MarSolo Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Honestly, if it weren’t for Covid, I’d say Trump had this in the bag, but with Covid, the crash, and everything else, plus the majority of people’s severe hatred of Trump, I think Biden will win. 2018’s wave showed me that when people are motivated, they’ll come out. The issue is that people NEED to stay motivated now that QAnon quacks are winning primaries and the President and Vice President pretty much endorsed the movement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, MarSolo said: Honestly, if it weren’t for Covid, I’d say Trump had this in the bag, but with Covid, the crash, and everything else, plus the majority of people’s severe hatred of Trump, I think Biden will win. 2018’s wave showed me that when people are motivated, they’ll come out. The issue is that people NEED to stay motivated now that QAnon quacks are winning primaries and the President and Vice President pretty much endorsed the movement. I’ve also noticed a strange willingness to tolerate more QAnon strangeness from the conservatives I know—most of whom are otherwise pretty pragmatic center-right people. I, for one, am pretty sure QAnon is an AI. Probably Chinese-made. By the time we figure it out, the CCP will have already won the digital war and completely destabilized US society without firing a shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: I’ve also noticed a strange willingness to tolerate more QAnon strangeness from the conservatives I know—most of whom are otherwise pretty pragmatic center-right people. I, for one, am pretty sure QAnon is an AI. Probably Chinese-made. By the time we figure it out, the CCP will have already won the digital war and completely destabilized US society without firing a shot. https://www.dailydot.com/debug/who-is-qanon-jim-watkins-rumors/ Nope, just homegrown crazy more than likely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimpleG Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 And what about that Patreon page? It’s collecting over $2,100 a month to pay for web hosting, but has no identifying information denoting who started the page or who is getting the money, and no way to contact the owner. Patreon didn’t respond to questions about who started the page and who is profiting from it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stepee Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 wait so the leader of the group that tries to say its goal is to stop pedophiles and child trafficking is the guy who runs the site known for child abuse content and posting links to child pornography. It’s always the first thing you should have thought of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Outside of outright stuffing of ballot boxes, margins like this in suburban counties and congressional districts is impossible to bullshit away with vote by mail shenanigans and regular voter suppression. That said, don't be shocked when trumps armed militias show up at polling places! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 I’m waiting for some new polls in battleground states later this week and next to see where this race is at. I keep expecting Biden’s lead to vanish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Here fucking here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 It's time to face the facts and suck it up. The US is done for. Even if biden wins it won't be long before the GOP finds a trump replacement and gets in power again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Oh, there is no doubt that a Trump "win" would pour rocket fuel on the dissolution of the United States, but it's only really an accelerant on the inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, chakoo said: It's time to face the facts and suck it up. The US is done for. Even if biden wins it won't be long before the GOP finds a trump replacement and gets in power again. All the Canadians I have ever met online are either far-right or they get diamond cutters to the thought of the US's demise. So fucking weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said: Oh, there is no doubt that a Trump "win" would pour rocket fuel on the dissolution of the United States, but it's only really an accelerant on the inevitable. Rather the conflagration take place after my passing tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Also I feel like the correlation between people who are sure that the US will cease to exist in 20 years and the people that said the same thing about the EU 10-12 years ago is very close to 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 On 8/29/2020 at 3:20 PM, MarSolo said: Honestly, if it weren’t for Covid, I’d say Trump had this in the bag, but with Covid, the crash, and everything else, plus the majority of people’s severe hatred of Trump, I think Biden will win. 2018’s wave showed me that when people are motivated, they’ll come out. The issue is that people NEED to stay motivated now that QAnon quacks are winning primaries and the President and Vice President pretty much endorsed the movement. The wave of 2018 happened even despite a growing economy, no plague, and no civil unrests. It was all of a rebuke against Trump. I want to believe that same energy will happen again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 8 hours ago, Joe said: All the Canadians I have ever met online are either far-right or they get diamond cutters to the thought of the US's demise. So fucking weird. I’m cali born and raised with my American heritage dating all the way back to the pilgrims. Sometimes it takes going outside the bubble to realize how rotten the bubble is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 6 hours ago, marioandsonic said: The wave of 2018 happened even despite a growing economy, no plague, and no civil unrests. It was all of a rebuke against Trump. I want to believe that same energy will happen again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, chakoo said: I’m cali born and raised with my American heritage dating all the way back to the pilgrims. Sometimes it takes going outside the bubble to realize how rotten the bubble is. You're preaching to the choir with that statement, but you're also completely missing my earlier point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 10 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Outside of outright stuffing of ballot boxes, margins like this in suburban counties and congressional districts is impossible to bullshit away with vote by mail shenanigans and regular voter suppression. That said, don't be shocked when trumps armed militias show up at polling places! Oh yes, Pinellas is a bellwether. While it doesn't always happen, typically if it's close, the vote's close. If it's not, the vote's not. Here are some numbers: 1992 FL - Bush 40.9%/Clinton 39% Pinellas - Clinton 38%/Bush 37.6% 1996 FL - Clinton 48%/Dole 42.3% Pinellas - Clinton 49.1%/Dole 40.4% 2000 FL - Bush 48.8%/Gore 48.8% Pinellas - Gore 50.3%/Bush 46.4% 2004 FL - Bush 52.1%/Kerry 47.1% Pinellas - Bush 49.6%/Kerry 49.5% 2008 FL - Obama 50.9%/McCain 48.4% Pinellas - Obama 53.5%/McCain 45.4% 2012 FL - Obama 50%/Romney 49.1% Pinellas - Obama 52.2%/Romney 46.6% 2016 FL - Trump 48.6%/Clinton 47.4% Pinellas - Trump 48.1%/Clinton 47% Typically, the county is a bit bluer than the rest of the state, but if the Democrat is winning there by a lot, it'll show with Democrats being very competitive in the state as a whole. 