Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 ISW analysis for 12 April 2022: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Russia continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on a limited basis as it worked to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and to establish necessary logistical bases for increased offensive operations in the Donbas area. Russian Quote Russia continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on a limited basis as it worked to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and to establish necessary logistical bases for increased offensive operations in the Donbas area. Russian forces withdrawn from the Kyiv region have not yet been reintroduced into Ukraine to fight. The Russian military has continued to conduct small-scale limited offensive operations on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes and has not yet gone over to a better-resourced or broader offensive campaign. The Battle of Mariupol continues even as Ukrainian officials accuse Russia of using chemical weapons on Mariupol’s defenders. Key Takeaways The Russian military continues offensive operations in Donbas and is not in a pure reconstitution phase. It has not undertaken an across-the-board operational pause while waiting for reinforcements to arrive. In part, as a result, it has made limited gains while continuing to sustain significant losses. Mariupol has not yet fallen. The Russian military continues efforts to reconstitute forces damaged in the failed attack on Kyiv in the Belgorod and Voronezh areas but has not yet sent those forces back into Ukraine to resume fighting. Ukrainian reports suggest that morale and will to fight remain low in some Russian units and areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 12 that elements of the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division are relocating to Belgorod and Voronezh Oblasts.[1] The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence also claimed on April 12 that Russian troops continued to struggle with low morale and that promised financial incentives to participate in combat in Ukraine have not been delivered to some units as promised.[2] The report stated that servicemen of the 47th Guards Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army failed to receive promised additional payment for participating in operations in Ukraine and that military leadership ignored appeals for payments.[3] The Ukrainian GUR claims that Russian troops are refusing to participate in fighting due to the number of bodies returning to Russia from Ukraine and that the Russian military is shipping bodies in smaller batches to avoid causing panic in local communities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: How much time would it take to train to use them? Seems like it isn't something you can do in an 8 hour course. Espeically the upkeep and mainentence aspect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 51 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said: How much time would it take to train to use them? Seems like it isn't something you can do in an 8 hour course. Espeically the upkeep and mainentence aspect. You know those situations where the teacher takes the test for you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said: You know those situations where the teacher takes the test for you? They're gonna have Barron pilot all the drones at the same time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elbobo Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 8 hours ago, Air_Delivery said: How much time would it take to train to use them? Seems like it isn't something you can do in an 8 hour course. Espeically the upkeep and mainentence aspect. Those drones can be operated from the continental US with Ukrainian "pilots" sitting in the drone facility, I'm sure the US service members in there as well would just be advising them on what to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 2 hours ago, elbobo said: Those drones can be operated from the continental US with Ukrainian "pilots" sitting in the drone facility, I'm sure the US service members in there as well would just be advising them on what to do. That might be a "bridge too far" for the United States in terms of effectively direct involvement in the war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 By any reasonable estimate, today will be the day that the heroic Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol will finally cease. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 IF (big if) the US transfers Reapers/Predators to Ukraine that are in fact armed, I would imagine Ukraine already has crews that can operate them. They operate Bayraktars just fine, and I can't imagine the terminal to control an MQ-1/9 would be that different in concept. But I would also guess that if there are any US personnel standing over the shoulder of a Ukrainian operator, they wouldn't be Air Force or Army. They'd work for The Company. And if that's the case, and the Russia winds up striking the Ukrainian drone base, then my guess is in a few years the CIA Memorial Wall will get a couple more stars on it that aren't explained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Politicians need to shut the fuck up until the gear is on the ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 However, the Polish are coming through: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Politicians need to shut the fuck up until the gear is on the ground I'm not sure if the Biden administration is aware of just how incompetent these volte-faces make them appear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: I'm not sure if the Biden administration is aware of just how incompetent these volte-faces make them appear. Only ones allowed to talk anything military should be Biden, Austin, and whoever is the NATO Supreme Allied Commander. