Massdriver Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Jose said: Bloomberg has 0 path to the nomination. He won't even finish in third. Dude isn't even at 1% in Iowa or NH! He's not campaigning in Iowa or NH, so those numbers are expected. He's dumping money into Super Tuesday states. His strategy is unconventional and likely won't work, but it already has more traction than I thought it would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination? Quote Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Right now, many candidates, even the front-runners, wind up with tall bars close to zero — generally, those are simulations where the candidate dropped out before having a chance to accumulate many delegates. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ Probability of getting the nomination right now: Biden- 42% Sanders- 21% No one- 13% Warren- 11% Buttigieg- 10% All others- 2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Massdriver said: He's not campaigning in Iowa or NH, so those numbers are expected. He's dumping money into Super Tuesday states. His strategy is unconventional and likely won't work, but it already has more traction than I thought it would. I forgot about the Super Tuesday strategy, my bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Massdriver said: Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ Probability of getting the nomination right now: Biden- 42% Sanders- 21% No one- 13% Warren- 11% Buttigieg- 10% All others- 2% This is interesting, but so much will depend on the first few states, for Sanders. The odds of Biden or Sanders winning will drastically change if Sanders goes 2-0 or 0-2, for example. If he goes 2-0 and then comes a very narrow second in North Carolina, things look better for him. If Biden wins the first 3 or 4 states, I don't see how Sanders could gain momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I would really not like the precedent it would set for Michael Bloomberg to win as he's basically buying his own ads and influence and the like. The current PAC system is only slightly less shitty than that. But if he wins the nomination I'm voting for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iculus Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, GeneticBlueprint said: I would really not like the precedent it would set for Michael Bloomberg to win as he's basically buying his own ads and influence and the like. The current PAC system is only slightly less shitty than that. But if he wins the nomination I'm voting for him. Same. I can't imagine someone that I would be less enthusiastic about, but my mailbox would make a better POTUS than Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 24 minutes ago, Iculus said: Same. I can't imagine someone that I would be less enthusiastic about, but my mailbox would make a better POTUS than Trump. Bloomberg > Gabbard > Williamson > Mailbox > Stale Cheeto > Pocket Lint > Trump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Steyer came in with 12% from a Fox News NV poll where hes tied for 3rd and 15% in SC putting him in second there, getting him on the debate stage, basically him and bloomberg are blowing wads of cash in states the other dems can't afford or havent started ads in and its working. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: Steyer came in with 12% from a Fox News NV poll where hes tied for 3rd and 15% in SC putting him in second there, getting him on the debate stage, basically him and bloomberg are blowing wads of cash in states the other dems can't afford or havent started ads in and its working. I fear this will work well when there isn't 1-2 people as the clear, consistent leaders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Is Steyer closer to Biden/Butti or Warren? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 hours ago, thewhyteboar said: The Return of the Inexplicable Republican Best Friend Quote “Michael Bennet Could Be the Answer to the Question Every Democrat Is Asking,” declared former GOP Rep. Joe Scarborough (Washington Post, 2/11/19), referring to the centrist Democratic senator from Colorado. “GOP Pollster Warns Progressives Could Inflict Long-Term Damage to Dems” was a report in The Hill (12/3/18), highlighting Republican operative Ed Goeas’ contention that “moving left” “ends up hurting the [Democratic] party.” “As centrists, Democrats would clean up in 2020, but instead, it’s leftward ho!” was National Review‘s promotion (Twitter (2/15/19) of an article by Michael Brendan Dougherty that counseled Dems, “Avoid talking about impeachment and stick to simple bread-and-butter issues.” “Joe Biden is a gaffe-prone 75-year-old Washington veteran—who is exactly what Democrats need,” wrote National Review editor Rich Lowry (11/20/18). “The play for Democrats should be obvious…. Go with Joe Biden or someone like him with a Midwestern or working-class sensibility.” In “Democrats Need to Beware Their Loony Left” (Washington Post, 2/13/19), conservative columnist Max Boot warned Dems not to “turn themselves into the far-left caricatures that Trump and Fox News would like them to become.