Massdriver

I stutter here and there, mainly when I am talking passionately about something. I’ve gotten better at slowing myself down when I’m trying to express myself. My mind tends to get ahead of my speech. Biden’s stutter shouldn’t be made fun of, but due to the job he is seeking, it should be taken into consideration in how it could affect his presidential duties. Regardless of the stutter, Biden and Sanders are both too old to be president. We have a duty to take into account both mental and physical fitness. Since everyone has gone with them, we all have to overlook age this time around.

@CitizenVectron, To more directly answer your question, Biden is running on Obama 2.0, decency, and stability.

Biden's healthcare plan: https://joebiden.com/healthcare/https://joebiden.com/healthcare/ Basically, a public option, medicaid expansion in all states, increased subsides to families, and decrease the maximum % of one's income a family pays for health insurance.

Henry Cuellar beat Cisneros by only around 3% points. That was much closer than I anticipated. It's very clear Texas has an extremely powerful and active young group of Democrats that will likely change the face of the party in all the major city districts over the next 10 years. We will need to see the general election results to see how close we are from being a full on purple state.

I'm so glad Bloomberg is out.

I’m not thrilled with the results. It’s a mixture. A part of me wanted to see what Sanders could do out of curiosity, and I’ve come around to not opposing single payer depending on how it is paid for. I’m not convinced it is over for Sanders, but not looking great either. But a part of me is hopeful with these results. Democratic turnout is up. Biden’s got excitement behind him and his coalition doesn’t depend on an unlikely never before seen surge of young voter turnout that apparently doesn’t exist tonight. Biden is based on a more typical formula for winning that relies on a more likely present group showing up to vote while being less likely to shave off a couple of points because of the socialist label. Biden will lose some Bernie voters as well, but I don’t think it outweighs the negative of Bernie. I believe Biden is more likely to take Trump down than Sanders, so from that standpoint, I’m pleased. But it’s going to be rough and I think Trump will probably win regardless of the nominee. Both of them are too old. Sanders has tons of things I disagree with him on, but I still think he’s an ethical, honest guy trying to do the right thing. We could do worse. Biden has his son which will be a liability for him, and he seems mentally deficient at times. It’s going to be rough, but that turn out!

I haven't looked at the Vermont numbers. I just figured it was Bernie territory. Edit: Wow! Biden pulling 22%

I think it's premature to say Bernie is actually having a bad night. Southern states aren't going to be his strength. If Biden eats away at his California totals a bunch, then Bernie is toast.

Look at the post I was responding to originally. There is near certainty that Bernie is better. I simply asked for evidence supporting that belief.

That isn’t evidence that Bernie would have done better in 2016 or that he is a better candidate now.

Where is the evidence that picking Sanders is a better bet?

It's a neat metric, and there's a lot of metrics out there. It's not cheap, but it's certainly not as expensive as it was a little over a week ago. Dipping into this thing isn't the worst idea, and international equities have better valuations which I also enjoy purchasing. Timing the market based on valuations is a tough thing to do with all of your money. I try to do a little timing with additions and hold the rest. Edit: What would be the toughest thing to purchase right now for me would be bonds due to valuations.

You shouldn't be getting out with your main holdings. You should be holding and IMO adding as this thing sells off some more.

This is nuts. The 10 year is negative in many other developed countries. We simply aren't there. Our economy and the German economy are different!

I meant prevailing wisdom here...

My point is that it won’t happen now. I didn’t say to not try. It won’t happen though.

No, I just think the prevailing wisdom that this is a magic formula for near term legislative success isn’t realistic with the senate.

If you had a democratic majority, you would end up there regardless of where you started in my opinion. If Mitch has the senate, you will get neither.

Sanders and Warren seem to get attacked over M4A more than their other proposals, but I'm more comfortable with it than many of their other ideas. However, it won't pass the senate no matter how many people scream or make big signs about it.

Updated fivethirtyeight model now has Sanders at only an 8% chance of getting a majority. The Biden Surge could end up being real. We'll know more later this evening. My original prediction of a Biden nomination may end up being true after all even though I renounced it prematurely after Nevada! Edit: Biden is much more likely to end up with the plurality of the delegates going into a contested convention now as well, so all the debate about Sanders going in with more delegates may have been premature. Sanders might end up having to backtrack and change his position back to 2016 Sanders to try to pick off super delegates.

I wouldn’t read too much into the 2% mortality rate. It’s going to take a lot of time to figure the real figure out. It often seems larger at the beginning of an outbreak because sicker patients are more likely to be counted and less symptomatic ones are not.

Biden is back!

If Warren had won South Carolina like Biden did, things may have been different.

Interesting, but the point still stands that there is a chance before the convention for someone to achieve a majority through this mechanism.