Ghost_MH Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, cusideabelincoln said: The situation could swing a few people. The one-two punch of those people coming to grips with the reality that Covid does actually exist, was bad enough to force the President to the hospital, and Trump's disbelief in CV's seriousness has put other people directly in harm. Compared to doubters seeing numbers on TV about places that are far away from them, there's a more tactile, real response when you can show some of these idiots pictures of real people in real places at the point of the spread, especially when it's a person who's been in our face, visually, these last 5 years. Maybe, but that only works for those few if Trump or Melania dies. Trump survives and he'll be bragging about how it was no big deal and that doctors were being overly paranoid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: He understands the symbol like Batman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: BuT hEs NoT rUnNiNg AtTaCk AdS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 8 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: BuT hEs NoT rUnNiNg AtTaCk AdS Or attempting to have a ground game. I’m down with signaling that you’re taking Covid seriously but not with giving up on attempting to actually have a campaign infrastructure. The latter easily puts you in a situation where you can’t translate your lead in the polls into actual votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 13 hours ago, cusideabelincoln said: I haven't gotten mine yet, but with the slow postal service I will probably do early in person voting. They said on the radio here that The 5th is when we are supposed to start seeing our ballots in our mailbox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: Or attempting to have a ground game. I’m down with signaling that you’re taking Covid seriously but not with giving up on attempting to actually have a campaign infrastructure. The latter easily puts you in a situation where you can’t translate your lead in the polls into actual votes. Really? Do you have data that supports that or did you just make it up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: Or attempting to have a ground game. I’m down with signaling that you’re taking Covid seriously but not with giving up on attempting to actually have a campaign infrastructure. The latter easily puts you in a situation where you can’t translate your lead in the polls into actual votes. Get with the times http://apnews.com//branding/apple-touch/ap-news-apple-touch-167.png After pandemic delay, Biden launching in-person canvassing APNEWS.COM NEW YORK (AP) — After months of avoiding direct contact with voters because of the pandemic, Joe Biden's campaign is about to launch door-to-door canvassing across several... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, Joe said: Really? Do you have data that supports that or did you just make it up? Clinton’s underinvestment in swing-state offices easily contributed to her underperformance vs the polls, where she had a decent lead in these states. Quote Obama's 2012 campaign used field activities to persuade voters, not simply activate supporters, and Clinton missed the chance to persuade these voters with face‐to‐face contact (Masket, Sides, and Vavreck 2016; however, see Bailey, Hopkins, and Rogers 2016). Clinton had fewer offices overall than Obama, hampering her ability to effectively mobilize supporters in places like Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, where she opened six fewer offices than Obama did in 2012 while netting 40,000 fewer votes. Remember, Clinton’s poll numbers were actually very similar to Obama’s in 2012. Quote Looking forward to 2020, Democrats should not learn the wrong lesson from 2016. Democrats continue to have an edge over Republicans in effective field organizing, and given the rarity of asymmetric advantages in campaigning, they should exploit it (Sides and Vavreck 2013). Clinton's campaign organization did not rise to the bar set by Obama's in 2012. While this underinvestment was possibly a deliberate choice based on calculations of marginal costs and benefits (Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck 2018), Clinton's campaign nonetheless missed opportunities to train volunteers, gather data, and conduct face‐to‐face conversations with voters in the areas that mattered the most. I know we all want to chalk it up to demographics errors in polling, but a lackluster ground game in swing states was a big contributor to the 2016 upset despite Clinton’s favorable numbers. Biden’s taking a big risk with his strategy, when he shouldn’t be; the consequences are too catastrophic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 There's far fewer undecided voters than last time, Biden is already polling at 50% or higher in many polls in many critical swing states Both of these things are true of Biden that aren't true of Clinton It's a different election than 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 53 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: Remember, Clinton’s poll numbers were actually very similar to Obama’s in 2012. I can't remember what didn't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Very good polls for Biden. If he is able to take Florida, it's as good as over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 4 hours ago, thewhyteboar said: Very good polls for Biden. If he is able to take Florida, it's as good as over. Interesting thing about the Florida poll is it's R+1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Apparently people who had already voted on their panel weren't being included in their data going back weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Massive Harvard study finds that Donald Trump and Fox News were the biggest spreaders of misinformation about mail-in voting, much more so than Russian bots or Facebook clickbait:https://t.co/DTk7Zxss9P— Charlotte Alter (@CharlotteAlter) October 3, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said: I've said this before, and I'll say it again: Fox News is nearly the entire cause of our modern political divisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firewithin Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 1 hour ago, osxmatt said: I've said this before, and I'll say it again: Fox News is nearly the entire cause of our modern political divisions. yup they have brainwashed an entire generation of old racist boomers for a quarter century now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 It’s a shame that NOTHING can be done about it either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Lol awesome 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Post debate, pre infected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Man, they are REALLY gonna have to put in some serious OT to steal this one, eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Basically they're using an extremely high turn out model, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 41 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Basically they're using an extremely high turn out model, lol. Is that good or bad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 minute ago, marioandsonic said: Is that good or bad? It's overly optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: Is that good or bad? Good, higher turnout usually helps dems because theres more room to grow with minority and younger white voters which tend to be more dem leaning. On top of Biden eating into the GOPs typical based of older white voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, SlipperySlope said: It's overly optimistic Voter enthusiasm is higher than at any point since pollsters began asking the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 I think it's going to be hard to for Biden to lose Pennsylvania, as it's (almost) his home state. But it's not unheard of for a candidate to lose their home states - Gore lost Tennessee in 2000 (previously won by Clinton) and Trump lost New York in 2016 (but this was a given). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 53 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: Is that good or bad? Neither. All pollsters make educated guesses on what the electorate will look like on election day and that's usually done by making guesses on who's likely to vote. It may surprise you to learn different ones decide what makes someone likely to vote will often use different methods or specifics to make that conclusion. In this case deciding not to guess at who's likely to vote is as good a guess as any other for the reasons he listed; namely sky high interest. This election may prove to have a turnout that's impossible to predict based on past behavior and so there's nothing you can do but .. not do that. That doesn't mean the poll is worth less or inscrutable. The huge swings toward Biden from seniors and men in this poll is probably more portentous than a huge top line number would be. I suspect that if they went back and weighted by likely voters that the poll would look even worse for trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Also Biden being up seven in PA but even in OH is hard to square for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 While the NBC poll is registered voters and not likely (though if turnout is indeed up, this matters less), the big thing is the change it has recorded: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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