Yeah. National vote share was very close to the polling amount, and Trump won razor thin margins in PA, MI, and WI giving him the presidency. We may see the same thing here, with Dems getting the combined vote total for the house easily, but losing a bunch of house districts by a razor thin margin costing them control of the chamber. And about a 15% chance of just that scenario too.
There's also about the same % chance that Dems over perform (under counting/polling more marginal/less likely to vote groups) and even take the Senate, though I think this is a more remote chance.