b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Two sundowning candidates for a sundowning empire. How apt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Two sundowning candidates for a sundowning empire. How apt. I can hear the future historians chuckling to themselves right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I think it's premature to say Bernie is actually having a bad night. Southern states aren't going to be his strength. If Biden eats away at his California totals a bunch, then Bernie is toast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jason said: That’s not what I’m saying but okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Massdriver said: I think it's premature to say Bernie is actually having a bad night. Southern states aren't going to be his strength. If Biden eats away at his California totals a bunch, then Bernie is toast. MA isn't good for him either. It's worse for Liz but what do I know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Massdriver said: I think it's premature to say Bernie is actually having a bad night. Southern states aren't going to be his strength. If Biden eats away at his California totals a bunch, then Bernie is toast. It’s not. Look at the Vermont numbers. He needed to do much better because he has no chance of winning without getting to 1991 on the first ballot. He is not hitting any of the percentages you would expect to see on a night where he positions himself as likely to get that number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, sblfilms said: It’s not. Look at the Vermont numbers. He needed to do much better because he has no chance of winning without getting to 1991 on the first ballot. He is not hitting any of the percentages you would expect to see on a night where he positions himself as likely to get that number. I haven't looked at the Vermont numbers. I just figured it was Bernie territory. Edit: Wow! Biden pulling 22% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Massdriver said: I haven't looked at the Vermont numbers. I just figured it was Bernie territory. Edit: Wow! Biden pulling 22% Yeah, Biden is over-performing and the odds he is viable in Cali and Texas continue to rise. That’s devastating for Sanders on a night two weeks ago that seemed destined to be a runaway for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Biden must've had some seriously good internal polling data after the debacle in Nevada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 NYT is projecting Biden to grab the most delegates tonight. Good golly, I don’t think anybody would have made that bet even last week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Are people really surprised Bernie isn't doing better in The South I've been telling folks for the last couple of years that he stood NO CHANCE in the South. I really don't understand why folks are so surprised. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, sblfilms said: NYT is projecting Biden to grab the most delegates tonight. Good golly, I don’t think anybody would have made that bet even last week! To be fair, The Biden team have been saying this since the primaries started "wait until we get until the more diverse states." Again none of this is shocking to me at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: Are people really surprised Bernie isn't doing better in The South I've been telling folks for the last couple of years that he stood NO CHANCE in the South. I really don't understand why folks are so surprised. Confirmation bias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: Are people really surprised Bernie isn't doing better in The South I've been telling folks for the last couple of years that he stood NO CHANCE in the South. I really don't understand why folks are so surprised. MA, ME, and VT numbers aren't great for him either NC and VA polling was not too bad for him last week either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: To be fair, The Biden team have been saying this since the primaries started "wait until we get until the more diverse states." Again none of this is shocking to me at all. Nevada is a very diverse state. Diversity doesn't mean black anymore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: Are people really surprised Bernie isn't doing better in The South I've been telling folks for the last couple of years that he stood NO CHANCE in the South. I really don't understand why folks are so surprised. It would be interesting if Biden can pick up a southern state or two. Could Georgia and North Carolina be in play for the Democrats if they pick the right candidate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, b_m_b_m_b_m said: MA, ME, and VT numbers aren't great for him either NC and VA polling was not too bad for him last week either I think THIS is the more surprising thing for me... and Texas and California. If you would have asked me last week if Biden had a chance in California I would have said hell no. Now? I'm not so sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Nevada is a very diverse state. Diversity doesn't mean black anymore Whoa... I never said it did. What the hell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: Whoa... I never said it did. What the hell? It was commentary on the Biden team's remarks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: To be fair, The Biden team have been saying this since the primaries started "wait until we get until the more diverse states." Again none of this is shocking to me at all. This isn’t just about the south, it has always been assumed the Biden would do solidly in the old south. Biden is doing way better than anticipated everywhere tonight. Sanders had a real good look two weeks back to run up a big delegate lead tonight because Biden was looking to be below the viability threshold in Texas and California, and now there is a solid chance Biden ends up the delegate leader tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I'm surprised Bernie isn't doing better in the Vermont's neighboring states too... Why isn't he doing better in those states? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 It looked like Sanders would win Virginia for a solid two weeks. His lead was outside the margin of error! There was a poll the day of SC that put Bernie ahead two points! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firewithin Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 we will never have nice things Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 We're still paying attention to Polls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: I'm surprised Bernie isn't doing better in the Vermont's neighboring states too... Why isn't he doing better in those states? The misogyny quotient is gone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, skillzdadirecta said: We're still paying attention to Polls? For determining how much of a surprise win Biden's victory in Virginia is? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, Anathema- said: The misogyny quotient is gone. Does Warren get blamed for if Bernie underperforms tonight? Also how are Colorado and Minnesota looking? I expect those to be big Bernie states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: We're still paying attention to Polls? There was a few polls released after SC that showed Biden with big leads so yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said: Does Warren get blamed for if Bernie underperforms tonight? Also how are Colorado and Minnesota looking? I expect those to be big Bernie states. Biden is doing so well Warren is a non factor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 After 2016, I don't put a lot of stock in polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: We're still paying attention to Polls? Being that they are good predictors, yes. But they are snapshots, which means the relative value of polls increases with proximity to the election. Primary polling is also more different in general, though good firms still do a solid job, because people often wait longer to make their decision when it is within the party they typically vote for as opposed to the general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Another question, who is Bloomberg pulling from because he's running second or third in a lot of places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: Another question, who is Bloomberg pulling from because he's running second or third in a lot of places. Former Mayoists/Klobbers And some Warrenites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said: After 2016, I don't put a lot of stock in polls. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, SFLUFAN said: Former Mayoists/Klobbers And some Warrenites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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