Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (18 Sept 2024) - Ukraine destroys huge Russian ammo depot in gigantic explosion

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 minute ago, Chris- said:

 

Is there something about the F-16's profile that make it prone to identification compared to the Soviet-era stuff Ukraine already flies? 

 

Nothing at all - it's just the expectation that the Ukrainians might be more "aggressive" in using the Falcons relative to the Soviet era aircraft and thereby exposing them to higher risk operations.

[mclumber1]

I would figure that Ukraine would be more daring with missions that involve F-16s, because while the initial supply of them is limited to 70 or so, they are probably more likely to get replacement F-16s and parts for these jets than they would their Soviet era jets, considering they were built in Russia - the country they are at war with. 

[Air_Delivery]

6 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Nothing at all - it's just the expectation that the Ukrainians might be more "aggressive" in using the Falcons relative to the Soviet era aircraft and thereby exposing them to higher risk operations.

Wouldn't having fully operational HARMs make a difference?

[ApatheticSarcasm]

On 8/1/2024 at 2:13 PM, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Nothing at all - it's just the expectation that the Ukrainians might be more "aggressive" in using the Falcons relative to the Soviet era aircraft and thereby exposing them to higher risk operations.

 

Its been a while since I've read into the state of the conflict, but what would be a more appropriate approach? What would the Russians actually send to fight them at this point?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

On 8/4/2024 at 1:33 AM, ApatheticSarcasm said:

 

Its been a while since I've read into the state of the conflict, but what would be a more appropriate approach? What would the Russians actually send to fight them at this point?

 

The Russians really don't have to send anything per se, only to maintain their current level of A2/AD operations.

 

As for the more appropriate approach, I really have no idea other than giving Ukraine as much artillery as possible.

 

In any event, the F-16s are in the air:

 

‘A New Reality’: Ukraine Unveils Its First F-16 Fighters

WWW.AIRANDSPACEFORCES.COM

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The first F-16 fighters in Ukraine were unveiled by president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Aug. 4, ending a lengthy wait for the aircraft.

 

Quote

 

Ukraine’s first F-16s were unveiled by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Aug. 4, ending a lengthy wait for the Western fighters Kyiv says it needs to defend its airspace from Russia.

 

“Now we have a new reality in our skies. The F-16s are in Ukraine,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a speech at a ceremony to unveil the country’s first Vipers.

 

Zelenskyy spoke near two F-16s—sporting Ukraine’s blue and yellow trident on their tails—while a pair of F-16s conducted a flyover. But his speech also highlighted the difficulties Ukraine still faces in the skies. The location of the event was not publicly disclosed, lest it come under Russian attack.

 

 

[ApatheticSarcasm]

5 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

The Russians really don't have to send anything per se, only to maintain their current level of A2/AD operations.

 

As for the more appropriate approach, I really have no idea other than giving Ukraine as much artillery as possible.

 

In any event, the F-16s are in the air:

 

‘A New Reality’: Ukraine Unveils Its First F-16 Fighters

WWW.AIRANDSPACEFORCES.COM

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The first F-16 fighters in Ukraine were unveiled by president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Aug. 4, ending a lengthy wait for the aircraft.

 

 

 

Are they using self-propelled artillery or is it mixed in with stuff like or similar to the M777?

 

This might be fanciful thinking but if battleship guns were still a thing, I'd imagine an 406mm version of an Exaclibur round would have some crazy range/impact.

[mclumber1]

1 hour ago, ApatheticSarcasm said:

 

Are they using self-propelled artillery or is it mixed in with stuff like or similar to the M777?

 

This might be fanciful thinking but if battleship guns were still a thing, I'd imagine an 406mm version of an Exaclibur round would have some crazy range/impact.

 

When I visited the USS Arizona memorial in Pearl Harbor this summer I learned that the Navy was actually able to salvage some of the 14 inch guns from the sunken ship and they repurposed them into coastal defense guns during the war.  

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 hour ago, ApatheticSarcasm said:

Are they using self-propelled artillery or is it mixed in with stuff like or similar to the M777?

 

Ukraine has some locally-produced self-propelled howitzers as well as receiving some from NATO states.

[Jwheel86]

8 hours ago, ApatheticSarcasm said:

Are they using self-propelled artillery or is it mixed in with stuff like or similar to the M777?

 

 

The big artillery lesson from Ukraine is shoot and scoot times are much much tighter now, to the point towed artillery is dead and so might anything without an auto loader. 