9 hours ago, Massdriver said: I’m waiting for some new polls in battleground states later this week and next to see where this race is at. I keep expecting Biden’s lead to vanish. Post-convention bounce, you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, Joe said: You're preaching to the choir with that statement, but you're also completely missing my earlier point. What point. You quoted me to bitch about canadians as if they don't understand the US and I pointed out that I'm actually an american from cali. My opinion would be the same even if I was back in the states or anywhere else in the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 23 minutes ago, chakoo said: What point. You quoted me to bitch about canadians as if they don't understand the US and I pointed out that I'm actually an american from cali. My opinion would be the same even if I was back in the states or anywhere else in the world. This whole thread (oops wrong thread lol) is about people pointing out the ills of America. Good job in recognizing that along with everybody else, but openly rooting for its demise makes you a weirdo. Btw, Canadian cops kill more Canadians per capita than any other country besides America. Congrats on that. I wonder if the US didn't exist what country you guys would compare yourselves to to make yourselves feel better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Just now, Joe said: I wonder if the US didn't exist what country you guys would compare yourselves to to make yourselves feel better. Australia, duh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 There are two reasons why I think Pinellas is a bellwether. The first is that the voter registration is close: Democrat: 250,860 Republican: 243,578 Other: 199,544 The second, which is more of a guess, is that it's a unique county in the sense that it's pretty developed top to bottom. Not metropolis top-to-bottom, but many counties here are developed on the coast and then much more rural inland. Pinellas has many suburban areas, so you can't really consider St. Pete, Clearwater, Tarpon Springs, Palm Harbor, or the beach towns rural. Of the ones I've been, most of them are suburban, and when you head east, you're heading closer to Tampa, which is a big area. What that means to me is that you're not getting any drastic changes to those voter numbers. It's not like Palm Beach when it exploded in the 90s and 00s or a place like Manatee or Sarasota Counties, which are exploding in population (in Sarasota County, it's more outside of Sarasota that are seeing an influx of people). It's more static, I think, than other areas. Not that people aren't moving in and out of there, but it's certainly not seeing swings in population that other areas are that would make it significantly more Democratic/Republican. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Anathema- said: Australia, duh. Seems like it's a better society than Canada tbh and far better food. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 18 minutes ago, Joe said: This whole thread is about people pointing out the ills of America. Good job in recognizing that along with everybody else, but opening rooting for its demise makes you a weirdo. 18 minutes ago, Joe said: Btw, Canadian cops kill more Canadians per capita than any other country besides America. Congrats on that. I wonder if the US didn't exist what country you guys would compare yourselves to to make yourselves feel better. I bitch about Canada's faults as well but like you would give a fuck. You seem to be the one with a stick up his ass against Canada and trying to make this about something else then the current failures of the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Not trying to detract from Fright's analysis anymore. I have no idea why even the election thread turned into a "the US won't exist in 20 years!" Moving on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Joe said: Seems like it's a better society than Canada tbh and far better food. Vegemite vs poutine and you're going with Vegemite?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 9 hours ago, Joe said: Also I feel like the correlation between people who are sure that the US will cease to exist in 20 years and the people that said the same thing about the EU 10-12 years ago is very close to 1. If it makes anyone feel better, many diehard conservatives said the US would be done for if Obama got a second term. Their apocalyptic sentiments were not unlike many being expressed ITT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Vegemite vs poutine and you're going with Vegemite?!?! What is this, the 90's lol? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: If it makes anyone feel better, many diehard conservatives said the US would be done for if Obama got a second term. Their apocalyptic sentiments were not unlike many being expressed ITT. Shit take Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, Joe said: What is this, the 90's lol? What is so amazing about Australian food? My mental conception of it is that it's essentially British food but with less Indian places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, Jason said: What is so amazing about Australian food? My mental conception of it is that it's essentially British food but with less Indian places. I haven't actually been there, so I can't confirm, but I hear it's basically the most exciting food scene in the world right now. Just a fusion of basically all cuisines, but good. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/dining/australian-food-restaurants.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cusideabelincoln Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 9 hours ago, marioandsonic said: The wave of 2018 happened even despite a growing economy, no plague, and no civil unrests. It was all of a rebuke against Trump. I want to believe that same energy will happen again... Unfortunately there also a surging energy among the 'silent majority". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Early polling shows Biden is more popular after both conventions. Trump is not. Quote Currently, 31% of Americans feel favorable toward Donald Trump, unchanged from last week (32%) and similar to his standing before both conventions (35%). The same is true for Joe Biden: 46% feel favorable, virtually the same as last week (45%). However, more Americans feel positive toward Biden than negative, an improvement from earlier in August. Clarification: Biden is unchanged since last week as well, but his numbers last week were post Democratic National Convention. Meaning despite the attacks on Biden, his favorability rating is the same post-RNC, and Biden's favorability actually did increase after the DNC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: If it makes anyone feel better, many diehard conservatives said the US would be done for if Obama got a second term. Their apocalyptic sentiments were not unlike many being expressed ITT. Someone else (Wade?) expressed it well recently, in that life under totalitarian regimes is basically tolerable for most people. So if the US does keep moving towards authoritarianism, most people (hint: white) won't really notice or care. "I don't see why people complain about there being no more elections. Sure I can't visit Canada or Mexico anymore, but the streets are much safer." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 55 minutes ago, Jason said: What is so amazing about Australian food? My mental conception of it is that it's essentially British food but with less Indian places. Kangaroo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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