Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president

[Jason]

 

[Firewithin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mike-bloomberg-plans-new-group-to-support-democratic-nominee/2020/03/05/a2522c44-5f13-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html

 

we can guillotine bloomer after the election as long as we take his money for this

[Jason]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

One of the only good things Bloomberg has done is inject massive amounts of money into jobs for Democratic workers. He is apparently keeping them all on until November to work for the party heading into the election.

 

 

[Massdriver]

47 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

Unless Biden is going to somehow turn Texas blue this year, I'm not sure what he brings to Texas that matters.

Texas House could flip blue which gives Democrats a say on district mapping. It’s a big deal here. 

[Anathema-]

Bernie cancelling a speech in Jackson Mississippi like he don't wanna get nominated.

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

Bernie cancelling a speech in Jackson Mississippi like he don't wanna get nominated.

 

He's going to Michigan instead but why focus on anything other than GRRRR MEAN OLD MAN BERNIE

[SilentWorld]

20 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

Texas House could flip blue which gives Democrats a say on district mapping. It’s a big deal here. 

Is such a thing possible?

[Anathema-]

4 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

He's going to Michigan instead but why focus on anything other than GRRRR MEAN OLD MAN BERNIE

 

Your reflexive responding to me got old a while ago. Go away and let the adults have a real conversation.

[Anathema-]

I mean let's be real here Bernie isn't getting nominated without a black constituency and cancelling on them for Michigan, even as important as Michigan may be symbolically, is another time that Sanders abandoned black people for white and that will only lose him the nomination faster.

[skillzdadirecta]

25 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

One of the only good things Bloomberg has done is inject massive amounts of money into jobs for Democratic workers. He is apparently keeping them all on until November to work for the party heading into the election.

 

 

I tried to make this point earlier... he's paying them above market rate too.

[Ghost_MH]

1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

Look at what O’Rourke’s candidacy did for races all over Texas, even when he lost.

 

You think Biden is going to excite the younger electorate that doesn't typically vote? He might make Texas Democrats happy, but they were already Democrats. Maybe I'm not seeing it. I just don't know what voters see Biden and go from being a non-voter to rushing to the polls.

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

 

Your reflexive responding to me got old a while ago. Go away and let the adults have a real conversation.

 

[Anathema-]

1 minute ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

You think Biden is going to excite the younger electorate that doesn't typically vote? He might make Texas Democrats happy, but they were already Democrats. Maybe I'm not seeing it. I just don't know what voters see Biden and go from being a non-voter to rushing to the polls.

 

Nobody is exciting the young people who don't typically vote. 

[Anathema-]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

 

Okay Jason, whatever. I'm just going to put you on ignore now.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

3 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

You think Biden is going to excite the younger electorate that doesn't typically vote? He might make Texas Democrats happy, but they were already Democrats. Maybe I'm not seeing it. I just don't know what voters see Biden and go from being a non-voter to rushing to the polls.

Can't imagine why his nomination would be problematic for young people

[Jason]

8 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

You think Biden is going to excite the younger electorate that doesn't typically vote? He might make Texas Democrats happy, but they were already Democrats. Maybe I'm not seeing it. I just don't know what voters see Biden and go from being a non-voter to rushing to the polls.

 

And states like Alabama are totally going blue this year.

[Jason]

 

[SuperSpreader]

Democrats: Bernie Sanders is like a Nazi. Nazis are bad people. Jews are basically Nazis. They had it coming. 

[Chris-]

[Massdriver]

55 minutes ago, SilentWorld said:

Is such a thing possible?

There's around a 20% chance according to Mark Jones of the Baker Institute here in Texas.

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

You think Biden is going to excite the younger electorate that doesn't typically vote? He might make Texas Democrats happy, but they were already Democrats. Maybe I'm not seeing it. I just don't know what voters see Biden and go from being a non-voter to rushing to the polls.

You’re making a different argument than what I addressed in my answer. You said if Biden doesn’t turn Texas blue (at the federal level) then it doesn’t matter, I was giving an example of a federal position race that didn’t go the direction of a Democratic candidate but also still had big impacts at the state and local level races for other democratic candidates.

 

If one candidate draws more voters than the other, the ability to help the entire ballot be successful increases. So it isn’t accurate to say it only matters if Biden turns Texas blue. He could lose a close race to Trump and it would likely lead to victories for many other Dems around the state.

 

As I said earlier, my gut reaction is Sanders generates more votes in the West, Biden generates more votes in most other places, but that’s just a guess.

 

 

[Massdriver]

51 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

You think Biden is going to excite the younger electorate that doesn't typically vote? He might make Texas Democrats happy, but they were already Democrats. Maybe I'm not seeing it. I just don't know what voters see Biden and go from being a non-voter to rushing to the polls.

You would have a more compelling case if young voters were coming out in crazy numbers for Bernie, but it isn't happening.

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

1 hour ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

You think Biden is going to excite the younger electorate that doesn't typically vote? He might make Texas Democrats happy, but they were already Democrats. Maybe I'm not seeing it. I just don't know what voters see Biden and go from being a non-voter to rushing to the polls.

Depends on what you think would have happened with Sanders.