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 36 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: By any reasonable estimate, today will be the day that the heroic Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol will finally cease. Shche ne vmerla, Mariupol... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CayceG said: Shche ne vmerla, Mariupol... Interesting. Are these Marines already stationed in Mariupol? Or from the north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 No clue. And it could be Azov fighters in one end of the city that were linked up with, meaning others are still likely under siege. This is all far from definitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaku3 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Winter War pt 2 electric boogalo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 The ICC Chief Prosecutor has declared that Ukraine is a "crime scene" during a visit to Bucha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 A tale as old as time itself... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: A tale as old as time itself... Yep. Russia is using mostly ethnic minorities from rural and poor regions of Russia. There are reports from around Chernihiv that some of the Russian soldiers didn't have a full grasp on indoor plumbing (specifically modern toilets), as they came from areas with no plumbing or electricity infrastructure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 After weeks of Germany dragging their own heels on weapon shipments (and even trying to stop other EU nations from sending weapons), Ukraine's ambassador to Germany shamed them, and said Ukraine doesn't want Germany's President to visit Ukraine (the chancellor may be going, however). Well...now German news/editorials is full of anti-Ukraine stories and how Ukraine isn't grateful, there should be less German help, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Yep. Russia is using mostly ethnic minorities from rural and poor regions of Russia. There are reports from around Chernihiv that some of the Russian soldiers didn't have a full grasp on indoor plumbing (specifically modern toilets), as they came from areas with no plumbing or electricity infrastructure. That anecdote is identical to those from the Second World War when the Red Army began occupying German territory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: That anecdote is identical to those from the Second World War when the Red Army began occupying German territory. Yep. There was an interview with an old woman from northern Ukraine who said her own grandmother used to tell stories about Soviet troops who would steal kitchen sinks and lightbulbs, thinking they could nail them into their homes when they returned from war, not understanding that you need plumbing and electricity to use them...and now, 75+ years later, Russian troops are still arriving without having used these things. Like, in WWII you could at least make the same argument about troops from the US also having similar experiences (coming from regions without a lot of electricity or indoor plumbing)...but not now. I actually read a good commentary recently about how rural living conditions are one of the main differences between developed, western nations and non-developed nations pretending to be modernized. Someone living in remote Canada, the US, Norway, etc will likely have access to electricity, plumbing (even if from wells, etc), internet, etc. But people in Russia or China? Not so much. Their urban areas are more developed, but the countryside is still 50+ years in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaku3 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: After weeks of Germany dragging their own heels on weapon shipments (and even trying to stop other EU nations from sending weapons), Ukraine's ambassador to Germany shamed them, and said Ukraine doesn't want Germany's President to visit Ukraine (the chancellor may be going, however). Well...now German news/editorials is full of anti-Ukraine stories and how Ukraine isn't grateful, there should be less German help, etc. I hate this war. It's just a NATO/Russia proxy war in Ukraine. I feel bad for Ukraine the most. We amp'ed them up about joining NATO/EU. Leaving Russia behind and embracing the West and it's caused them nothing but trouble. AFAIK the West isn'r helping to try to negociate a settlement or ceasefire. It's just keep sending them weapons. Which I understand but I guess the plan is just to let Ukraine fight to the last Ukrainian? It's also not loke they can go back to being friendly with Russia either. Russia is not taking kindly to this so there is no way to not expect mass arrests, disappearances, etc. Situation is totally fucked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Helicopters back in, baby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Interesting that the US apparently has already provided helicopters to Ukraine: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 300 switchblade systems = 3,000 switchblade drones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaku3 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 In an effort to help Ukraine. What is the better option unicef or international rescue commitee? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Unconfirmed, but the UK did provide these missiles last week: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Zaku3 said: In an effort to help Ukraine. What is the better option unicef or international rescue commitee? Either of those will be absolutely fine, also Médecins Sans Frontières 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 The Czech Republic has been punching far above their weight compared to anyone else, in terms of providing weapons systems to Ukraine: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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