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CitizenVectron

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    Is polling broken, or is America shifting right?

    in The Political Re-Education Camp

    Posted

    1 minute ago, GoldenTongue said:

    Anecdotally, I've been shocked by the a number of shifts rightward in NYC.  Several local districts in the NYC area, and in what I still struggle to believe, multiple major construction unions have publicly endorsed Trump.

     

    I'm refusing to feel much encouragement from the enthusiasm I'm seeing from some over Harris' early fundraising successes and such - at this point I still firmly believe that we will see Trump elected come November.  I maintain a distant hope that I end up surprised.

     

    Centre and centre-left parties in the US/Canada have utterly failed to protect the middle/lower class over the last 30+ years (in terms of housing, education prices, etc), so they are looking at the other side to fix those things (and of course are getting big promises that will never be fulfilled). But it shouldn't surprise anyone that if Democrats (and Liberals in Canada) say they are for working people but then do nothing to address the biggest concerns that those voters would look elsewhere.

    • Halal 2

    Is polling broken, or is America shifting right?

    in The Political Re-Education Camp

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

    In Canada, there has been a large shift to the "right-of-centre" parties according to polls.

    Younger Canadians and men are the groups that, according to polling,  are a group that have changed their allegiance the most.

    Men of all ages overwhelmingly support our conservative parties, but surprisingly, Millenial/GenX women do as well.  (Boomer/Silent Gen women support the Liberals in general, Gen Z women the NDP).

     

    I suspect it's more of a reaction to the present economic environment and a rejection of the ruling Liberals, rather than a long-term ideology shift.  [To be fair, all of the parties have moved further to the left over time, so it could be that the party ideologies have moved faster than those of the general population.]

    Of course, the right-of-centre mainstream parties are not like the Republicans in most of Canada (with the Prairies being a notable exception).

     

    Yeah, I think the current polling, which is roughly below, is wanting to vote out the current Liberal government more than anything (Canada generally votes against parties more than for them):

    • Conservative (conservative) - 41%
    • Liberal (centrist) - 26%
    • NDP (left) - 18%

    I suspect around 50-60% of the country would still vote Liberal/NDP in future elections. I would guess the Conservatives win a majority next year, and then likely another majority/minority after that. Then when the housing crisis has still only gotten worse (since it's driven by provincial/city policies, not federal), the pendulum will swing back.

    Is polling broken, or is America shifting right?

    in The Political Re-Education Camp

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

     

    Economically left-wing/culturally right-wing seems to be the increasingly common pattern.  People essentially rejecting the cultural left, but also rejecting neoliberal economic policies.

     

    If it's well and truly becoming entrenched in the US I think the Dems could effectively fight back by running more Sanders-ish types (minus the baggage of the 'socialist' label):  old-fashioned social democrats who aren't MAGA, but also aren't 'woke'.

     

    Optimistically, the smartest path for Democrats (speculating) is like you say, to campaign on populist economic issues, and to basically ignore equality and social issues. Then, when you win, you can still enable those things, but you just do it more quietly. Unfortunately, Gen Z does appear to be shifting right (and when I say that, I mean Gen Z men) in terms of misogyny, homophobia, transphobia, etc. 

     

    Unfortunately, leftist Gen Z (which are still the majority of that age range, just not as dominant as before) are like young people always have been, which is to say they want purity in their party's positions. So they want the campaigns on social equality, etc, even if it means losing. Leftist parties need to really hammer home on anti-rich messages and helping the middle/lower classes (expanding child tax credits, free healthcare, etc) and ignore social issues (but still be strong on them once in power).

    TIME: Trump told nephew disabled Americans "should just die" in reference to nephew's disabled son

    in The Political Re-Education Camp

    Posted

    Screenshot-2024-07-19-at-12.44.10%E2%80%

    Donald Trump Told Me Disabled Americans "Should Just Die"

    TIME.COM
    Fred Trump III describes conversations with his uncle about people with intellectual and developmental disabilities

     

    Quote

    When my uncle was elected President, I recognized what a highly privileged position I would be in. I would have some access to the White House. And as long as that was true, I wanted to make sure I used that access for something positive. I was eager to champion something my wife, Lisa, and I were deeply passionate about, something we lived every day: the challenges for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities and their families.

     

    Quote

    “Those people . . . ” Donald said, trailing off. “The shape they’re in, all the expenses, maybe those kinds of people should just die.” 

    I truly did not know what to say. 

     

    Probably will have no effect, but truly horrible.

    • Guillotine 2

    Rock the Vote '24: update (09/10) - It's "Debate Night" - do yourself a favor and play a video game instead

    in The Political Re-Education Camp

    Posted

    All the hype and hope and viral memes are great (and it's great to feel those things, again), but the important part is stuff like this:

     

    yI9BKmI.png

    1oyZhUG.png

     

    20 million+ boomers have died since the 2016 election, and 40 million+ Gen Z have entered the voting population. Obviously the latter will vote at lower rates per capita, but getting them excited (similar to Millennials with Obama in 2008) is key to Harris' victory.

    • stepee 1
    • Halal 1
    • Hype 3

    ~*The Official Thread of Hero Cop Valor and Bravery*~

    in The Political Re-Education Camp

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Kal-El814 said:

    End qualified immunity, settle civil suits with payments garnished from police pensions. Jesus fucking Christ this shit pisses me off to no end, it’s absolutely horrifying.

     

    That would work. An alternative method would be to require police officers to carry public liability insurance, similar to some other professions like doctors in some places. Insurance companies will figure out real quick who should and shouldn't be an officer.

    Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (18 Sept 2024) - Ukraine destroys huge Russian ammo depot in gigantic explosion

    in The Political Re-Education Camp

    Posted

    gettyimages-2147784933.jpg

    Ukraine Achieving Low-Cost Kills Against Russia's Attack Drones | Aviation Week Network

    AVIATIONWEEK.COM
    Ukraine is transitioning to the “correct side of the cost curve” in its ongoing battle to deal with Russian one-way attack UAS, a senior USAF official says.

     

     

    Ukraine has developed a low-cost drone detection network. Basically, they have around 9,500 sensor towers located around the country, each costing $500 or less. They acoustically detect and triangulate the location of Russian FPV drones. 

     

    So for $4.75 million, Ukraine has a country-wide drone detection network. Crazy.

    • Ukraine 3
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