 

Here's the nightmare Sanders scenario: turns out democratic socialism is seen as too extreme and is extremely unpopular outside of Sanders' base.  Sanders not only loses bigly, but his left-populism helps juice turnout for Trump and turns off moderate Democrats more than it helps turn out Democratic voters, negatively effecting downballot candidates.  Trump not only gets a second term, but gets a more commanding majority in Congress, and helps elect a wave of Republicans to previously Democratic state offices. 

 

If that was the destiny of a Sanders candidacy, then you could argue that even though Biden doesn't excite people like Sanders, his centrism makes it so that moderate Democrats in places like Texas will at the very least not stay home in protest, and the Dems would win more state and federal offices, even if they don't win the presidency.

 

That's the risk you take if you give Sanders the nom--the guy probably either gets the presidency, or kneecaps the Dems in November 2020.  Biden doesn't share the same downside risk.  You could envision him losing to Trump but not hurting downballot candidates.

 

But no risk, no reward.  Biden can't win; not with his history of supporting free trade and stuff like the Iraq War, not with the Hunter/Burisma corruption albatross around his neck, not with his senility--not against someone like Trump, whose going to run rings around him.  Bernie is a total wild card--because he inspires people, one could envision him winning.

 

But if he loses, he's probably gonna lose hard.  

[Ghost_MH]

5 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

You would have a more compelling case if young voters were coming out in crazy numbers for Bernie, but it isn't happening.

 

That's my point. I don't see why what Biden brings to Texas matters.

[Massdriver]

Just now, Ghost_MH said:

 

That's my point. I don't see why what Biden brings to Texas matters.

See the post by @Signifyin(g)Monkey.

[Anathema-]

For one thing, Texas Democratic candidates won't have to be harangued about socialism constantly and have to run from the nominee. It'll be easier for them to share the same stage with Biden, be on the same team, drive voters for one another.  The top of the ticket benefits from support from the bottom same as the bottom benefits from the top.

[Anathema-]

Let's be real here; the Sanders play was always to claw to the top and expect everyone else to fall in line rather than do any real outreach. That's still his only path to victory and it's a hell of a gamble on the ge.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

That's my point. I don't see why what Biden brings to Texas matters.

Your assuming that higher turnout is primarily about youth turnout. That’s not true. Turnout bumps and dips can come from any demographic.
 

Look at the 2018 O’Rourke/Cruz race where O’Rourke got about two hundred thousand votes more than HRC got in 2016, but did so with a smaller percentage of the voters in that election in the 18-29 and 30-44 groups compared to 2016.

 

The strong showing by O’Rourke brought out more voters of all ages than would be anticipated in a non-Presidential race. As expected his best age groups were the young voters, but those older voters are the ones more likely to vote in other races and not just hit the big race and then submit the ballot.

[CitizenVectron]

3 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

Let's be real here; the Sanders play was always to claw to the top and expect everyone else to fall in line rather than do any real outreach. That's still his only path to victory and it's a hell of a gamble on the ge.

 

I mean...I don't see Biden reaching out to the left, youth, or poor (the 30% that make up Sander's base). Biden has in fact actually insulted younger people.

[skillzdadirecta]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

I mean...I don't see Biden reaching out to the left, youth, or poor (the 30% that make up Sander's base). Biden has in fact actually insulted younger people.

 

Didn't he win non college educated whites in a lot of these states? AND Southern Blacks? Aren't those Demographics generally considered "poor" 

[Anathema-]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I mean...I don't see Biden reaching out to the left, youth, or poor (the 30% that make up Sander's base). Biden has in fact actually insulted younger people.

 

He should do better with that than he is but the share of the youth/leftist vote compared to the share of the black and suburban vote is tiny.

 

And there's no "poor" constituency that Biden doesn't win between blacks and rural whites so...

[Anathema-]

Just now, skillzdadirecta said:

 

Didn't he win non college educated whites in a lot of these states? AND Southern Blacks? Aren't those Demographics generally considered "poor" 

 

Beat me to it.

[Anathema-]

I mean come on how many elections do we need to go through before we accept that voters, by and large, don't pick candidates for their policy prescriptions? Sometimes a policy can be made into a point about character but that's always what it's about. White rural voters are seduced by racism but Biden is proving that they can be attracted to something else. Bernie wants to say that his campaign best reaches these voters but so far he's been wrong; a slate of policies isn't getting them to vote for him, especially because all those wonky voters went Warren 

 

While I'm here you also need to understand that the black constituency runs the full gamut of political opinions in this country that are still reliable Democratic party voters. What it means to be a Democrat is something different than what it means to be a Democrat for a white person. THAT is the conservative voice in the party, not the leaders who know they have to reach out and compromise with this faction to win. The Sanders wing wants to pass policy without regard to race and those voters haven't forgotten how that rhetoric hasn't amounted to anything; the policies somehow still exclude them if they aren't expressly included.

 

Sanders wants to get a pass on doing the work by promising not to be racist but he ignores how the black electorate views promises without action. He wants their votes without understanding that they're also not all on board with a lot of his agenda. He doesn't understand them. He doesn't understand what motivates white rurals or suburban moms.  His play was leftist majoritarian and maybe if the youth turned out it would have worked. But they didn't. And it's not. Or maybe it will in the next few months in a way it never has before. We'll see.

[Jason]

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