 

Even this might not be fast enough and the US Army is looking at systems ("soft recoil artillery") that might be able to shoot while moving. 

 

 

[ApatheticSarcasm]

7 hours ago, mclumber1 said:

 

When I visited the USS Arizona memorial in Pearl Harbor this summer I learned that the Navy was actually able to salvage some of the 14 inch guns from the sunken ship and they repurposed them into coastal defense guns during the war.  

Its been a while since I visited, but I'll have to go see the good old ship when I go back for vacation.

 

1 hour ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

The big artillery lesson from Ukraine is shoot and scoot times are much much tighter now, to the point towed artillery is dead and so might anything without an auto loader. 

 

Even this might not be fast enough and the US Army is looking at systems ("soft recoil artillery") that might be able to shoot while moving. 

 

1 hour ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

You've convinced me, we need to make Battlemechs a reality, they don't even need to stop to shoot and can probably take a good amount of incoming fire.

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

1 hour ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

The big artillery lesson from Ukraine is shoot and scoot times are much much tighter now, to the point towed artillery is dead and so might anything without an auto loader. 

 

Even this might not be fast enough and the US Army is looking at systems ("soft recoil artillery") that might be able to shoot while moving. 

 

 

Can HARMs on the F-16s detect counter battery radar?

[Jason]

Ukraine Had A Chance To Blow Up Russia’s Best Warplanes On The Tarmac. The White House Said No—And Now It’s Too Late.

WWW.FORBES.COM

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Ukraine is still hitting Russian airfields, but only with less destructive drones.

 

[Uaarkson]

Michigan here. The one time in my adult life I abstained from voting, and Trump was elected. Not making that mistake again

[LazyPiranha]

56 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

Michigan here. The one time in my adult life I abstained from voting, and Trump was elected. Not making that mistake again

…Slava Ukraini?

[mclumber1]

Just now, LazyPiranha said:

…Slava Ukraini?

[CitizenVectron]

In the last 24 hours or so, Ukraine has made forays into Russia, in the Kursk region. They've moved as far as 10km into Russia, taking many soldiers hostage and destroying equipment and helicopters. Ukraine appears to be pushing in using mostly Strykers and Humvees. Ukraine will say these are "pro-Ukrainian Russians," but we all know it is Ukraine doing this. Russia appears to have been caught completely off guard.

[Uaarkson]

19 hours ago, Uaarkson said:

Michigan here. The one time in my adult life I abstained from voting, and Trump was elected. Not making that mistake again

Ah yes. This is not the Trump thread. I’ll go sit in the corner now.

[CitizenVectron]

Ukraine has not made any official statements on the incursion into Russia, all information so far is coming from panicked Russian regulars, and the local government. Talk of the largest local town Sudzha (which is very close to this incursion) being evacuated, but it looks like Ukraine may have remotely mined some of the roads into/out of the area, and is deploying logistics to support the incursion. Also talk that the mayor may have already surrendered the town to Ukraine, no confirmation.

 

Putin is meeting with his security council, I imagine they are trying to pressure the US to insist that Ukraine back off.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

What an absolutely useless waste of materiel and personnel on the part of the UAF for what will be ultimately little strategic or tactical gain.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

What an absolutely useless waste of materiel and personnel on the part of the UAF for what will be ultimately little strategic or tactical gain.

 

 

 

Yeah, I hope they withdraw quickly. If they can do short incursions and waste Russian materiel (and more importantly, draw Russian troops away from other areas) then that's fine, but they shouldn't waste any lives or important gear.

[mclumber1]

12 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

What an absolutely useless waste of materiel and personnel on the part of the UAF for what will be ultimately little strategic or tactical gain.

 

 

 

The only thought I had on this incursion is that it could be used as a negotiating tactic when/if the war winds down and the actual front lines don't change much.  But that would mean Ukraine would have to hold these positions within Russia until that point, which will be costly in terms of weapons and men. 

[elbobo]

was this a raid where they went in caused some havoc and got out or were they actually trying to take and hold territory? 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

4 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

The only thought I had on this incursion is that it could be used as a negotiating tactic when/if the war winds down and the actual front lines don't change much.  But that would mean Ukraine would have to hold these positions within Russia until that point, which will be costly in terms of weapons and men. 

 

2 minutes ago, elbobo said:

was this a raid where they went in caused some havoc and got out or were they actually trying to take and hold territory? 

