SaysWho? Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, SimpleG said: She may say it but shit won’t change, the party has made clear where they stand on it. Which is why I'm glad we have Dem activists and Dem governors who are welcoming it. It should be a nationwide issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimpleG Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Which is why I'm glad we have Dem activists and Dem governors who are welcoming it. It should be a nationwide issue. That’s all fine and dandy but it needs to be a top down issue. People need to be released from prisons and records need to be expunged and that’s not gonna happen unless the top 2 are involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: As in not understanding that they’re just a snapshot of the polled population‘s views at a given moment of time? Or that statistically the outcome of an electoral event they’re meant to predict the behavior of the electorate in can in theory ultimately reflect either the upper or lower bound of the MOE? Or that pollsters attempt to approximate an accurate view of the polled population in an election that encompasses a large variety of distinct regional populations by ‘weighing’ certain demographics rather than relying on the plain old ‘simple random sample’ we learned about in stats class? None of which really contradicts what I’m saying? Or are you referring to some other aspect of the process? Explain. I feel like the guy that says: Quote As in not understanding that they’re just a snapshot of the polled population‘s views at a given moment of time? can't possible be the same person that says: Quote Like I said, the polls are predictively meaningless until right before the election. Even Silver admits it—probably without knowing he admits it—when you read between the lines. Polls are what they are. You know what they are. If you're frustrated because you want them to predict the future, that's on you, homeslice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 A bunch of prediction is bunk, but I mean, we can certainly infer some things. If Candidate A leads over Candidate B by 20% with a month to go before an election, there is a better chance for A to win than B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, SaysWho? said: Far as I'm concerned, Trump has a 98% chance of winning so get to work, fuckers. That percentage seems low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 12 hours ago, Chairslinger said: The only hope of reversing the damage Trump has done is to beat him so resoundingly that the Republican party decides the long term damage is not worth possible short term gain with any future celebrity, populist, authoritatians(it still feels weird applying that label to a politician, let alone a president, but I can't think of a better way to sum him up). I thought after losing in 2012 that the Republican party would take a hard look at all the racism, sexism, xenophobia, etc. within the party, and find ways to move forward, and choose a candidate for the next election that better expressed 21st century ideals. Look who they fucking went with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brick said: I thought after losing in 2012 that the Republican party would take a hard look at all the racism, sexism, xenophobia, etc. within the party, and find ways to move forward, and choose a candidate for the next election that better expressed 21st century ideals. Look who they fucking went with. I thought they were gonna do that having no power anywhere after 2008. Then 2012 I thought that even Hannity talking about possibly moderating their immigration views would lead to progress. Fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me, you can't get fooled again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 I expect a Trump victory. It's going to be devastating for so many people that aren't really considering Trump's 2nd term as a reasonable possibility. I can't predict who will actually win, but do yourselves a favor and expect Trump to pull off a win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 She's comparing the Ebola crisis to this and comparing Biden's actions then (2 died) to Trump's here. She's making comparisons to other countries that were able to open up much more and keep cases down for much longer than here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 She just said Trump inherited the longest period of continuous growth under Biden and Obama and, like everything he inherited, screwed it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 minute ago, SaysWho? said: She just said Trump inherited the longest period of continuous growth under Biden and Obama and, like everything he inherited, screwed it up. #MierdasTouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 What I got from the speech: Trump drove the good things he inherited to the ground. Biden has dealt with pandemics masterfully; Trump doesn't know what he's doing. Biden, with Obama, presided after years of continuous job growth; Trump's butchered response to COVID has sunk the economy further into a ditch while other countries did a better job. Trump spreads hate and racism; Biden was the number 2 for the first black president and picked the first black woman for VP on a major party ticket. We're in a ditch, and we need to build back better (the slogan). Biden knows how. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: build back better 1000 times better slogan than "I'm with her" from 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 Just now, mclumber1 said: 1000 times better slogan than "I'm with her" from 2016. Here's how bad the slogan was: Her actual one was "Stronger together" and you didn't even remember that it was. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 20 hours ago, mclumber1 said: Harris was probably the safest pick for sure. Good for Biden. They haven't won me over though. They'll have to earn my vote. I won't to be forced to vote for the lesser of two evils. I mean, no one is going to force you to refrigerate your milk either, but you should still refrigerate your milk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: 1000 times better slogan than "I'm with her" from 2016. How long until Ben Shapiro insists it's code for Big Booty Bitches? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 As far as campaign-oriented slogans go, perhaps nothing will ever be more stupifyingly bone-headed than this gem from the Democrats in 2016: "Love Trumps Hate" How the hell did a slogan that can be easily changed in mockery to mean the EXACT OPPOSITE of its original intent with the addition of a single apostrophe ever see the light of day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said: As far as campaign-oriented slogans go l, perhaps nothing will ever be more stupifyingly bone-headed than this gem from the Democrats in 2016: "Love Trumps Hate" How the hell did a slogan that can be easily changed in mockery to mean the EXACT OPPOSITE of its original intent with the addition of a single apostrophe ever see the light of day? Pokemon Go-to-the-polls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 She's speaking at the convention! Worse than a snub 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 WHAT THE FUCK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
69los Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Biden is Catholic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jason said: Biden is Catholic lolwat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, SlipperySlope said: lolwat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Wow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Wow. Cool, but it's a national poll when the EC is what matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jason said: Cool, but it's a national poll when the EC is what matters. There's only so much he can lose by and still realistically win the EC. 16 points is like, over three times that amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Wow. Seems like an outlier. For instance: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/511751-poll-trump-trails-biden-by-4-points-in-new-national-survey Biden +4 Hill/HarrisX And: Quote Biden leads Trump by 6 points in Florida, 50 to 44 percent, and the former vice president leads by 5 points in Michigan, 48 to 43 percent, according to the "States of Play" survey from CNBC and Change Research. Biden is also up by 4 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 48 to 44 percent and 47 to 43 percent, respectively. The former vice president's lead is slimmer in Arizona, where he is ahead of Trump, 45 to 44 percent. Trump, meanwhile, holds a narrow lead over Biden in North Carolina, 48 to 47 percent. The same survey showed Biden holding a 6-point advantage over Trump at the national level, 50 to 44 percent. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511656-biden-leads-trump-in-5-of-6-battlegrounds-poll Biden +6 on the CNBC/Change Research poll The race appears to be tightening to me, but it is less than I thought according to the average here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html Trump gained some ground but increases seem to be leveling off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Wow. Interesting. Pushed undecided registered voters to their leaning and Biden gets 9% added to his 49% committed. Trump gets 4% added to his 38% committed. These values are close to trumps approval/disapproval, which is what you would expect as you get closer to the election Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 6 hours ago, Massdriver said: Seems like an outlier. For instance: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/511751-poll-trump-trails-biden-by-4-points-in-new-national-survey Biden +4 Hill/HarrisX And: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511656-biden-leads-trump-in-5-of-6-battlegrounds-poll Biden +6 on the CNBC/Change Research poll The race appears to be tightening to me, but it is less than I thought according to the average here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html Trump gained some ground but increases seem to be leveling off. RCP is garbage by the way, because they randomly pick and choose polls to include and exclude, and will drop high quality polls despite it being in the same timeframe, while including shit like HarrisX, which is just rasmussen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted August 13, 2020 Share Posted August 13, 2020 Ipsos is a B- pollster according to Silver only slightly above Rasmussen Reports. Harris is worse than both. I wouldn't put much stock in any of their polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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