SaysWho? Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 Yes. It didn't stay at 14; it trended up to 14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: I think it's going to be hard to for Biden to lose Pennsylvania, as it's (almost) his home state. But it's not unheard of for a candidate to lose their home states - Gore lost Tennessee in 2000 (previously won by Clinton) and Trump lost New York in 2016 (but this was a given). Clinton could also claim home state advantage for NY, given she was their Senator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: While the NBC poll is registered voters and not likely (though if turnout is indeed up, this matters less), the big thing is the change it has recorded: 5 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Yes. It didn't stay at 14; it trended up to 14. Yeah, that's a fair point. Maybe, hopefully everyone but Trump's diehard fans are just plain getting tired of his schtick. As far as undecided and the "both sides are just as bad" folks I have found anecdotally in my own life one of the more convincing arguments for them is just to say, "Remember Obama? Everything else aside, wouldn't it be nice just to have a president again where every damn day every story doesn't have to be about them?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, Anathema- said: Also Biden being up seven in PA but even in OH is hard to square for me. Why? Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, Trump won PA by ~.6%, appears to me that its a pretty even swing for both states which have similar demographic breakdowns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Just now, PaladinSolo said: Why? Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, Trump won PA by ~.6%, appears to me that its a pretty even swing for both states. Yeah, Ohio is a red state now. Seems like the only time Dems have a chance there now is an election equivalent to '08 when Obama won Indiana. Even this year, I think it's a safe bet that Trump voters come home and he wins the state by 5 points, give or take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Why? Trump won the state by 8 points in 2016, Trump won PA by ~.6%, appears to me that its a pretty even swing for both states. Maybe Ohio is just gone but even that is weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Anathema- said: Maybe Ohio is just gone but even that is weird. Ohio is gone in ways you can hardly fathom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Trump fell below 20% today in his model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said: 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Trump fell below 20% today in his model. Biden's going to be in the 90's come election day, I would guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 They've mostly avoided places like Arizona and Texas and have concentrated on Pennsylvania/Michigan/Florida/Wisconsin/etc., but I wonder if with the amount they've invested in those states and the huge amount of money they've raised, they feel it would be oversaturation to put even more there than they already are and are now trying to invest in flipping Texas and flipping the state seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Texas has been poised to flip for a while now. It’s some native Texans, sure, but it’s also many companies moving operations to Texas and people moving to Texas for Jobs. I think we’ve had many blue migrants find their way to Texas from other states over the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Time is a flat circle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 If Trump announced he would ban gay people on the same day that he announced he prefers pitchers throwing side-arm, the NYT and WaPo would give 50% coverage to each (and ask why Biden hasn't come out with an MLB pitcher position). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 This is the best election map I've seen: http://www.nytimes.com//vi-assets/static-assets/apple-touch-icon-28865b72953380a40aa43318108876cb.png An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2016 Presidential Election - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM An interactive map lets readers explore the 2016 election in new detail. I hope they do this for 2020. Instead of county-by-county as most maps do, this goes within each county by precinct. So it shows you the competitive and not competitive areas within the red and blue counties. You can also click "voter island" to randomly be moved to placed that are blue islands in a sea of red and red islands in a sea of blue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 Good poll for Biden and Kelly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 And I'm right back to being scared again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, marioandsonic said: And I'm right back to being scared again. Polling has Biden far outside the margin where the race could be decided by stuff like this, it'd have to be pretty overt ballot tampering for him to lose with the way polls like ATM. Its pretty crazy though how AZ went from a reliably red state to practically a blue one from 2016 to now, and i have to wonder if thats about to happen in GA with how close 2018 was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 No head to head numbers yet but this poll is probably not going to be bad for Biden, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Biden went from +8 to +14 after the debate. Among seniors, the jump was +4 (which is already the best Democratic result in 20+ years) to +27. Biden is going to win because of old people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_MH Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Biden went from +8 to +14 after the debate. Among seniors, the jump was +4 (which is already the best Democratic result in 20+ years) to +27. Biden is going to win because of old people. Was. Now that Trump is saying he's fine and COVID was nothing to fear, old people will feel much better about getting out there and socializing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 My wife is going to vote for Biden now. She's fed up with Trump's constant failings on coronavirus. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reputator Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 7 hours ago, SaysWho? said: It's crazy how well Hillary was polling this close to election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 45 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: My wife is going to vote for Biden now. She's fed up with Trump's constant failings on coronavirus. Gonna ask my lady if she wouldn't mind if I stole her from you and we threesomed brb 42 minutes ago, Reputator said: It's crazy how well Hillary was polling this close to election. Access Hollywood broke three days prior at this point. Back when we wondered, "Geez, what could Trump possibly do to close the gap?!" I guess he really didn't do anything. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 51 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: My wife is going to vote for Biden now. She's fed up with Trump's constant failings on coronavirus. Has she convinced her hubby?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, Joe said: Has she convinced her hubby?! I'm not voting for Trump! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, mclumber1 said: I'm not voting for Trump! Jo or Joe? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, Joe said: Jo or Joe? Depends. Who ever has the most experience dealing with bats will get my vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, mclumber1 said: Depends. Who ever has the most experience dealing with bats will get my vote. Mrs. Mclumber and I are gonna have a little chat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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