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The trick to having your opinion matter in the press is to be 62-years old and white. Also go for breakfast in a diner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Okay Bloomberg. But I wish you'd just do this instead of running. Quote WASHINGTON — Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s massive campaign apparatus and an army of some 500 staffers will march on through the general election in November even if he loses the Democratic nomination, campaign officials tell NBC News, shifting their efforts toward working to elect whomever the party selects to face President Donald Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Lord please let Bernie win this is all I ask Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Sanders has also taken the lead in the latest California tracking poll Quote California’s likely voters increasingly support Sen. Bernie Sanders in the March 3 Democratic presidential primary, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden following closely, according to Capitol Weekly’s January tracking poll. Sanders, who is capturing strong support from Latinos, has taken the lead in our survey for the first time since we began polling the Democratic field in September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: Sanders, who is capturing strong support from Latinos gosh darn cracker-ass berniebros Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Bernie has a lot of things going for his campaign. He has an impressive fundraiser base, and he has a broad demographic that supports him. If he can get a few more older people on board, he will have it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 10 hours ago, Massdriver said: Bernie has a lot of things going for his campaign. He has an impressive fundraiser base, and he has a broad demographic that supports him. If he can get a few more older people on board, he will have it. There also seems to be a general regret in regards to crapping on Bernie in 2016 from a lot of people that pushed Hillary. Regret probably isn’t the best word, especially since they’d never admit it, but the same ones who were anti-Bernie to the point of cognitive dissonance and over-the-top with Hillary support seem totally fine with Bernie or Warren policies now. It could also just be a general shift in public opinion on those types of taxpayer funded policies that occurred in the past 4 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 11 hours ago, Jason said: gosh darn cracker-ass berniehermanos FTFY 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 13 hours ago, Massdriver said: Bernie has a lot of things going for his campaign. He has an impressive fundraiser base, and he has a broad demographic that supports him. If he can get a few more older people on board, he will have it. I honest to God think a lot of it is the socialist label. It's one thing for Rs to drop that left and right, another to label yourself that. That's why I initially was big on Warren--a modestly younger Bernie without the label (though as the campaign, and I can't emphasize this enough, dragged on this is very clearly not the case) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 If it’s Bernie, we’ll at the very least have a test case as to whether the Democrats can win with their left flank or whether centrism, cloying to the progressive base as it can be, is still the only path to broader electoral victory given the current demographics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 11 hours ago, Spork3245 said: There also seems to be a general regret in regards to crapping on Bernie in 2016 from a lot of people that pushed Hillary. Regret probably isn’t the best word, especially since they’d never admit it, but the same ones who were anti-Bernie to the point of cognitive dissonance and over-the-top with Hillary support seem totally fine with Bernie or Warren policies now. It could also just be a general shift in public opinion on those types of taxpayer funded policies that occurred in the past 4 years. I'm a less extreme version. I feel silly for talking up how "unrealistic" everything was and how she was a better campaigner. I feel if you're honest with yourself, knowing all that has been said or written, you can't actually think this after 2016. I guess I can give myself credit for liking Bernie at the time and not blaming him for her loss. But I don't feel I was logical then in supporting her and ironically fell into the same thing I railed against in 2008 -- someone telling me what's electable when there was plenty of evidence already that the sensible or "moderate" choice is a loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2020/01/10/iowa-poll-2020-bernie-sanders-lead-iowa-caucus-president-election/4426492002/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 people actively considering Marianne Williamson. She's got a chance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uaarkson Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wait who the fuck cares what Judge Judy has to say? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Uaarkson said: Wait who the fuck cares what Judge Judy has to say? People who accidentally leave the TV on after the 6:30 network news. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Jwheel86 said: People who accidentally leave the TV on after the 6:30 network news. Primetime? You think very highly of her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Judge Judy should run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 hours ago, Jwheel86 said: People who accidentally leave the TV on after the 6am network news. FTFY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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