Massdriver

The language is changing around this entire ordeal. It used to be that we would have a bit of a dip and then a "turbo charged recovery". Now the narrative is this thing could be worse than the Great Recession.

It seems like a dead idea, but I have always been attracted to running surpluses whenever the economy is growing and spending shit loads when it is in a recession.

I also have noticed that certain assets that are supposed to protect you during downturns are not doing so. Take corporate/muni bonds, silver, and even gold as examples. They have all failed as far as I'm concerned. The sell off behavior is now more panic-like and is extremely broad based. It reminds me of the selling behavior in the financial crisis.

I am following my strategy of purchasing a little bit each day. I did modest purchases across my accounts today.

So much can go wrong, but amazing if they pull it off.

That can’t be true. Our company has around 63 employees. We are always thrown under the bus. Now you’re telling me big corps don’t have to comply? WTF

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/487577-fox-business-says-host-trisha-regan-on-hiatus-amid-controversial-coronavirus She’s out for now!

It’s amazing the amount of stupidity I’m seeing. We had a guy enter our office today that refused to sanitize his hands. I heard about a similar incident at the local theatre.

I think it shows how difficult it is to time the market which is why I'm going to go back to dollar cost averaging in next week. This is a relief rally from the lack of news and is probably more about technical factors than fundamentals. Also, Trump timed the conference so he would have everyone speak one after the other right till close. This was probably on purpose.

It surged up 7% 9%

That’s what I had been doing on down days. It’s the most rational way. Trump still isn’t talking.

I was arguing with a co worker earlier whether the market will go up or down based on Trump's speech. The argument up is he is finally realizing it is an emergency. The argument down is it's an emergency.

I was going to purchase heavy today if it went down another 3-4%, but it didn't. I was prepared to just purchase indexes 30%+ down and if it went another 20% down, I was going to accept the unrealized losses. Now it's anyone's guess what's next. My bet is we will go down further next week as cases continue to multiply. But there's also upside risk. What if we start testing and it isn't as widespread as some models suggest? What will the stock market do if they find an existing approved drug on the market that works fairly well at reducing symptoms? We can expect some heavy rallies in the days ahead whenever a bottom is reached, and we won't truly know if it's a bear market rally or not until several weeks pass or we are out of the bear.

Dead cat bounce

Back up 3.65%

My favorite ETFs Domestic: VTI- Total U.S. market SLYV- Small cap value International: VXUS- Total International Ex U.S. VSS- Small Cap International VEA- Developed International (excludes emerging markets) VWO- Emerging markets REIT: REET- Domestic and international Real Estate Investment Trusts VNQ- U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts I'm not the biggest fan of reits, but I have a very small % of my portfolio in them, primarily in my 401k/ira. I prefer broader index funds and do not think reits are necessary.

I have an Ameritrade account, both a taxable and for my roth IRA & trad 401k. You can buy these ETFs from any discount broker. For international ETFs, I focus on: VXUS- Indexes the world's developed and developing market indexes in one fund, from small cap up to mega cap. This is the only fund you really need to throw money in to get full exposure to international. VSS- International small cap. While I put most of my money in VXUS, I also invest a smaller amount to tilt my portfolio towards small companies. VSS is my favorite ETF to do this. For domestic: VTI- Total U.S. stock market is my main fund. I have more in this than anything else. It covers micro cap up to mega. For domestic you only need this fund. SLYV- This is a more niche fund, but I put a smaller additional amount of my U.S. allocation into this fund to tilt towards small companies that have a lower valuation. Here is a simple way you could think about this. Vanguard recommends that U.S. investors put anywhere from 20-40% of their stock allocation into international. So hypothetically, you can make your own portfolio with a 30% international allocation like this: $10,000 as an example of cash to invest---> Purchase $7,000 worth of shares of VTI for your U.S. equity Purchase $3,000 worth of shares of VXUS for your international equity The next part is the hardest part. Your money is going to wildly fluctuate over time, so if that bothers you psychologically, try not to look at it very much. If you can't handle the swings, that's when people start adding bonds. TL;DR: Ameritrade; For international, I'm buying 80% VXUS and 20% VSS. I buy VEA and VWO as well in my taxable for other reasons.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-symptoms-compared-to-flu-common-cold-and-allergies-2020-3 I'm not sure how accurate this is, but I think the clear difference between COVID-19 vs. colds and flu are the lack of runny nose coupled with a dry cough and shortness of breath. Edited

If the market plunges 4%+ tomorrow, I'm all in with my remaining dry powder, mostly into international equity etfs.

Capitulation begins today

Trump's speech failed miserably. It was pathetic beyond words.

I’m at work every weekday. Our operation can’t be done from home. Someone has to process food. We have sanitizers at each door with a sign. Other than that I wash my hands a lot and send people home that are sick.

Trump, start listening to public health experts more and less to bankers. His anti science bs is now causing acute harm rather than some sort of harm down the road.

I’ve been in meetings most of the afternoon. What did I miss?