 

I simply cannot imagine that anyone in the UAF leadership even believes that this incursion would be remotely successful in holding territory.  And if they did, then the UAF leadership is desperate, stupid, or both.

[mclumber1]

@warmonitor3 over on Twitter is providing pretty good updates on the situation in Russia right now.  I don't know how accurate that account is, but they do provide a lot of pertinent updates on the war in Ukraine. 

[mclumber1]

[Xbob42]

They should just drive all their tanks straight to Moscow. Seemed to work for the mercs until they pussed out!

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

47 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

OK - that's all very well and good, but what's the point?

[PaladinSolo]

8 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

OK - that's all very well and good, but what's the point?

I mean why not, it's just sitting there for the taking apparently. Probably really not a great look they can do this, and forces them to deal with it. 

[Chris-]

1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

I mean why not, it's just sitting there for the taking apparently. Probably really not a great look they can do this, and forces them to deal with it. 

 

Given the disparity of manpower, forcing them to deal with it doesn't seem like a worthwhile trade-off, and I doubt it will amount to much in Russia's public sphere given how pervasive their state media is.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Chris- said:

 

Given the disparity of manpower, forcing them to deal with it doesn't seem like a worthwhile trade-off, and I doubt it will amount to much in Russia's public sphere given how pervasive their state media is.

 

It's not even close to being a worthwhile trade-off in any form at all.

[CitizenVectron]

Whatever Ukraine intends to accomplish with this incursion, they appear to be putting significant resources behind it. There are EW operations occurring to prevent Russians from detecting troop movement on that border, and DDOS attacks have taken down many regional services. Additionally, in the two weeks prior to this move, Ukraine destroyed much of the electrical infrastructure of that border region. So far it appears the Russians haven't been able to stop them, and it looks like Wagner forces are being deployed to the region.

[CitizenVectron]

[CitizenVectron]

A bit more info/theories: 

 

Ukrainian attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast (initial thoughts)

ROCHANCONSULTING.SUBSTACK.COM

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Good day,

 

Quote

Ukrainians entered the Kursk Oblast with elements of at least four brigades (22nd and 93rd Mechanised and the 80th and 82nd Air Assault), but the number of formations involved could be higher. Although the Russian MoD reported that the initial attack involved some 200-300 men, we understand it was much larger, perhaps reaching 1,000. Since then, Ukrainians have deployed additional battalions, making it impossible to assess the scale of Ukrainian deployments. We also need to caution the readers that Ukrainians sometimes tend to split their brigades into battalions to scatter them across the front (sometimes, a brigade would deploy its battalions on the opposite parts of the front). So by saying that Ukraine deployed elements of four brigades, we mean that battalions from these brigades are involved in combat, not the entire brigades.

 

Quote

The current operation involved tank and mechanized subunits, supported by artillery, air defense, and EW capabilities. The most obvious consequence of this change was a much higher tempo of advance. On Thursday, Russian sources reported the presence of Ukrainian troops in Anastasevka, some 27 kilometers from the border. We have not been able to confirm this development. Secondly, although Russian forces did have fortifications near the border, a relatively large-scale troop deployment coupled with thinly manned strongpoints resulted in these fortifications being quickly overrun.

 

It appears that Ukraine's rapid advance is due to them following something like this:

- Rapid clearing of Russian recon drones

- Immediate heavy use of EW equipment to prevent Russian drone strikes

- Troops move in with overwhelming support of FPV drones on Russian positions

- Repeat

 

Regardless of the outcome of this particular mini-offensive (which, if it works, is brilliant...and if it doesn't, is a giant waste), it's very interesting to see the evolution of FPV drone warfare combined with infantry/armour movement. When the war started we were talking mostly about very large drones that were just missile platforms, like the Bayraktar. Now, it's evolved to what are effectively loitering swarms that just fly around waiting to see a human, and then doing a suicide run. 

 

[Xbob42]

I'm not a military strategist and know little of warfare, but could they be trying to cause enough havoc and destruction to make the entrenched Russians pull back to help clear the Ukrainians out of Russian territory or something?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

I'm not a military strategist and know little of warfare, but could they be trying to cause enough havoc and destruction to make the entrenched Russians pull back to help clear the Ukrainians out of Russian territory or something?

 

No, you're quite correct - that is definitely one of the intended objectives of this operation.