Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 ISW analysis for 10 March 2022: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that Quote The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield. Russian forces around Kyiv did not attempt to renew offensive operations on a multi-battalion scale on March 10 following the failure of limited efforts on March 8-9. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored column in the Brovary area east of Kyiv, likely further disrupting Russian efforts to set conditions for offensive operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian resistance all along the Russian lines of communication from eastern Kyiv to the Russian border near Sumy continues to disrupt Russian efforts to bring more combat power to bear near the capital. The episodic, limited, and largely unsuccessful Russian offensive operations around Kyiv increasingly support the Ukrainian General Staff’s repeated assessments that Russia lacks the combat power near the capital to launch successful offensive operations on a large scale. Key Takeaways Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored unit east of the capital, likely disrupting Russian efforts to encircle or assault the city from the east. Russian forces continue to struggle in efforts to seize Chernihiv city and to secure the long ground lines of communication from Sumy, which the Ukrainians still hold, to eastern Kyiv. A new Russian invasion from western Belarus, with or without Belarusian ground forces’ support, appears increasingly unlikely. Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment. Russian efforts to bypass Mykolayiv and establish a reliable ground line of communication across the Southern Bug River to the north of Mykolayiv remain stalled. Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 56 minutes ago, LazyPiranha said: To think I used to believe that MGS and the whole nationless army thing was stupid. Kojima looks more prescient all the time, it's fucking bizarre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The amount of data and information about this war is intense! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Oof. Too accurate. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 To be clear, it is likely that Xi knew full well about the invasion, but he was likely informed/mislead that it would either be a limited operation to take Donbas, or that it would be a weekend affair to take Kyiv, remove Zelenskyy, and move on. It's likely that he is shocked that it turned into a major, protracted war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LazyPiranha Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I mean, isn’t everyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Exclusive: So many Canadian fighters in Ukraine, they have their own battalion, source says NATIONALPOST.COM The International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine says the 550 would-be fighters from Canada are based in Kyiv 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silentbob Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Apparently we Canadians have a few of the top snipers in the world, record holders for distance. So I wonder where they would be setting up shop in Ukraine, because a good chunk went there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Big if true Realistically I'd take 1/3 their claim for downed aircraft. Still...a few jets per day is a big deal. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Could be psyops: Ukraine invasion:Putin 'sacks eight generals' in anger at slow progress METRO.CO.UK Putin is also said to be enraged with commanders of the FSB security service for handing him bad intelligence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that the "stalled" Russian convoy to the north of Kyiv has largely dispersed and redeployed with its artillery units moving into firing positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Based on what's being reported and the overall military situation, Zelenskyy needs to make the terrible decision and order the surrender of Mariupol. There is simply no military or moral justification to allow it to continue holding out, not when there is simply no realistic chance for Ukrainian forces to break the Russian ring around the city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Let's assume Russia gets it's shit together and defeats the Ukrainian Army, then what? Where do we see this going now that we're two weeks in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 52 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said: Let's assume Russia gets it's shit together and defeats the Ukrainian Army, then what? Where do we see this going now that we're two weeks in? I expect Russia to keep shelling cities and Ukraine to keep grinding them down. I'm fairly certain Russias strategy right now is to keep killing civlians as a way to get favorable terms on a deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Everything has basically ground to a halt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: Everything has basically ground to a halt. The Russians are consolidating the areas under their control as that will create "facts on the ground" for whatever the eventual settlement looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looks like Assad's troops are headed to Ukraine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Looks like Assad's troops are headed to Ukraine I mean we are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Wait, what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Far too early to tell, but I wonder if this war will create a rift between the army and politicians in Russia, similar to what has happened in the past: Soldiers being sent to die, then being told that no, they are not dying, and in fact are saving people, even as they know their buddies are being killed for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Looks like Assad's troops are headed to Ukraine $20 they desert for Poland first chance they get. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said: $20 they desert for Poland first chance they get. Oh shit bois free ticket to European refugee status! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said: $20 they desert for Poland first chance they get. 2 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: Oh shit bois free ticket to European refugee status! Polish neo-fascists already assaulted dark-skinned refugees feeling Ukraine so I doubt that deserting Syrians would get any better treatment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 At what point do we see an aircraft carrier floating down the Dnieper? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: At what point do we see an aircraft carrier floating down the Dnieper? In some other conflict? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 22 hours ago, SuperSpreader said: Democracy is a fragile truce between warring tribes. This is true but what exactly is the alternative? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Posting “death to the Russian invaders” on Facebook now OK in some countries ARSTECHNICA.COM Violent speech can be “political expression” but can’t target civilians. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: This is true but what exactly is the alternative? @stepee 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 thread: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jason said: thread: Mobile labs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finaljedi Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: So Putin took Trump's plan from last week and adapted it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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