update from the ISW:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
Russian operations to continue the encirclement of and assault on Kyiv have likely begun, although on a smaller scale and in a more ad hoc manner than ISW expected. The equivalent of a Russian reinforced brigade reportedly tried to advance toward Kyiv

 

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Russian operations to continue the encirclement of and assault on Kyiv have likely begun, although on a smaller scale and in a more ad hoc manner than ISW expected. The equivalent of a Russian reinforced brigade reportedly tried to advance toward Kyiv through its western outskirts and made little progress. Smaller operations continued slowly to consolidate and gradually to extend the encirclement to the southwest of the capital. Russian operations in the eastern approaches to Kyiv remain in a lull, likely because the Russians are focusing on securing the long lines of communication running to those outskirts from Russian bases around Sumy and Chernihiv in the face of skillful and determined Ukrainian harassment of those lines. The battle for Kyiv is likely to continue to be a drawn-out affair unless the Russians can launch a more concentrated and coherent attack than they have yet shown the ability to conduct.

 

The Russian military is clearly struggling to mobilize reserve manpower to offset losses and fill out new units. The Kremlin admitted that conscripts have been fighting in Ukraine (in violation of Russian law) for the first time on March 9, although in a customarily bizarre fashion: according to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin himself discovered that conscripts were operating in Ukraine while he was reviewing a report on the conflict. The Kremlin says Russian military judicial authorities will reportedly open an investigation into this practice and punish those responsible.[1] Putin himself would, of course, ultimately be responsible for having issued the mobilization orders that sent conscripts to the front. Reports have also surfaced that students at medical and theater schools were being conscripted in late February, along with some denials of those reports.[2] Social media users also flagged the movement of Russian peacekeeping forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, speculating that they may be withdrawing to participate in the war in Ukraine.[3] ISW cannot independently verify any of these reports. Their general tenor, however, aligns with our published assessment that Russia faces challenges in generating a new wave of combat-effective reservists or recruits in a short period of time and our assessment that Russia will need such a wave to complete its objectives.[4]

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces have likely begun renewed offensive operations into Kyiv and to continue its encirclement on the west, but have not made much progress.
  • Russian troops east of the Dnipro near Kyiv are likely attempting to consolidate their lines of communication against significant Ukrainian counter-attacks and disruption to set conditions for attacking the capital from the east.
  • Russia is unlikely to attempt to seize Kharkiv through a ground offensive in the coming days, but will probably continue efforts to encircle and/or bypass it.
  • Russian and Russian proxy forces in Donetsk and Luhansk are driving to gain control of the full territorial extent of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but have not yet done so.
  • Mariupol remains encircled and under bombardment.
  • Russian forces continue to prepare for operations against Zaporizhya City but have not yet initiated them at scale.
  • Russian forces from Kherson appear to be encircling Mykolayiv from the east but have not yet crossed the Southern Bug River. Russian operations against Odesa are unlikely to commence before Russia establishes a secure line of control from Crimea across the Southern Bug.

 

     

    DraftUkraineCoTMarch9,2022.png

     

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    SuperSpreader

    SuperSpreader

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    39 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

    Sounds like the Ukrainians are making effective strikes at the Russian forces moving towards Kyiv from the east. Sounds like around 20 tanks were ambushed and destroyed, and the commander of one regiment was killed.

    I hope they are moving into a Ukrainian death trap. I hope Ze is like sikes suckaz we in another castle also you dead. 

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