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Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president


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2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

True. I was too young at the time to know much about the 2000 election, but looking back it seems like the general perception was that Bush was a reasonable, moderate Republican compared to how he turned out (pre-9/11, obviously). I mean obviously he was going to do the normal evil republican bullshit like take money from the poor and give to the rich.

 

They branded it "compassionate conservatism". Lol.

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7 hours ago, Dodger said:

 

The last two times Democrats tried the "anybody but the horrible evil Republican" and threw out an uninspiring candidate they lost. So yes, they do need someone likeable and can't just sit back and hope everyone is fed up with Trump. 

The truth is that incumbents rarely lose unless there’s a recession under their watch.  The Dems’ odds don’t look great regardless of what they do.  But Closing the enthusiasm gap is key.

 

That’s why, the more I reflect on it, the more I think This cycle is one instance where a left-wing firebrand who riles up the base (but eschews the socialist label and thus needless Cold War baggage), like Warren, might actually be more competitive in a general election than a milquetoast establishment centrist like Biden.

 

But the people who think the odds are against Trump need to take a cold, hard look into the annals of electoral history.  

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23 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

In general it’s a bad idea to attach your emotional well-being to an election.  Unless you’re in the military,

 

Or are a farmer, an immigrant (especially Mexican), have serious health issues for family with them, work in health care with patients (e.g., CNut), are poor, etc.

 

Personally, I'm in a pretty good place where like you this stuff isn't going to have a direct negative effect on my life. But this shit fucking matters in a direct way for a lot of people.

 

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1 hour ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

The truth is that incumbents rarely lose unless there’s a recession under their watch

While generally true in the post WWII era, there's not enough data to definitively state this as fact for presidential elections.

 

There is power in incumbency, but this truism just isn't that good.

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22 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

The truth is that incumbents rarely lose unless there’s a recession under their watch.  The Dems’ odds don’t look great regardless of what they do.  But Closing the enthusiasm gap is key.

 

That’s why, the more I reflect on it, the more I think This cycle is one instance where a left-wing firebrand who riles up the base (but eschews the socialist label and thus needless Cold War baggage), like Warren, might actually be more competitive in a general election than a milquetoast establishment centrist like Biden.

 

But the people who think the odds are against Trump need to take a cold, hard look into the annals of electoral history.  

So...we're fucked, then.

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1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

Hes working off an old playbook, they also all had approval ratings at or above 50% when re-elected, i'm not even confident the economy going into the tank would drop him more than a few points in approval anyways.

It would depress Republican turnout, I'd imagine

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2 minutes ago, Ricofoley said:

The candidate running exclusively on climate change drops out on the same day we learn the full extent to which the amazon is being utterly razed to the ground

 

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/21/753140642/tens-of-thousands-of-fires-ravage-brazilian-amazon-where-deforestation-has-spike

 

[existential dread intensifies]

Don't forget the lingering dread that comes from a presidential tirade against fuel efficiency standards

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