Jump to content

Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (27 June 2024) - US/Israel in talks to supply 8 Patriot systems to Ukraine

CitizenVectron
 Share

Recommended Posts

CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

Posted
  • Author
Posted

So, the next week or two will be interesting for Russia's resolve, not only because they are obviously short on a lot of things. Apparently all of the deployed conscripts are scheduled to be rotated by April 1st, and to be replaced by new conscripts. However, Russian law prevents conscripts from being deployed to war. Putin claims that this was done without his permission (and he'll scapegoat someone for it), so that let him get away with the first batch of soldiers. But what happens now? Does Putin ship back 80,000 conscripts and force a new batch into Ukraine? The public won't like that. Does he force the existing ones to stay? The public won't like that either. I mean, obviously Putin doesn't care a whole lot what his public thinks, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Well this answers my previous question. It appears the current deployment may not be rotating back to Russia. Instead, more troops will be brought in from the eastern and pacific zones to hold current ground while the existing conscripts and others push forward:

 

 

 

At least, that may be Russia's plan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Reputator

Reputator

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

They conned our edgy teenage minds with cool names like Sidewinder and Phoenix, then we grew up and they gave us bullshit like AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) and JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile).

 

No matter how many times I read the name MANPADS I just can't take it seriously.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

So, the next week or two will be interesting for Russia's resolve, not only because they are obviously short on a lot of things. Apparently all of the deployed conscripts are scheduled to be rotated by April 1st, and to be replaced by new conscripts. However, Russian law prevents conscripts from being deployed to war. Putin claims that this was done without his permission (and he'll scapegoat someone for it), so that let him get away with the first batch of soldiers. But what happens now? Does Putin ship back 80,000 conscripts and force a new batch into Ukraine? The public won't like that. Does he force the existing ones to stay? The public won't like that either. I mean, obviously Putin doesn't care a whole lot what his public thinks, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

Many of the Russian conscripts currently in-theater claim that they've been forced to sign contracts which means they won't be rotating out.

  • Guillotine 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chairslinger

Chairslinger

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Well this answers my previous question. It appears the current deployment may not be rotating back to Russia. Instead, more troops will be brought in from the eastern and pacific zones to hold current ground while the existing conscripts and others push forward:

 

 

 

At least, that may be Russia's plan.

 

 

Seems like not a great indication of the quality of the call-ups if they are the ones that are going to "hold ground" while these units that have been beaten to powder, exhausted, and starved for a month are expected to be the ones to push the advance.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

Posted
Posted

ISW analysis for 16 March 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol. Russian efforts to deploy forces from Armenia, its proxy states in Georgia, and

 

Quote

 

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol. Russian efforts to deploy forces from Armenia, its proxy states in Georgia, and reserve units in the Eastern Military District will not provide Russian forces around Kyiv with the combat power necessary to complete the encirclement of the city in the near term. Russian forces made limited, unsuccessful attacks northwest of Kyiv and did not conduct offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine, toward Kharkiv, or toward Mykolayiv. Russian forces did make limited territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast and around Mariupol and continued to target civilian infrastructure in the city. Russian forces will likely continue to reduce the Mariupol pocket in the coming days, but Russian forces likely remain unable to conduct simultaneous attacks along multiple axes of advance.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russia is deploying reserves from Armenia and South Ossetia and cohering new battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the remnants of units lost early in the invasion. These reinforcements will likely face equal or greater command and logistics difficulties to current frontline Russian units.
  • President Zelensky created a new joint military-civilian headquarters responsible for the defense of Kyiv on March 15.
  • Russian forces conducted several failed attacks northwest of Kyiv and no offensive operations northeast of Kyiv on March 16.
  • Russian forces continue to shell civilian areas of Kharkiv, but will be unlikely to force the city to surrender without encircling it—which Russian forces appear unable to achieve.
  • Russian forces continued to reduce the Mariupol pocket on March 16. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in the city, targeting refugees and civilian infrastructure.
  • Ukrainian Forces claimed to have killed the commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army’s 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol on March 15. If confirmed, Miyaev would be the fourth Russian general officer killed in Ukraine; his death would be a major blow to the 150th Motor Rifle Division, Russia’s principal maneuver unit in Donbas.
  • Russian warships shelled areas of Odesa Oblast on March 16 but Russian Naval Infantry remain unlikely to conduct an unsupported amphibious landing.

 

Russia is increasingly pulling forces from its international bases and redeploying damaged units that were rotated out early in the invasion of Ukraine to replace mounting casualties. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are deploying additional Eastern Military District (EMD) reserves to Ukraine as of March 16.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian command “refused” to deploy elements of the 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) to the Kyiv advance “due to heavy losses in the south.”[2] It is unclear if the Ukrainian General Staff means Ukraine intercepted a request by Russian commanders around Kyiv for reinforcements from the 5th CAA that was denied, or if they are only assessing that Russian casualties in the south are draining reinforcements initially intended for Kyiv. Social media users observed elements of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army based in Russia‘s proxy republic in Georgia, South Ossetia, redeploying in likely transit to Ukraine on March 15.[3] Russia has already pulled forces from its base in Armenia and will likely soon redeploy forces from its base in Tajikistan. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russia is forming additional battalion tactical groups (BTGs) by consolidating units that suffered losses in the first 10 days of the Russian invasion and graduating cadets from military higher education early to replace officer losses.[4] Russian forces will likely face further difficulties integrating these units into its command and logistics structures.

 

 

 

DraftUkraineCoTMarch16,2022.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SuperSpreader

SuperSpreader

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

The fact that Russia is pulling "peacekeeping" troops out of Georgia and Armenia shoes how badly this is going for them. And they can only get a few thousand from there, not enough to make a real difference in Ukraine.

 

Hopefully it's enough that people rebel there, how many fronts can Russia fight?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...