mclumber1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, marioandsonic said: I feel like I have to read a few new pages in this thread every time I revisit this site. I can't keep up! Is the situation getting better or worse? Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Yes. The fog of war along with the propaganda from both sides of the conflict make it difficult, at least from my perspective, which side is really winning. On one hand, it's clear that the war has been an absolute meat grinder for Russian forces, but on the other hand, the Ukrainians are getting pounded as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, marioandsonic said: I feel like I have to read a few new pages in this thread every time I revisit this site. I can't keep up! Is the situation getting better or worse? Ukraine is "winning" in the sense that they appear to be extracting massive losses from the Russians. If Russia is willing to sustain these losses in the long term, then Russia will still "win" based on the military differential between the two nations. When I say "win," I mean militarily defeat an organized Ukrainian military. In terms of actually occupying/controlling Ukraine (even with a dummy government), I don't know how that would be possible considering the animosity they've awakened in the general Ukrainian population. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreePi Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 I honestly don't know how there can be a positive outcome in this situation that doesn't involved Putin out of power. Either some sort of coup that imprisons him or getting straight up Julius Caesared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 An interesting alternative take on an invasion map. While both are useful, I think this is actually more accurate in that Russia hasn't really "captured" a lot of land area, they are sticking to major roads and towns as they advance. However, that control obviously limits what Ukraine is able to do military beyond those points, but it's not likely Russia is occupying a lot of land/places. They can't really do that with the limited forces they are using. Even if all 200,000 of Russia's invasion force stayed in Ukraine, that's a low occupation force for a nation of 44 million hostile people, especially if you won't have many locals on your side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said: Oh shit, I hope the Israelis retaliate! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link200 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, mclumber1 said: Oh shit, I hope the Israelis retaliate! 2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: So it could be only one Israeli dead or the convoy. Definitely will be interesting to see the response. A direct attack should trigger a response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Uh oh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Oh boy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 This event does not rise to the level of a retaliatory response beyond summoning the Russian ambassador to Israel to the Foreign Ministry for a stern talking to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Always hard to get a read on what Russians actually think (as a population). Having said that: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: An interesting alternative take on an invasion map. While both are useful, I think this is actually more accurate in that Russia hasn't really "captured" a lot of land area, they are sticking to major roads and towns as they advance. However, that control obviously limits what Ukraine is able to do military beyond those points, but it's not likely Russia is occupying a lot of land/places. They can't really do that with the limited forces they are using. Even if all 200,000 of Russia's invasion force stayed in Ukraine, that's a low occupation force for a nation of 44 million hostile people, especially if you won't have many locals on your side. This is very similar the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 (coincidentally another illegal invasion!) in that the US also went in with a relatively "light" force that focused on offensive forward momentum, mobility, and speed rather than consolidation of territory. Also similarly, that strategy led to exposed supply lines that the nascent Iraqi insurgency took advantage of. US forces also got bogged down in southern Iraq near the town of Najaf for several days which led to questions about the overall American "go light, go fast" strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: This is very similar the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 (coincidentally another illegal invasion!) in that the US also went in with a relatively "light" force that focused on offensive forward momentum and speed rather than consolidation of territory. Also similarly, that strategy led to exposed supply lines that the nascent Iraqi insurgency took advantage of. US forces also got bogged down in southern Iraq near the town of Najaf for several days which led to questions about the overall American "go light, go fast" strategy. So Ukraine could become Russia's Iraq? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, marioandsonic said: So Ukraine could become Russia's Iraq? I would wager closer to the Soviet Union's Afghanistan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, marioandsonic said: So Ukraine could become Russia's Iraq? That's not out of the realm of possibility, especially as the conflict transitions from the invasion to occupation stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Always hard to get a read on what Russians actually think (as a population). Having said that: Boomers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Always hard to get a read on what Russians actually think (as a population). Having said that: Like I said in that other thread, I don't think Putin and his old man cronies really understand how todays world works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: So, personnel losses aside, what is your opinion of the hardware losses? Like, if the US were invading a country right now and was experiencing these asset losses, would there be a change of strategy, etc? I can't even imagine the financial cost of this to Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Russia using social media 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: So, personnel losses aside, what is your opinion of the hardware losses? Like, if the US were invading a country right now and was experiencing these asset losses, would there be a change of strategy, etc? I can't even imagine the financial cost of this to Russia. There would be an operational pause and someone(s) would be relieved of command. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said: There would be an operational pause and someone would be relieved of command. Didn't Putin already fire some guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, SuperSpreader said: Didn't Putin already fire some guy That was never confirmed nor verified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, SuperSpreader said: Didn't Putin already fire some guy A debunked rumour, unfortunately (or fortunately). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercury33 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said: Vatican aside, what has been Italy's position? Does the Vatican even have any kind of military/security force? The Swiss Guard but also they’ve been secretly rebuilding the Knights Templar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mercury33 said: The Swiss Guard but also they’ve been secretly rebuilding the Knights Templar. Seriously??? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: Seriously??? They can go to Ukraine to tell the Russian stronzos to get down from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said: Looks like the woman who threw the molotov had her jacket arm catch fire, hopefully she got it out quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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